Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 10:00 am central time.
A look at pitchers
It’s not as pretty as some other slates, but there are some decent places to go here today. At first glance, Tanaka and Odorizzi look to be good options for cash games, perhaps Yarbrough too with how he’s been. There aren’t many high-KSCORE options outside of those guys and Zimmermann (who is facing the scary Twins), so we’ll have to dig in some more to find our GPP targets. As always, stay tuned to see where we’re leaning with the coach’s notes!
Offenses to target
We have several offenses facing red pitchers today, such as Tampa Bay, both New York teams, Cincinnati, and Toronto. There are also a lot of pitchers with bad SIERA ratings, so there won’t be any shortage of good targets today.
Full Count Breakdown
Main slate
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with Syndergaard and the Mets facing off against Ross and the Nationals, which will be the fifth time this season that the Nationals have faced Syndergaard. He’s been steadily worse against them each time, so I think this could be the time for them to really get to him. Ross isn’t exactly a dominant stud, and both of these offenses have been doing well, so I think we’ll start this slate with some fireworks.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto (BvP), McNeil, Alonso, Frazier (BvP)
GPP note –
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon (BvP), Soto
GPP note – They know Syndergaard very well, making them a great contrarian stack
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
We get two competent pitchers next, with Minor and Tanaka facing off. Tanaka definitely has the advantage here, as the Rangers aren’t really scaring anybody right now, but Minor is certainly in play as a contrarian option as he has been a decent target most of the season. If you’re feeling contrarian today, consider the Rangers.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo/Odor (some BvP)
GPP note – Tough matchup against Tanaka, but there’s some contrarian action in play here with the BvP (you may want to consider one-offs or small stacks instead of full-blown stacks)
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge, Sanchez, Torres/Voit
GPP note – Tough matchup against Minor, so big Yankee stacks aren’t really the flavor of the day today. Trying to find a home run or two could be in play, likely from those listed above
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
I don’t know what got into Yarbrough over the last month and a half, but he’s turned himself into a pretty solid starting pitcher, and he’ll get a decent matchup here against the Orioles. The Rays are always a threat to go off, especially when they get to face a bad pitching staff like what Baltimore has, so definitely consider stacking them today.
Oh, welcome back Mark Trumbo!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini
GPP note – The Rays’ pitchers have been good at limiting offenses, so stack with caution. I’d prefer one-offs or smaller stacks here
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Sogard, d’Arnaud, Meadows
GPP note – This team can be very dangerous and they’ll get a good matchup against Woj and the Baltimore bullpen. Stack away!
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
There was a time when we were a little worried about Odorizzi, but he seems to have come around, and he’ll get a great matchup against the Tigers to really get things rolling. It’s a little early to tell as I type this, but he’ll be a primary cash consideration, so stay tuned. As for the Twins, they’re always worth a look, especially when they visit divisional rivals. There’s a lot of BvP here for them too, so be sure to have some exposure to them.
Twins 5 star plays –
Twins 4 star plays – Rosario/Cron (BvP), Cruz/Sano (BvP), Kepler, Polanco
GPP note – This is a great spot for them to go off as a team, as well as individual performances. They’re great for big stacks in GPP or smaller stacks for cash/GPP alike
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – none
GPP note – There’s nothing to like here unless you’re feeling brave and want to go super-contrarian
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves
After getting destroyed by Verlander yesterday, the Blue Jays head to Atlanta to take on Soroka, which won’t be an easy task either. They’ll be greeted by a hungry Atlanta offense, who shouldn’t have too much problem getting to Waguespack. For cash and GPP purposes alike, I’d look at Atlanta as the better option in this one.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak, Guerrero, Bichette
GPP note – Tough matchup against Soroka, but they’ve got some talent, so it’s not the worst contrarian stack you could go with
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman, Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Albies, Donaldson
GPP note – They’re worth a hard look today, and I expect them to continue to heat up as the playoffs approach
Philadelphia Phillies at Cinncinati Reds
Up next are a couple of rough pitchers facing two very capable offenses, so I’m looking for this one to be a good source of fantasy goodness today. Needless to say, I don’t like either pitcher here, as I’m only interested in these offenses. Anything from one-offs to full game stacks are fair play here.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Realmuto, Dickerson (BvP), Miller
GPP note – The lefties are the better choice here, but Hoskins/Realmuto can hit righties just fine
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Aquino, Senzel, Suarez, Galvis, Votto
