Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 10:00 am central time.
A look at pitchers
Verlander and Darvish lead the way for the main slate with their super-low carnage ratings today. I’d probably default to Verlander as a cash option in all formats, especially considering he was ejected in his last outing. He’ll be out for blood!
We have a few other high-ceiling options today, such as Corbin and Pineda with their 540+ KSCOREs. We’ll want to wait and see where Vegas is leaning to get some more ideas, but for now, those are some of the best looking options on the main slate.
Offenses to target
We get several teams facing pitchers in the red today, led by Minnesota, Washington, Chicago, and Oakland. Baltimore and Kansas City face bad pitching/bullpens as well, so they’ll be options too. As always, keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where the coaches are looking to attack today!
Full Count Breakdown
Main slate
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
We’ll kick things off today with another Reds/Cardinals game (seriously, four games in 48 hours?), this one being led by Mahle and Mikolas. Neither pitcher really stands out (Mahle hasn’t pitched since July), though I guess it’s worth noting that Mikolas is coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the Brewers. There’s a bit of BvP here though, so I don’t see that happening again.
Speaking of BvP, there is a lot on both sides, with several homers for each team, so definitely give this game a look for offensive purposes (you could maybe even game stack this one).
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Winker (BvP), Suarez (BvP), Aquino/VanMeter (small sample BvP)
GPP note – Several of these guys have homers against Mikolas already, so don’t be shy!
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Ozuna (BvP), Molina (BvP), Fowler, Goldschmidt, Carpenter
GPP note – Plenty of hits and a few homers on this side, too.
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
Hey look, Manaea is back! Even though he looks like a completely different person in every profile picture they use for him, we know him all too well. He’s good for the random big game, which offers a ceiling well above his asking price. It is his first start of the season though, and it’s against the Yankees, so this isn’t a cash safe play by any means. If you’re feeling bold, you can test your luck here!
Aside from that, both offenses look to be in play here, as usual.
Athletics 5 star plays – Semien (BvP and hotter than fire)
Athletics 4 star plays – Profar (BvP), Chapman, Davis, Olson
GPP note – These guys have been cranking it up lately and Happ has the worst carnage rating on the main slate. Joy!
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Sanchez, Judge, Torres
GPP note – There’s no BvP here and this is Manaea’s first start of the season. I think one side of this game will score high (be it Manaea or the Yankees offense), so you may want to hedge some lineups here
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
We head up north for our next game, where we get a chalky cash pitcher with Verlander and a bullpen game from the Blue Jays. This one looks to be very lobsided; roll with the Astros in confidence, or run some Toronto stacks for the contrarian approach.
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Alvarez, Brantley, Gurriel
GPP note – Three Astros (Springer/Altuve/Bregman) have homers against Font, but they’re mostly all in play against the bullpen in Toronto
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak (BvP)
GPP note – Contrarian stacks only
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
We get a divisional matchup next where Pineda and his 540 KSCORE will take on the Tigers and Turnbull, who will likely surrender a home run or two to this Twins offense. I see this one playing out just like the previous game, with the visiting team (Twins) having the upper hand, with the home team (Tigers) being a contrarian move.
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – Any exposure here is good, from one-offs to full stacks. I expect at least one or two homers here, if not more
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Rodriguez (BvP), Cabrera
GPP note – As usual, there’s not much to love here, but I don’t mind a Rodriguez one-off for his BvP (3 for 5 with two homers)
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
The home team looks to be the favorite in this next one, and though Morton is a heavy favorite here, his carnage rating wasn’t all that special, so I’d leave him for a GPP option. Really, this game screams GPP on both sides, and I don’t think we need to touch this one for cash games. Even for that, it doesn’t look too promising…this game smells like a fantasy dud all around.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana
GPP note – Tough matchup against Morton who can severely limit an offense’s ceiling. I’d avoid big stacks
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham/Garcia/Kiermaier/Adames (some BvP)
GPP note – There’s some BvP here but I’d rather go with one-offs or smaller stacks
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
After Strasburg destroyed this team last night, Corbin will get his turn, and his ceiling isn’t too far behind what we saw yesterday. Corbin has been a living floor for a while now, so if you’re looking for another cash option besides Verlander, this is a good option too. Smith has his moments, but carnage doesn’t like his chances at all here, and Washington has been hot. Favor the home team!
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Castro, Cooper
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Corbin who will probably give them the Strasburg treatment. Give them a pass unless you’re going contrarian
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Rendon, Turner, Soto,
GPP note – Smith is capable of a solid game, so I would either stack heavy and hope they go off, or fade them and hope that Smith has one of those good games (consider taking Smith in those lineups, too)
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
In the Battle of the Bad Bullpens (I’m so clever…), my Royals will host the Orioles again, in what will probably be another shootout since neither side knows how to keep the other from getting on base. We do at least have Duffy on the mound, who is capable of very solid outings, but the Orioles will still get 3-5 innings against our bullpen, so they’re in play either way.
Oh, Mondesi might be back! Keep an eye out for that lineup.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander
GPP note – Potentially a tough matchup against Duffy but a good matchup against the bullpen. You can stack here
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Dozier, Gordon, Soler
GPP note – Cheap stack against a bad bullpen, so don’t be shy!
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
To cap off the main slate we have Gio and the Brewers taking on the Cubs and Yuuuuuuu at Wrigley. Darvish is looking like his old self and carries the second-best carnage rating on the day, and he’ll get to face a Brewers team that has been struggling quite a bit. I don’t think we need him for cash, but definitely get some Darvish exposure in GPP today. Carnage says so! As for the Cubs’ offense well, Gio has been struggling too, so you can load up on them as well.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich (BvP), Grandal
GPP note – Tough matchup, but Yelich does have some BvP against Darvish, so you could take him as a one-off. Stacks seem to be off-limits here
Cubs 5 star plays – Bryant (BvP)
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Castellanos, Baez, Lucroy (BvP)
GPP note – Gio is having some issues and comes in with the second-worst carnage rating on the day. Load ’em up!
