Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Jack Flaherty – As much as it pains me to write up Jack Flaherty being a Brewers fan, but he’s been light’s out lately. He has gone for at least 36.8 Draftkings points in two straight games and continues his second-half tear. The Brewers are a tough offense even without Christian Yelich but they have just a 3.2 implied run total here in St. Louis. They can also strikeout with the best of ’em at a 26.8% rate on the season against right-handed pitching, Flaherty matches this with an above-average 29.1% k rate. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 27.1 Draftkings points per game, he is simply pitching like one of the best pitchers in the league making for a nice SP1 option on this slate.
- Madison Bumgarner – As we have done all season, streaming a pitcher against the Marlins is a viable option here. The Marlins have an implied run total of 3.3 runs here in one of the best pitchers parks in the league in San Francisco. The Marlins are striking out at a 25.7% rate against left-handed pitching this season while Bumgarner has a 24.1% k rate. Bumgarner has been a bit up-and-down as of late, but I’m willing to go with him as an expensive SP2 or a cheap SP1 at under $9k on Draftkings.
- Robert Dugger – Dugger is one of my favorite cheap options on the main slate in his matchup with the Giants. I don’t hate just going with both pitchers in this game as the Giants have an implied run total of 4.8 which is a bit higher than I would like it to be, but I’m willing to look past it given the ballpark. San Franciso is striking out at a 24.8% rate against righties on the season. Dugger’s strikeout rate has been pretty low since joining the big league team, but at $7k in this ballpark, he doesn’t need a whole lot to hit value. As expected he has some home/road splits in favor of being in Miami, but this ballpark is similar when it comes to run prevention, I like Dugger here.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
The day kicks off with a matchup between two high powered offenses and a pitching matchup of Hunter Wood and Drew Smeltzer, I’m expecting there to be some runs scored here. We don’t have any run totals on this game yet, but these pitchers are sub-par and these offenses are the opposite. If you’re playing a showdown slate or one of the early slates I would fade the pitching and stack up these offenses.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: I’m expecting a lot of scoring in this game, anyone who cracks the lineup is in play for me.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: Smeltzer is not a guy that I find to be all that great, in two matchups against the Indians this season he has given up a total of 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings. Stack up the Indians.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+198) @ Chicago Cubs (-216)
Kyle Hendricks and James Marvel will draw the starts for these two teams after putting up football like numbers in yesterday’s game. Fun fact, both the Cubs and Pirates scored more “points” than their football counterparts in the Steelers and the Bears and yes I just wanted to throw a little shade on the Bears, sue me! Anyway, I’m expecting there to be a good number of runs here again today, it looks like the wind will be blowing out again near 10 mph. This will turn routine fly-balls into home runs causing this game to shootout. Fade the pitchers here and run with the bats again.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Kevin Newmann
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Hendricks can be tough and has just a 34.1% hard contact rate on the season, but with the wind blowing out, hard contact isn’t really a necessity. I like the Pirates here.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Wilson Contreras, Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: They put up 17 runs yesterday and are rewarded with a matchup with James Marvel. With an implied run total of 6.1 runs, anyone who cracks the lineup will be in play for me.
New York Yankees (-281) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+255)
James Paxton will draw the start for the Yankees here in a game where he and the Yankees are massive favorites on the road. Paxton has pitched very well lately and the Jays have an implied run total of just 3.5 runs here, Paxton is an elite pitching play on an early slate of games. The Yankees will see Jake Waguespack here and have an implied run total of over 6 yet again. This ballpark has statistically been one of the better parks for home runs this season which feels a bit odd, but roll with what the numbers tell you, the Yankees are an elite stack on an early slate.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup will be in play for me, they are a top stack on this early slate.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Justin Smoak, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: I’ll be having a lot of Paxton on this slate, so I’m not going out of my way for any of these guys, but there are some nice one-off upside plays in some of these young kids.
Atlanta Braves (+100) @ Washington Nationals (-109)
After a game of Max Scherzer and Mike Soroka, we get a matchup of Austin Voth and Mike Foltynewicz. This clearly isn’t the pitching we had yesterday, so I think we can look toward these offenses that I view as two of the best in the league. Both teams have an implied run total of over 5 runs here and I think I’ll lean with the Nationals as Folty has allowed a 42.2% hard contact rate on the season. Again I like both of these teams, but if selecting one side of them, I’m going with the Nats.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: The Braves are an elite offense but pitching normally wins out for me and Scherzer is that good.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Victor Robles
GPP Note: This is my preferred side of this game and I really like saving some money and getting different with this stack for GPPs by wrapping it around with Robles and Zimmerman if you can make it work.
