Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:30 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
There’s not a whole lot to choose from with the earlier slates, but Morton certainly stands out, followed by Castillo. Those two have the best KSCOREs on the slate (you can probably just ignore Taylor, as he’ll only pitch an inning or so), giving them two of the higher ceilings on the day. An interesting option would be Smith, as even though the stats don’t look all that great here, this is a good spot for him to have a high-ceiling bounceback game.
For the main slate, the obvious cash option here is Verlander, as he’s on a different level than nearly every other pitcher on the planet right now. That 644 KSCORE is flat out disgusting, and I can’t wait to see how high his VKSCORE is going to be after we get some numbers from Vegas. Needless to say, he’s a great GPP option as well.
There are several high-ceiling options just behind him, such as Darvish, Heaney, and Odorizzi with their high KSCOREs.
Offenses to target
Boston and New York are two primary options here, as the two teams just love to beat up on one another. At first glance, it’s hard to pinpoint other stacks, so it might be one of those slates where some mini-stacks are the way to go. Stay tuned for more from the coaches to get a better idea on how to attack this smaller slate.
The main slate, on the other hand, has quite a few nice options to look at. As far as carnage goes, New York (Mets), Chicago (Cubs), Pittsburgh, and Washington all have pretty nice scores. Houston is facing Kikuchi, somebody we know can implode at any given moment, and we have a Camden Yards game with Texas and Baltimore. There won’t be any shortage of fantasy goodness on this one!
Be sure to check out the coach’s notes page as the slates draws closer to get some ideas of where they’re looking!
Full Count Breakdown
Early slate
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
We’ll kick things off with another Yankees / Red Sox game, and as I mentioned earlier, these teams sure do like to beat up on one another. Neither team is sending out an ace, so I expect there to be some damage done in this one. The Yankees will see a bullpen game, in which Boston has a lot of righties, so you may want to consider some lefties deep in the order if you want to be a little different.
Yankees 5 star plays – LeMahieu
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Sanchez, Torres, lefties (GPP)
GPP note – They won’t be sneaky, but consider the lefties to get different in GPP
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts/Martinez (BvP)
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – Feel free to load up here, as they have carnage and the “anti-Yankee” mentality on their side
Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds
Next up is one of our better pitching options, Castillo, as he’ll host Alex young and the Diamondbacks. He (Castillo) makes a great pivot option, and the Reds have a decent matchup against Young (not super great, but it’s in their favor).
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte, Escobar, Lamb (some BvP)
GPP note – Not a great matchup against Castillo. A one-off or small stack might be best if you go here
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Aquino, Suarez
GPP note – Decent matchup on paper, but this hitter’s ballpark might help push it more than it could be. Definitely a good spot to stack, especially the righties
Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins
Duffy and my Royals will take on Smith and the Marlins next, and I could see this one being a bit of a pitcher’s duel, at least for a while. Duffy is good for the occasional strong outing, and this weak Miami offense would be a good time for him to have one. Smith, on the other hand, hasn’t been as strong as he was earlier in the season, but this is also a good spot for him to have a big game back. I think both pitchers are in play for GPP purposes, and probably just one-offs or mini-stacks from the offenses.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Mondesi, Merrifield, Soler
GPP note – I don’t mind grabbing a power righty or two and moving on, but I don’t know that big stacks on this low-owned team is the way to go
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Castro, Cooper
GPP note – There’s not really any BvP to go off of here, and Duffy is in a good spot to shut (or at least slow) down any advances by this offense. One-offs or mini-stacks would probably be best (favor the righties)
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
Our final game on the early slate features our top carnage pitcher, Morton, along with debuting pitcher Anthony Kay. He’ll get a tough matchup with the Rays, a team full of potentially dangerous right-handed batters (the entire projected lineup is right-handed to go against the left-handed Kay…yikes!). Needless to say, the Rays are in play on all fronts in this one.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Biggio, Tellez
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Morton, though this team has been a good contrarian option before. I won’t say don’t go here, just be careful
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, d’Arnaud, Garcia, Adames
GPP note – If Kay is a little rough in his debut, the flood gates could open up quickly. Full-stacks are definitely in play here. I’d say favor the righties, but they might not even have any lefties starting.
Main slate
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick off the main slate with another trip to Camden Yards, where both of these offenses are in play again. I don’t see either starting pitcher or bullpen really doing much to slow down the other team here, so look for some exposure to this one in all formats.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Calhoun, Santana
GPP note – Anything from one-offs to big stacks are in play here
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander, Nunez
GPP note – Same as the Rangers. They’re probably in for another slug-fest, as that happens with bad pitching at Camden Yards
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
We get one of the higher carnage ratings on the day here, as the Pirates face Wainwright and his 7.51 score. Unless they get a huge implied total, they might be a good stack that goes under the radar a bit, as people may not want to stack here otherwise. The Cardinals get a decent matchup as well, with Brault and his 4.95 SIERA. Like the first game, I like both offenses in this one (though I do like Pittsburgh more).
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt (BvP), Fowler, Ozuna
GPP note – The strong righties are in a good spot here, especially Goldy and his decent BvP
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Moran, Reynolds
GPP note – This looks to be a good lower-owned stack with a lot of upside, so consider some stacks here
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers get a rematch with Darvish and his 2.99 carnage rating, but unfortunately for them, I think he still has the upper hand here. He’s back in his groove and doesn’t seem very susceptible to getting rattled, and with how this Brewers offense has been, I don’t see them doing a whole lot here. As for the Cubs, they’ll face a struggling Gonzalez, so they are certainly in play (especially considering they know him well).
