Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – Absolute smash, lock spot for cash purposes. The Giants are struggling overall and Kershaw has absolutely dominated throughout his career. DO NOT OVERTHINK THIS CASH PLAY!!
- Dinelson Lamet – I absolutely love Lamet as his K upside is through the roof. He can have issues with LHBs but gets to face COL at home, a team that really struggles on the road. Going to end up a 4-star GPP play on my sheet for FD.
- Framber Valdez – Another strong GPP play for me after watching Miley get spanked by a very weak SEA lineup last night. Valdez was strong earlier this season against SEA and I think people jump off of the LHP against SEA train tonight. More of an FD play I think because of Valdez’s walk issues lately.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Clay Buchholz vs Brendan McKay
Big fan of McKay as a ballplayer and think he has some upside here but he did give up 2 HRs in 5 innings against TOR earlier this season. He managed to pick up 8 Ks in that game so he is definitely going to be in play for me here. Buchholz has been solid but unspectacular in his return from the IL. He has been more of reverse splits guy in his professional career (but more traditional this season). I will be on the TB side but not as much as the general field will be, or at least not as much as I think the field will be on them.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: Hitting just .197 with 19 runs over their last 6 games
TB 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Over the last 7 games, Pham and Meadows have combined for 22 hits (11 extra bases) and 5 stolen bases
Chicago Cubs (-120) vs Milwaukee Brewers
Cole Hamels vs Zach Davies
Both teams have TONS of BvP history on their sides in this match-up. The game opened with a total sitting at 9.5 runs, which seems to be the standard total around baseball these days (the HR era). The Cubs offense really busted out last night against the Brewers, especially against the bullpen and a game like that might just be what they needed to propel them down the stretch. Milwaukee seems to just toil around mediocrity at this point and I am not sure they can get themselves back in the postseason race.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: 30 extra-base hits over their last 7 games (7 came in last night’s game)
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Hernan Perez
GPP Note: OPS of just .652 and 10 HRs over their last 7 games
Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles (-120)
Brock Burke vs Dylan Bundy
In terms of power allowed, Bundy has been reverse splits for much of his career and that eliminates a chunk of TEX’s most dangerous bats. I think this is a sneaky spot for Bundy to put up an impressive performance. Burke has been solid in his 3 starts this season but it is being reported that his pitch count may be limited in this start. He has given up just 3 runs on 13 hits across 18 innings while striking out 11. I like a few of the Orioles bats against LHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Just 27 runs scored over their last 8 games
BAL 5-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Have 96 HRs in 69 Home games so far this season
Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) vs Cincinnati Reds
Robbie Ray vs Tyler Mahle
I am a bit shocked that this total is sitting at 9 runs, in a hitter’s park. I know that Ray is a pretty damn good pitcher but he and the Diamondbacks are a very small favorite here. Seeing the line sit the way it is, I have to have some GPP interest in Mahle here against a pretty hot ARI lineup. If we find out that Ray is going to carry a lot of ownership, I will be adding more Reds stacks to my builds for contrarian spots but as of right now, I just want to stack the D’Backs.
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: 10 HRs and 34 runs over their last 6 games
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Aristides Aquino
GPP Note: 16 HRs over their last 9 games
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (-150)
Zach Eflin vs Steven Matz
Eflin has given up 5 HRs in 16 innings against the Mets this season while Matz has given up a ridiculous 7 HRs to PHI in the same amount of innings. This game could be explosive and the scoreboard could get a workout. Matz has been FAR better when pitching at home this season so that might be the reason this game sits with a total of just 8.5 runs (I say just based solely on the number of HRs each has allowed to the opponent this season).
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Jean Segura
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery
GPP Note: Team has an OPS of .931 in 169 ABs with 10 HRs vs Matz
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 with 13 HRs over their last 7 games
Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics (-230)
Spencer Turnbull vs Homer Bailey
Bailey is in an excellent spot, even though the Tigers have been a pesky team lately. Bailey should be on your shortlist for cash purposes due to how big of a favorite he and the A’s are but I will have a couple of DET stacks as the young kids are playing some solid baseball right now. Oakland bats are swinging the power stick as they have a team ISO of .240 over the last week, led by Olson, Brown, and Profar.
DET 5-star plays: Victor Reyes
4-star plays: Dawel Lugo, Ronny Rodriguez
GPP Note: Have 28 extra-base hits and an average of .309 over their last 7 games as a team
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Seth Brown
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: 36 Runs scored and a team ISO of .240 over their last 6 games
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St Louis Cardinals (-120) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Miles Mikolas vs Joe Musgrove
There are some very strong BvP numbers in this game and I think this one could be a sneaky game stack spot for our GPP builds. The game sits with just an 8.5 total and people tend to avoid Mikolas for some reason (he struggles on the road and against LHBs). As I dig deeper into the slate, I could see myself placing both of these teams near the top of my stack list for my FD Coaches Notes.
