Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Wade Miley – Miley has been an interesting pitcher this season, he’s seen his price go all the way up near $12k and is now below $10k against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are not an offense that scares me and have only a 3.6 implied run total here. The Mariners strikeout at a 23.6% rate against left-handed pitching on the season to go along with Miley’s strikeout rate of 20.6%. The one thing I don’t love about this matchup is his performance against Seattle this season, in four starts he is averaging just 12.4 Draftkings points per game. I’m not going to put too much into that, I like Miley as a nice pitching option here.
- Kolby Allard – Allard hasn’t been in the majors long but has looked good in his short stint. In his first five games, he is averaging 15.7 Draftkings points per game and draws a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have a strikeout rate of just 19.1% against lefties this season which is lower than I would have expected. That said, Allard has a k rate of 22.7% on the season. Allard has at least 16 Draftkings points in all his starts this season except one, I like him as a mid-range SP2 option.
- John Means – I always like to provide a value option and today that man is John Means who gets a matchup with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have a pretty high strikeout rate of 26.3% against left-handed pitchers on the season which gives him a nice floor on this slate. Means is also in good recent form, scoring at least 20 Draftkings points in each of his last two games. In one start against the Rangers, this season Means scored 17.9 Draftkings points. He’s fairly cheap and lets us get to a good offense along with a nice SP1, he makes a lot of sense as a punt SP2 on Draftkings or a “YOLO” play on FanDuel.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Philadelphia Phillies (+147) @ Cincinnati Reds (-160)
Sonny Gray will draw the start against Jason Vargas here, and I like one of these pitchers quite a bit more than the other. That pitcher would be Sonny Gray, who I have been high on all season long. He is averaging 18.7 Draftkings points per game over his last 10 games but scored just 8.7 Draftkings points against the Phillies earlier this season. I’m willing to go right back to the well here, the Phillies have an implied run total of just 4 runs here, sign me up. Jason Vargas is not a guy that I’ll want to get to and I’ll get some Reds stacks in my early slate lineups.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: I will likely get a lot of Sonny Gray, that said, this is a small ballpark so I don’t hate getting to the power one-offs.
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Small ballpark against Jason Vargas, sign me up. The Reds have an implied run total of 5.7 runs and are fairly cheap outside of Aquino and Suarez.
Chicago White Sox (+182) @ Cleveland Indians (-198)
I was all over Shane Bieber last night, as were most people. Tonight the Indians send Zach Plesac to the mound who is coming off of a rough start with the Rays. He’s priced in that mid-range with Logan Webb and Dakota Hudson, so I don’t mind getting to him as an SP2 if you can afford him. The White Sox will start Reynaldo Lopez who I usually like getting GPP exposure to due to his upside, but I won’t do it against the Indians who make sense as a stacking option.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t love Plesac by any means but he makes a lot of sense and the Sox don’t have any guys that jump off the page to me.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Franmil Reyes, Jason Kipnis
GPP Note: Implied run total of 5.7 runs, this is a nice spot for this whole Indians team and are one of my favorite early slate stacks.
San Francisco Giants (+159) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-173)
This game will feature a matchup between two young, talented pitchers in Logan Webb and Dakota Hudson. Hudson will likely draw a good amount of SP2 ownership here at $8.9k with the Giants having an implied run total of 3.7 here. I don’t love him, but I can see the case for getting there. I personally think I would rather go even cheaper with Logan Webb who is coming off a very nice 20 Draftking point game against the Padres and is $1.6k cheaper than Hudson.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: My SP2 will likely come from this game, so I’m not going crazy on either side with bats.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: As mentioned, I like Webb a good deal here, just power one-offs for me.
Detroit Tigers (-115) @ Kansas City Royals (+106)
I was all over the Royals last night and they came through in a way, scoring 5 runs, but it looked like I wasn’t the only one all over them as they did come with a decent amount of ownership. I’ll have much less interest here with Matt Boyd on the mound for the Tigers who is a guy that I don’t stack against and will actually have some SP1 interest in him due to his massive 31.6% strikeout rate on the season. The Royals will send Glenn Sparkman to the mound and although Sparkman is not good, I’m still not getting to these Tigers bats.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: As usual, no Tigers for me
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Boyd is a very good pitcher and is in play as an SP1 for me, don’t go too crazy with Royals bats.