Cubs 5 star plays – Bryant (some BvP)
Cubs 4 star plays – Castellanos, Conteras, Zobrist
GPP note – The righties look to be a high-ceiling stack against the struggling Gonzalez
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Grandal
GPP note – The lefties are worth a look, but I think I’d keep to one-offs or mini-stacks here and avoid going with large stacks
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros
Our chalk pitcher is up next, as Verlander will take the mound against the not-so-hot Mariners. I don’t need to tell you how ridiculous he’s been as of late, and this is another matchup for him to keep that going. You can just default here for cash games. The Astros offense will get to face Kikuchi, somebody we enjoy targeting, so look to Houston on all fronts in this one.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – none (Vogelbach/Narvaez?)
GPP note – Verlander has been a living buzzsaw against the offenses he’s faced and I don’t see that changing here. I’d give the Mariners a hard pass here
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Gurriel, Alvarez, Chirinos
GPP note – The righties are in a great spot here and might be a bit popular, so consider the lefties to help get a little different (and the lower part of the order like Chirinos)
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
One of our surprise pitchers of the day, Odorizzi scored a pretty decent 4.27 carnage rating and a 507 KSCORE against the Indians, putting him in play as a potential GPP pivot, as people don’t like to attack Cleveland all that often. Civale has looked decent, but his 4.82 SIERA is a little worrisome. If he’s not on his game, the Twins will quickly turn this one into a home run derby like they like to do.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor (BvP), Santana, Kipnis
GPP note – If you’re going here, favor Lindor for the BvP and some lefties
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Cruz/Sano, Cron
GPP note – The top-of-the-order lefties and the power righties are the targets here
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
We have the worst carnage rating on the day with our next one, as Smyly gets an 8.91 against the Mets. Since he did just have a bit of a breakout performance, people might be a little gunshy to attack him, so you might get the Mets at lower ownership than you would have a week or two ago in this same matchup. Take advantage of situations like that!
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Dickerson (BvP), Hoskins
GPP note – This one doesn’t look like a full-stack candidate, but some lefties might be in play (Dickerson has some good BvP on Stroman)
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Davis, Ramos, McNeil/Conforto
GPP note – Best carnage rating on the day, so I have to say at least consider them for some big stacks (especially the righties like Alonso)
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
Another high-ceiling option, Heaney has a 3.53 carnage rating to go along with a 564 KSCORE, both of which are third-best on the slate today. Unfortunately, he did get a big bump in salary, so I can’t recommend him for cash games (especially on DK..please find the extra $900 for Verlander!). For GPP though, he likely won’t be a popular option for the price, so pivot away.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout (if he plays)
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Calhoun
GPP note – Pretty standard here; look at Trout and the lefties to go against the soft righty that is Dylan Covey
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu (BvP), Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez
GPP note – A bit of a tough matchup against Heaney, but since he won’t be chalk, I can’t really call this a contrarian stack. Still, there could be a few righties to look at here, but I wouldn’t get carried away
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Even though they just faced Strasburg and Corbin, the Braves managed to put up 8 runs over these last two games, so I think this matchup against Voth could be one where they have another big game. Teheran struck out 5 and 6 Nationals in their previous two meetings, so it seems he knows how to attack them, and I think he’ll step up his game for this one. It’s risky though, so keep him in your GPP pool.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Soto
GPP note – Though there is a lot of BvP here, the Nationals haven’t figured out exactly how to get to Teheran yet, so I don’t think a big stack is going to be the winner here
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna/Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Donaldson, McCann
GPP note – Two studs didn’t keep them doing some damage, so I don’t think Voth will have a very good time here. Consider them a high-ceiling stack
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Another carnage leader, Lucchesi and his 4.22 rating (4th best today) will host Hoffman and the Rockies. This one sort of depends on the visiting pitcher and how he does, but it has the potential to be a low-scoring duel for a while, so both pitchers might be worth a look today.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado/Story (some BvP), Blackmon/Desmond
GPP note – Tough matchup against Lucchesi, so a righty (preferably with some BvP) would be the best way to go
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Garcia, Renfroe (BvP)
GPP note – Not a ton to love here, especially of Hoffman has a decent outing, but some exposure here isn’t a terrible idea (Renfroe has 2 homers against him)
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Bassitt draws the lucky matchup against the lowly Tigers, but even with that, his carnage rating is still up there at a 5.67, so this one could be a little more interesting than what meets the eye. Oakland has been doing some damage as of late, and they’re no stranger to Zimmermann, so look for them to keep their momentum going.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Reyes, Stewart
GPP note – It’s hard to ever want to stack the Tigers, but they finally have a carnage rating that isn’t terrible for them, so this could be one of those times to get bold and try your luck. Be careful!
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Chapman/Davis (some BvP), Semien, Olson
GPP note – They’re heating up and draw a good matchup, so look to them for another full-stack option
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, our hammer game features the poor soul Beede, a high-wOBA righty who gets to face this dangerous Dodgers offense. On the other side is Gonsolin and his 4.35 carnage rating, which I do expect to drop some with the final run, so they won’t have an easy time doing a whole lot of damage here. This one looks to be in the favor of the Dodgers, as most games featuring them are.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Yastrzemski, Pillar
GPP note – I don’t think big stacks are the play here, but some lefty one-offs (and perhaps Pillar) could be worth a look if you want some low-owned guys
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Seager, Beaty, Lux
GPP note – Even without Muncy, this team is dangerous against righties and you can stack them with confidence against Beede. I’m calling it now; Lux gets his first major league homer tonight!
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