Baltimore Orioles (+105) @ Detroit Tigers (-113)
The MLB should be thanking the DFS gods tonight, nobody, and I mean nobody would be watching this game if it weren’t for gambling/DFS, but here we are. Not only are these two bad teams, but Gabriel Ynoa and Daniel Norris are two bad pitchers. I sneakily liked both of these teams (the Orioles a little more) yesterday because of the pitching matchups and I’ll do the same today. I want to like the Tigers a little more than I do, but there is just zero talent on this team with Castellanos now gone.
BAL 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Daniel Norris is not a good pitcher and the bullpen following him isn’t much better, the Orioles make for a nice GPP stack.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Harold Castro
GPP Note: As much as I want to stack this spot, there just isn’t any talent in this Tigers lineup, I would advise going elsewhere.
Boston Red Sox (+108) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-117)
In what should be a very fun series, it opens up with Eduardo Rodriguez and Aaron Nola. Both of these guys are pitchers that I have a lot of respect for and make it tough for us to get to these offenses. Both offenses are very good and have elite upside, but given the pitching, this feels like a game that I will stay away from and sit back and enjoy the talent that is matching up. Nola has a 26.8 Draftkings point game against the Red Sox already this season, while E-Rod has out up at least 25 Draftkings points in three of his last four games.
BOS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: As good as Aaron Nola is, this offense has some elite one-off options, don’t be afraid to get there if you fall on one or two of them.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, Scott Kingery, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Similar to the Red Sox there are some nice one-off options here, but I’m not full stacking by any means.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+127) @ New York Mets (-138)
We get yet another great pitching matchup in Jacob deGrom and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu has pitched great against the Mets this season in his one start in which he put up 32.3 Draftkings points in 7.2 innings. He’s cooled off a bit and is averaging just 14.8 Draftkings points per game over his last ten games, but the talent is still there to the point where I won’t be stacking against him. deGrom is one of the best pitchers in the league and the Mets are going to let him control this game and pitch as deep as possible as they try to make a wild-card run in the National League.
LAD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
GPP Note: As good as this Dodgers offense is, deGrom may be better. I’m not going too wild here.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: I have a lot of respect for the way Ryu pitches, I’m not going with many bats in this game outside of one-off options.
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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
This is the second game of the double-header between these two teams, whenever teams play a double-header you need to be sure to watch the lineups for the second game, it likely won’t be what you are expecting. Mike Clevinger is likely to pitch this game for the Indians and has a massive 35.6% strikeout rate on the season. If you really want to go with him I won’t talk you down, but the Twins have a great offense. The Twins haven’t named a starter for this game yet so keep an eye on that, but I would expect the Indians to be a nice stacking option here.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Clevinger is one of my favorite pitchers in the league and has elite stuff, just power one-off options here for me from the Twins.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: It really doesn’t matter who is starting for the Twins outside of Kyle Gibson, I will have interest in this Indians offense on the main slate, but keep an eye on the lineup!
Houston Astros (-306) @ Kansas City Royals (+276)
After Gerrit Cole shut down the Royals last night they will send out Zack Greinke here tonight. This pitching staff for the Astros just keeps punching teams in the face as the steamroll through the AL. Greinke is a great option on this slate coming off of a great start against the Athletics. The Royals will send Mike Montgomery to the mound in a difficult matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Astros have an implied run total of 6.2 runs here and are one of the best stacks on the slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer
4-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks the lineup is in play here, they are a tier-one stack on this slate. They’re expensive, but if you can make it work, go for it.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Adalberto Mondesi
GPP Note: Don’t stack against Zack Greinke
Milwaukee Brewers (+181) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-197)
I wrote-up Jack Flaherty as one of the better pitching options on the slate against a Brewers team that is missing their star piece. It’s not a spot where I would go all-in with Flaherty because this offense can still put up runs and there are some nice pitching options on this slate, but he has been in incredible form. Speaking of incredible form, Jordan Lyles continues a torrid run with his time with the Brewers. He came back down to earth in his last start in Miami but is still averaging 15.3 Draftkins points per game over his last ten games. I don’t really want to stack up either of these offenses in anything other than a GPP.
MIL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura (if starting), Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Flaherty is an elite pitcher, don’t go too nuts here.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: Jordan Lyles has pitched great and people may just stack against him without doing more research, I recommend going elsewhere.