Los Angeles Angels (+171) @ Oakland Athletics (-186)
This is the one game that falls on a slate of its own and will bring Jose Suarez and Brett Anderson to the mound. Neither of these pitchers has been great, but Suarez has been especially bad. He’s given up a hard contact percentage of 46.5% rate on the season making the Athletics a very nice stack for me on this slate. I don’t hate the big bats on the Angels, but I like the A’s as a full lineup more. Due to the pricing being much different than the main slate I’ll let the coaches break this one down for you in slack. Also, be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Miami Marlins (+129) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-140)
This game doesn’t feature two of the greatest pitching matchup, but they do get a nice ballpark here. Elieser Hernandez is a guy that I like getting to as a cheap SP2 option due to his high strikeout upside. However, the Pirates really don’t strike out that much, so maybe we go elsewhere on this slate. The Pirates will start Agrazal who is really not great, but hey the Marlins aren’t either. If you really want to stack your bats you can punt with him, but I won’t be doing it.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Garrett Cooper, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: I don’t think this offense is talented at all, but you can get to some one-offs here.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Similar to last night, I don’t love the Pirates and think Hernandez has some upside here, just one-offs for me.
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Toronto Blue Jays (+182) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-198)
The Rays are pretty heavy favorites here and have a big implied run total at 5.4 runs against Trent Thornton. Thornton has given up three runs in each of his last three games so I don’t mind the Rays here, they are a tier-two stack for me. Pruitt will draw the start for the Rays against a young Jays team. I won’t be getting to any Pruitt, but I don’t think I’ll be going crazy with the Jays bats outside of a few guys.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: I like some one-off options enough to have interest in a mini-stack here.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: The Rays are a tier-two stack for me on this slate, I just don’t love some of the guys on this team, but have some upside here.
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles
I wrote-up both pitchers in this game in my pitcher’s section. Means has been very solid this season even though people love stacking against anyone the Orioles throw out there, I like Means a good deal here as a cheap SP2 option. Kolby Allard makes a lot of sense in the mid-range in a plus matchup against a weak Orioles team. Getting to these guys makes a lot of sense on this slate so I won’t get to these offenses all that much.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Similar to the Giants and Cards game, I like the pitchers in this one. I’ll have more interest in Means than this Rangers offense.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: I like Kolby Allard a good deal here, so just power one-offs for the O’s for me.
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Chicago Cubs (-120) @ Milwaukee Brewers (+111)
This is a massive series when it comes to the NL wild card and the Brewers need to do some winning here to keep their playoff hopes alive. They will send Chase Anderson to the mound who has been all over the place lately. I won’t have any interest in him here as I wait for him to find some consistency. The Cubs will send Jose Quintana to the mound who the Brewers have had success against this season. In five starts against the Brewers, this season Quintana is averaging just 10 Draftkings points per game, the Brewers actually make my list of secondary stacks while the Cubs are close to a tier-one stack.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Chase Anderson has not been great lately, but has been much better at home. That said, the Cubs have some upside here, they are close to a tier-one stack for me.
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Manny Pina, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: I like the Brewers as an elite GPP stack and a tier-two cash stack. Ryan Braun has some nice BvP against Quintana, while Yelich is one of the best hitters in the league and Grandal and Pina hit lefties well. I like them at home here.
Minnesota Twins (+130) @ Boston Red Sox (-141)
I liked this game to score a lot of runs last night, and it really didn’t. Tonight will be a matchup of Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez which has runs written all over it in Fenway. The Red Sox have an implied run total of 6.3 runs and the Twins are at 5.3 runs. I like both sides of this game and will get to both sides. Neither pitcher is really interesting to me, both of these offenses are elite, no need to go here.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
GPP Note: Eovaldi has not been good this season and this Twins team hits home runs like they’re going out of style, get to them if you can.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Christian Vazquez, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Perez has not been great this season either but has a pretty expensive price tag, get to the Red Sox if you can afford them.
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Washington Nationals (-118) @ Atlanta Braves (+109)
This game should be a fun one to watch as Stephen Strasburg and Max Fried will take the mound against these elite offenses. Max Fried is one of my favorite young pitchers in the league and really does not give up many home runs at all so we’ll see how he fairs against this big boppin’ Nats offense. Strasburg shouldn’t require a lot of breakdown, he’s an elite pitcher but in a tough spot against this Braves offense. If you want to get to either of these pitchers I won’t talk you off of them, but I’m viewing this game as a stay away, both offenses are elite and both pitchers are great, one side will have to win this one.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Just power one-offs here, I like the pitchers in this game
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Same story here just one-offs
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Seattle Mariners (+242) @ Houston Astros (-266)
I wrote-up Wade Miley in my pitcher’s section and draws one of the better matchups in the AL with the Mariners. He makes a lot of sense as your cash game SP1 if paying down. The Mariners simply are not good. Speaking of the Mariners, they will send Marco Gonzales to the mound who is averaging just 7 Draftkings points per game in three starts against the Astros this season. They have an implied run total of 6 runs here and are the top stack on this slate.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Wade Miley is a great pitching option here, no Mariners for me.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, George Springer (if active)
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks the lineup will get interest from me, the Astros are the top stack on the slate, get to them if you can.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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