Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 10:30 am central time.
A look at pitchers
This was supposed to say 9/8/2019 – oops!
To nobody’s surprise, Cole leads the way here much like Verlander did yesterday. He’ll be a top option in cash games and GPP alike.
We have a few high-ceiling studs right behind him, including Scherzer, Syndergaard, and Clevinger. Some lower-end guys that could also be in the mix are Richards, Cease, Montgomery, and Flaherty.
Offenses to target
We have several juicy looking options here with high carnage ratings and SIERAs, including Houston, Texas, Cleveland, New York, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati. We’ll have to wait and see what Vegas says to get an idea of which will be the chalkiest, but for now, this is a good start.
As always, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes pages to see where they’re leaning today for pitchers and offenses!
Full Count Breakdown
Main slate
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with our Camden Yards game, but this time we do have some decent pitching, so I don’t expect this one to get out of hand like the other ones have been getting. Texas will have the better matchup here, as Baltimore will have to face Minor and his big-game potential, so we’ll want to approach this one a little more carefully.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Calhoun, Odor
GPP note – Asher has the random decent game in him, but this bullpen is still bad, so we can still stack here
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander
GPP note – Tougher matchup against Minor, so I would be a little careful going heavy on the stacks here
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up is one of our interesting pitching options, Richards. If you look at his game log, you won’t really see anything special, but the carnage model sure likes him today, so he could be worth having some exposure to. That might put a limit on the Toronto bats here, but of course, the Rays are always worth a look with how they are quick to go off against not-so-great pitching.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Biggio, Bichette, Tellez
GPP note – Potentially tough matchup against Richards, and I don’t think they’ll be popular anyway, so this doesn’t look like a great stack target
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Meadows, Sogard, Choi, Lowe, Kiermaier
GPP note – Decent matchup against Waguespack and they like to go off at a moment’s notice. The lefties look to have the best chance of success here
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
Next up are two pitchers that are no strangers to allowing some big hits, and two teams that love to feast on bad pitching. Put the two together and we have a game that could very well have some fireworks on both sides, easily playing to the over. Give both sides a look for some stacks in this one.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte
GPP note – They’ll have the tougher matchup for sure, but DeSclafani isn’t out of the clear against this offense that will make quick work of him if he isn’t on top of his game. A stack of lefties would be a good target
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Aquino, VanMeter, Galvis
GPP note – Any lefties they play + Aquino is a great place to start with some high-ceiling stacks here
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins
After a rough start in Kansas City, Montgomery seems to be coming around, making him a decent GPP option here today against the lowly Marlins. My Royals will face Alcantara, a middle-of-the-road pitcher with a slightly high SIERA, so they could be in for some Sunday magic before they head to Chicago.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi, Merrifield, Soler
GPP note – Soler is hot and cranking out homers, so even if you don’t stack here, give him a look
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Castro, Cooper, Walker
GPP note – Not my favorite stack, but if you think Montgomery reverts to his poor start in KC, you could stack here to get some budget bats
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
After a big 10k performance against Washington, Syndergaard will take on the Phillies and look to keep that momentum going. Velasquez is looking like he might be regressing a bit to the bad, and the last meeting between these teams didn’t go all that well for him, so look for the Mets to have the upper hand here.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins (BvP), Harper
GPP note – Tough matchup against Syndergaard, but he’s certainly not invincible. Not a terrible place to go for contrarian stacks
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – McNeil, Conforto (BvP), Alonso
GPP note – This is a decent spot for the Mets to go off, so don’t overlook them today. Favor the lefties and Alonso
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Our next ace, Scherzer, will face Soroka and the Braves for this series finale. He hasn’t slowed down any in his return, and I expect him to be at his best here against this tough offense. Soroka will have a tough task ahead of him, so look for him to step his game up if he wants to hang with Mad Max. I’m not a fan of big stacks for either team here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto, Turner
GPP note – A one-off here or there or a small stack isn’t out of the question, but I don’t see full stacks paying off
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman (BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup against a hungry Scherzer. Grab a bat or two (if any) and move on
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
We get a debuting pitcher next, James Marvel, as he’ll take on Flaherty and the Cardinals. We don’t know a ton about him yet, but we do know the Cardinals tend to struggle against pitchers they’ve never seen before, so it could be a spot for him to have a decent outing. He’s certainly ready for his chance, so keep an eye on this one.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Fowler, Wong
GPP note – The lefties look to have the best chance here, but guys like Goldy are still in play for their reverse splits
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Moran, Newman
GPP note – Flaherty has some of the best combined x/wOBA numbers on the board today, so look for this offense to be a little limited
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
This game doesn’t look overly exciting (two middle-of-the-road pitchers with an average implied total), but that also means they won’t be popular, either. While I don’t think either side has a great chance of going off, nobody else will either, so you could have some stacks here all to yourself.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Calhoun (BvP), Upton
GPP note – Trout and the lefties are the targets here again. Ohtani had a big game last night and tends to keep his momentum going for a while, so check him out again
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, Goins, Anderson
GPP note – Barria has somewhat alarming x/wOBA numbers, and Vegas doesn’t seem to hate the White Sox in this matchup, so they could be worth having some exposure to since nobody is likely to be on them
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Our chalk ace of the day, Cole, makes his appearance next, and he’ll face Hernandez and the lowly Mariners. The carnage model has him projected for nearly 7 strikeouts, and it’s not hard to see why with that insane KSCORE of 782 (seriously, I think that’s the highest I’ve seen all year).