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Oakland Athletics (-123) @ Texas Rangers (+114)
I was very close to writing up Mike Fiers as a punt pitching option and really don’t mind him if you truly need to save a ton of money. He’s coming off of a terrible start against the Astros in which he scored -19 Draftkings points, but I’ll chalk that up to that offense. Don’t goo too crazy here, but I think Fiers can hit value as the Rangers strikeout with the best of ’em. The Rangers will send Mike Minor to the mound which will be enough to keep me off of this Athletics offense, but I won’t be getting to Minor as a pitching option with the temperature in the 90’s and a good A’s lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Mike Minor has the ability to shut down any offense, there are better spots on this slate.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Danny Santana
GPP Note: I’ll actually get some Mike Fiers exposure here, so I won’t go crazy with the Rangers which is a lineup that I simply don’t like and think it’s way overpriced.
San Diego Padres (-103) @ Colorado Rockies (-105)
Coors field did what Coors field does last night with a total of 18 runs scored. I expect there to be a ton of runs again tonight with Eric Lauer and Peter Lambert on the mound for these teams. Lambert has a 6.86 era on the season while Lauer has given up hard contact at a 41.8% rate on the season. Both teams have implied run totals of 6.6 here, both of these teams are elite stacks on this slate.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: As always, the Rockies are a great stack at home with an implied run total of 6.6 runs if you can afford them.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Nick Martini
GPP Note: The Padres are a great stack again tonight and are the cheaper of the two teams, both teams are tier-one stacks tonight.
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Cincinnati Reds (+121) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-131)
Anthony DeSclafani draws the start for the Reds and is someone I want to get exposure to, but I just think this Dbacks lineup doesn’t get enough credit. DeSclafani struggles with lefties and this Dbacks team can throw some tough ones at him, target them on the Dbacks side. Arizona will start Merril Kelly who I think is right up there with Jon Lester as one of the bigger frauds in the league. He’s given up a hard contact rate of 42.1% on the season and the Reds are a team I’ll be getting to in GPPs to take advantage of this.
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez, Josh VanMeter
4-star plays: Freddy Galvis, Phillip Ervin
GPP Note: I love the Reds for GPPs, but won’t be going with them in cash as they see a healthy stadium downgrade.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Jarrod Dyson
GPP Note: Target the lefties against DeSclafani
Miami Marlins (+195) @ San Franciso Giants (-214)
Madison Bumgarner is one of my favorite pitching options on the slate and is someone that I wrote-up in the pitching section. I actually don’t even mind going with both pitchers in this game with Robert Dugger. However, the more I dig into this slate the more I think I will just find the money for someone a little higher or go way down to someone like Mike Fiers. Either way, I don’t think I’ll go with either offense in this game, but that Giants run total is a little eerie.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll just be using the pitchers, as usual for a Giants home game. I love Madison Bumgarner here.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: The Giants may draw some attention on this slate, but I’ll let other people play them.
Tampa Bay Rays (-141) @ Los Angeles Angels (+130)
It looks like Tyler Glasnow is working his way back from injury but will just be an opener here so don’t fall for the price tag. Jaime Barria has an era over six on the season and makes me like the Rays a bit here. The Rays offense is one of the more underrated offenses to the general public, but us DFS players no the upside they have. I’m curious to see how Glasnow does here, I’ll take it as a wait and see game and just stick to the usuals from the Angels.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Glasnow will open this game up, but there are better stacks on this slate.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Jaime Barria is not a good pitcher, stack up the Rays with confidence. They are a tier-two stack for me.
Chicago White Sox (+101) @ Seattle Mariners (-109)
Yet another west coast game that should be able to put up some runs as Dylan Cease and the corpse of Felix Hernandez takes the mound. Cease is one of the White Sox top pitching prospects but just doesn’t have enough experience yet to make him worthy of a play. Felix Hernandez is coming off a terrible start against the Astros (feels like we heard that multiple times today) and is someone that I just won’t get to here. Both of these offenses have some likability if you want to go cheaper with your stack.
CHW 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: I like the White Sox a good deal here and they are relatively cheap if you can’t get up to Coors or the Yankees, King Felix is someone I want to target.
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager, Mallex Smith, Austin Nola
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: The Mariners are really only a team I get to when they get a real gas can on the mound and that is the case tonight against Cease. They have a decent amount of upside here and are pretty cheap.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have the experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return, and you have a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