STL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: 42 runs and 26 extra-base hits over their last 8 games
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are 25 for 68 with 8 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 HRs vs Mikolas
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros (-230)
Tommy Milone vs Framber Valdez
I absolutely LOVE this spot for Valdez. Now before you go shaking your head and telling me that I need to be entered into psychiatric treatment, realize that SEA has struggled ridiculously as a team vs LHPs this season. Do NOT let last night’s Miley implosion skew your thinking. The masses are going to look elsewhere after Miley was spanked around as a cash option last night. Valdez has upside in his arm and comes at a cheaper price than Miley was. Valdez threw 4 innings against SEA earlier and allowed just 2 hits and struck out 3.
SEA 5-star plays: Austin Nola
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .139 over the last 6 games
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: 26 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-250)
Jeff Samardzija vs Clayton Kershaw
Normally I would say this game is all about the Dodgers when they face an RHP but that’s not necessarily the case here. Samardzija has pitched extremely well against this Dodgers team as they are hitting .233 collectively against him in their careers. He has given up just 3 runs in 10.1 innings against them this season. Kershaw is in an absolute smash spot and has held the Giants roster to a career OPS of .478. He has given up just 2 runs in 14 innings against SF this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 and just 17 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: 18 HRs and an ISO of .329 over their last 6 games
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox (-108)
Domingo German vs Jhoulys Chacin/Andrew Cashner
This game is going to be interesting for bat purposes as the total sits at 10.5 as of this morning. German has had an impressive season but has really struggled away from home while Chacin and Cashner have really disappointed. Chacin hasn’t started at the MLB level in a few months so he most likely will only throw a couple of innings with Cashner following. The Yankees have hit Cashner REALLY well in their careers so to see BOS as a favorite here has me a bit shocked.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Yankees are hitting just .213 over their last 6 games but have 13 HRs in those games
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Hitting just .210 with an OPS of .696 over their last 6 games
Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins (-165)
Adam Plutko vs Michael Pineda
Pineda has dominated the roster of the Indians as they are hitting a combined 7 for 47 against him with 18 strikeouts. The Twins bats are staying strong at the plate as most of the projected lineup has hit over .300 across the last week. Pineda threw 4 innings of the 1-hit ball against CLE earlier this season and he struck out 5 in that game. Plutko gave up 4 runs across 6 innings while allowing 10 baserunners and 2 HRs against MIN earlier this season. The game does have a pretty high total sitting at 10.5 runs as of this morning.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Slugging just .391 as a team over their last 7 games
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 in 13 games against CLE this season
Washington Nationals (-110) vs Atlanta Braves
Patrick Corbin vs Dallas Keuchel
I love this SP match-up from a baseball fan perspective. The Nationals just struggled against an LHP of the Braves last night, even though they had been solid vs them recently. Keuchel has really struggled against this Braves team roster in his career so that gives me some cause for concern here but I expect this game to have a postseason feel to it. Corbin has 13 Ks in 11 innings against ATL this season and he allowed just 4 runs in those 11 innings.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Ryan Zimmerman, Brian Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 over their last 6 games
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Just 19 extra-base hits over their last 6 games but 43 runs scored
Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins (-125)
Jorge Lopez vs Pablo Lopez
The Lopez vs Lopez match-up is about to happen! I say that with a laugh as neither SP should be one we are targeting. This game is pretty boring overall but KC has some bats that are hot over the last week. It is just tough to target them as this game has a total sitting at 8.5 and the ballpark is definitely all about pitching. Pablo Lopez has been really strong when pitching at home this season so we could look his way in our GPP builds.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Hitting .290 with an OPS of .808 over their last 6 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Neil Walker
GPP Note: Hitting just .227 with 64 Ks over their last 6 games
Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox (-140)
Dillon Peters vs Lucas Giolito
Seeing this game with a total of 9.5 really catches me off guard because my initial research points to more of a pitcher’s duel than an offensive game. While Giolito has struggled from a run prevention standpoint when pitching at home (struggled compared to on the road), he did strike out 11 against the Angels in 6 innings earlier this season. His other home numbers are actually slightly better than those on the road. Peters is an interesting play as the White Sox offer up strikeouts but they have a few dangerous bats who are swinging it well over the last week. If the White Sox load up with RHBs he is going to pick up a decent amount of Strikeouts but will be at the mercy of possible HR issues.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, David Fletcher
GPP Note: 21 extra-base hits and 30 runs scored with 64 Ks over their last 6 games
CWS 5-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Nearly a 25% K rate vs LHPs this season
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres (-160)
Tim Melville vs Dinelson Lamet
I love Lamet in this spot as I think extremely highly of this kid’s upside. He struck out 7 Rockies in 5 innings while allowing just 3 hits earlier this season and looks to be getting comfortable in his return from Tommy-John. He has a massive K upside and has dominated RHBs throughout his young MLB career. I am not sure what to think of Melville as he has pitched really well during his call-up and the Padres aren’t exactly putting up a ton of runs right now (just 24 over their last 6 games). I think he makes an OK GPP option but I prefer to use some SD bats as one-offs at this point.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Daniel Murphy
GPP Note: 11 HRs and an ISO of .233 over their last 6 games
SD 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Wil Myers
GPP Note: COL pitchers have given up 18 HRs over their last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