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – none? Vogelbach/Narvaez?
GPP note – Look for them to get shut down again. Pass
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve (BvP)
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley (BvP), Alvarez, Bregman
GPP note – It’s always a bit of a coin flip as to what we’ll get out of Hernandez, but this is a good time to go right back to them after they laid a bit of a dud last night
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
At first glance, the Brewers look like a decent stack against Lester and his 6.87 carnage rating, but stay tuned for the final run to see how that changes (I expect it to drop). He’s done fine against them twice so far this year, and they don’t have all the power righties to throw at him this time around. He might actually turn into a decent GPP option, so keep an eye on him!
Also, I should note that these teams tend to almost always play to the under when they face each other, so be careful with the offenses here.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Heyward
GPP note – Houser has improved and boasts respectable x/wOBA numbers, so this might not be the best place to attack.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Grandal
GPP note – Look for any righties they may have to throw at Lester, but I don’t think there will be many
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
We get another one of our carnage leaders here, as Clevinger and his 3.15 rating will take on Berrios (possibly Smeltzer, stay tuned) and the Twins. This certainly isn’t an easy matchup for either pitcher, though my initial findings have things on Cleveland’s side. This one screams GPP on all fronts, but I think there could be a gem or two to be found here.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana
GPP note – It may depend on who they actually face, as it’s a little uncertain at this point, but either way Lindor/Santana are going to be in play, even if only GPP
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Sano (some BvP)
GPP note – Sano has some BvP, but it’s not going to be easy for any of these Twins. You may want to avoid them or stack big and hope that Clevinger has a bad outing
Late slate(s)
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
We’ll kick off the late games with Manaea taking on the Tigers in his second start of the season, and if it goes as well as his first one did, he could be in for a pretty nice score here. The current Tigers roster has practically zero BvP against him, and he’s coming in fresh, so there’s not much to love from Detroit in this one…as usual.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Reyes
GPP note – There’s nothing to get excited about with this offense. Hopeful contrarian stacks only
Athletics 5 star plays – Semien
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Pinder (BvP), Chapman
GPP note – Norris is always fun to target, and this matchup is no different. Go here for your offensive needs in this game
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
We get two more “coin flip” pitchers with Rodriguez and Urias, as it’s hard to know if they’re going to put up a dud or a decent score. I would certainly give the edge to Urias though, considering the matchup.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Pillar, Posey, Longoria
GPP note – Urias is no Kershaw, so don’t be afraid to run some righties here
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Seager, Beaty
GPP note – It’s a soft righty, so the usual lefties are in play here. Don’t be afraid to go back to them after the dud from last night
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
It doesn’t seem like the Padres are worth stacking much these days, but they will at least get a nice matchup against Lambert and his 6.50 carnage rating, so perhaps they can put something together here. Lauer’s 3.93 carnage rating is the best among the late games, so he’s worth looking at (he also has the best KSCORE of the regular starters at 505).
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Story, Murphy, McMahon
GPP note – It’s not a super tough matchup against Lauer, but it’s not a great one either, so I think I’d lean more towards this one being another slow game for the offense
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Garcia
GPP note – On paper they get a great matchup, but it’s hard to know if they’ll take advantage of it or not. I think it’s worth stacking just in case they can, unless we think they might be chalky, then we could go the other way instead (keep an eye on the projected ownership as it comes out)
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
And finally, our hammer game features the Yankees and Red Sox, a rivalry always worth watching. The Red Sox used a lot of arms yesterday, so they’ll need Porcello to carry his weight tonight. If not, things could get pretty ugly in favor of the Yankees if they can get through him quickly and into a tired bullpen earlier than Boston would like.
As for the Red Sox, they’ll face Tanaka, somebody they know very well by now. Most of this team has a high number of at-bats against him, along with several home runs and not too many strikeouts. He’s not the most fun pitcher to target, but I think the case could easily be made here.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays –
GPP note – When Porcello implodes he gives up a lot of big hits, and that’s what the Yankees are built for. They could also get to a tired bullpen quickly, making them a dangerous threat here
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts/Martinez/Bogaerts (BvP), Devers, Benintendi
GPP note – They know Tanaka very well and will be hungry to even the score after yesterday’s loss, so don’t be afraid to stack here
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