GPP note – Righties are the way to go here, and Aquino is borderline 5 star in this matchup
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
San Fransico Giants at St Louis Cardinals
At first glance this game doesn’t look too exciting for us, but statistically these pitchers aren’t doing too much better than Smyly/DeSclafani are, so there could be some low-key decent batters here. I don’t think huge stacks are quite in order, but some one-offs or smaller stacks could certainly be worth having.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays -Belt, Yastrzemski, Pillar
GPP note – The lefties and Pillar look to be the best targets here
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Fowler, Carpenter, Goldschmidt, Ozuna, DeJong
GPP note – They seem to be heating up a bit, and the lefties are in the best spot here to do some damage. Good source of potentially lower-owned bats with high ceilings (the power righties would be even lower owned, so consider them too)
Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs
To wrap up the main slate we have Sheffield and the Mariners visiting Hendricks and the Cubs at good ol’ Wrigley Field. Hendricks gets the better matchup here, as he’s generally pretty solid and faces the weaker of the two teams here. It’s hard to know what to expect from Sheffield since he hasn’t done a ton yet in his 11 innings, but he’ll have a tough task ahead of him today.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Narvaez, Seager
GPP note – Not a very good matchup against Hendricks, who could very well limit this team to minimal scoring. If you go here, I’d grab a lefty or two and move on
Cubs 5 star plays – Bryant, Rizzo
Cubs 4 star plays – Castellanos, Baez, Heyward
GPP note – The righties look to be in a solid spot here, but don’t forget about the lefties that can carry their weight (and will get some decent matchups later in the game)
Late slate(s)
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Cole and his ridiculously low 1.56 carnage rating will meet up with Houser and the Brewers. Even though they have a ton of lefties to throw at him, I think Cole will be able to power through most of them, so don’t be afraid to use him here. Houser hasn’t been bad, but this will be a difficult test for him (especially these dangerous lefties).
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley, Alvarez, Bregman
GPP note – The lefties are the obvious choice here, but don’t neglect the righties! They can hit reverse splits just fine
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Thames
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Cole, and this offense has looked pretty flat. It’s weird to call the Brewers a contrarian stack, but here we are
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Even with as bad as the Padres have been, they get a nice 6.77 carnage rating against Leake here, in what could be the matchup they need to bounce back. Quantrill hasn’t been too bad, and the Diamondbacks have yet to face him, so we could be in for some surprises in this game. The Padres look to be a good place to go contrarian today.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado (some BvP), Hosmer, Naylor, Garcia
GPP note – Machado and some lefties look to be a good place to go for a bounce-back contrarian stack
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Dyson
GPP note – They’ve never faced Quantrill, who has been decent, so they may under-perform here. Smaller stacks or one-offs might be best
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
The second-best carnage rating of the late games belongs to Civale, which is a nice 3.08 against the White Sox. They’ve never faced him either, which only adds to his stock today. Look to him as an option, but I’d probably shy away from Detwiler against the Indians, as he hasn’t looked all that great coming into this one.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Garcia, Abreu
GPP note – A potentially tough matchup against Civale, who they’ve never seen before. One-offs look to be the way to go here, possibly a small mini-stack
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Santana, Mercado, Puig
GPP note – This is a good spot for the Indians to do some damage, as they’re loaded with strong righties to go against this weak lefty. Big stacks are in play here
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels
And finally, our late night game features one of the worst and best pitchers on the entire day; Lambert vs Buehler. Lambert sports a 9.07 carnage, easily the worst on the day, and he’ll have to face this dangerous LAD team who will be quick to try and rattle him up with some big hits. After that, they’ll get a weak bullpen, so this entire lineup is in play here.
The Rockies have a tough matchup against Buehler and his 3.20 carnage rating and a massive 638 KSCORE, which is the highest on the entire day. The only ding against him is that there is some BvP, but some of it was from Coors, so I wouldn’t be too concerned about that. Either way, this one is heavily favored towards the Dodgers.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon (some BvP), Arenado
GPP note – Difficult matchup against the Dodgers, away from Coors, so I wouldn’t go stacking them here. Be careful with the BvP, as it wasn’t all in L.A.
Angels 5 star plays – Bellinger
Angels 4 star plays – Pederson, Turner, Beaty, Seager, Pollock
GPP note – They’ll get 9 innings against bad pitching, so you can take pretty much anybody here and consider them a good play. Favor the lefties up top if you want to be safe, or target the bottom of the order to be different
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