Late slate(s)
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
We’ll kick off the late afternoon games with one of the most volatile matchups in all of baseball; Kikuchi and his extremely wild floor/ceiling and the Rangers who either strike out all game or post up 15+ runs. Needless to say, both sides of this matchup are squarely in play in GPP, as there’s likely going to be some fantasy goodness in here somewhere.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Smith, Nola
GPP note – Not much to love here, unfortunately. I’d probably look elsewhere for production
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Santana, Andrus, Choo
GPP note – I would full-stack these guys and hedge with some Kikuchi lineups, as one side of this one is bound to go bonkers
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Ahh, Coors! It’s not on the main slate this time, but we can still play it here, and we’re greeted with a 14 implied total opening. I don’t think much else needs to be said here, as we know the deal by now (beware of the pitching, embrace the chalky bats…or go in reverse and hope being contrarian wins the day).
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds, Moran, Newman
GPP note – There’s not much BvP to go off of here yet, but there will be after today. Load up with confidence
Rockies 5 star plays – Arenado, Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Desmond
GPP note – Same as above. The righties are in the better spot, so you can target some lefties to be different
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
I think that both pitchers are a tad underpriced in this next one, as Lauer and Samardzija will face off with two of the better carnage ratings on this afternoon slate (3.56 for Shark, 4.31 for Lauer). I think the move here is to target the pitching for low-dollar, medium/high-ceiling options, and keep the offenses limited to one-offs or smaller stacks.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer, Naylor
GPP note – They’re looked flat out terrible lately, especially against righties, and Shark will make quick work of them if they don’t step up at all. You can consider just fading them here
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Posey (some BvP), Pillar, Solano, Longoria
GPP note – I don’t love big stacks here either, but a few small pieces couldn’t hurt (Posey has some BvP and is the best option next to Pillar)
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Another returning pitcher, Price makes his first start back from early August, and he’ll be greeted by Heaney and his surprisingly low 3.56 carnage rating (and a 549 KSCORE?!). Nobody will want to play him against the Red Sox though, so if you’re looking for your bold pitcher of the day, you’ve found him.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Betts, Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – Heaney has looked pretty good and profiles well against the Red Sox, so temper expectations today
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Pujols (BvP), Fletcher, Upton
GPP note – Price hasn’t pitched in a month so we don’t know where he is now. Consider going heavy on stacks or heavy on the fade and hope for one extreme or the other (if you fade them, you should use Price in some of those lineups)
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Another returning pitcher, Stripling hasn’t pitched since late July, but he’s certainly underpriced here for the ceiling he’s capable of. It’s certainly not the easiest matchup on the board, but if you’re looking for a GPP punt, he’s a viable option. Young has a couple of decent outings under his belt lately, but he’s facing the Dodgers today, so he’ll have his work cut out for him.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner, Pollock, Smith, Taylor, Hernandez
GPP note – The righties are the way to go here…plus Bellinger. Young has shown some weakness, so if he’s off at all here, the Dodgers will pounce on him. Be sure you have some stacks here
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Dyson, Ahmed (BvP)
GPP note – A bit of a contrarian move, they have a tougher matchup than usual, but they will be quick to jump on Stripling if he’s not all the way there yet. Ahmed is 6 for 12 with 2 homers against him!
Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves
We get a higher implied total here than I was expecting, as we have two capable pitchers facing off here. I think both are squarely in play for GPP purposes, so I’d recommend having some exposure to them here, as both offenses can strike out with the best of them when they have an off game.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada
GPP note – Potentially tough matchup against Teheran here, so I don’t think I like full stacks
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Freeman, Acuna, Albies
GPP note – Tough matchup against Giolito, but if you want a high-ceiling stack with low ownership, this is the way to go
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Game two of our doubleheader will feature two capable pitchers, with Castillo and Ponce de Leon facing off with a slightly lower implied total than what we had in game one. Interestingly, though, the Cardinals have quite a bit of experience against Castillo, which is something that heavily favors this team (they stinks against pitchers they’ve never seen but seem to excel more and more against ones they’re used to). This makes Cardinals stacks very interesting against this “big name” pitcher.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Red s4 star plays – VanMeter, Votto, Aquino
GPP note – They might be a little quiet here if they erupt in game one, so keep an eye on that one and be prepared to switch sides to the Cardinals for this game
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter/DeJong, Wong/Ozuna/Goldschmidt/Fowler (BvP for all with 1-2 homers each against Castillo)
GPP note – This is easily the most BvP on the entire day, so don’t be afraid to stack against quality pitching here
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Aaaand finally, our hammer/showdown game features Stroman and the Mets visiting Eflin and the Phillies in another “screw it, we don’t know, flip a coin!” game by Vegas. We’ll have to dig into this one more as the day goes on, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes pages for the showdown notes for this one!
A word of warning on that initial carnage for Eflin – I don’t believe it will remain that low after the final run is completed, so don’t go locking him into a ton of lineups just yet!
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Conforto/Frazier (BvP), McNeil, Alonso
GPP note – The Mets are familiar with Eflin, so unleash those lefties here
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Dickerson (BvP), Hoskins, Realmuto
GPP note – Dickerson has some BvP (10 for 27 with 2 homers), so whatever you do, be sure to include him in your plans
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
