Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Mike Clevinger – Absolutely dominant at home, massive K upside. He offers us the best Carnage Rating to go with the second highest KSCORE on our site. I would expect that to update to the best KSCORE by the time the report is finalized this afternoon.
- Jack Flaherty – Flaherty has the third-best Carnage rating with the second-lowest xwOBA facing him on the slate. Should be in line for a W while pitching at home. He sits in the top five at this point in terms of KSCORE as well.
- Mike Foltynewicz – I will keep falling for Folty as I know what ability he has in his arm and TOR has extreme ups and downs with such a young squad. He makes an excellent GPP option, especially on DK.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays – Game 1
Ty Blach vs Trevor Richards
This is an interesting game as a showdown option (I will have Coaches Notes for this game today). I like Richards’ stuff and his K ability but he does have some trouble with RH power (I know his slugging % allowed is better to LHBs). There are a few bats in this game that are swinging it really well over the last week and this could be a sneaky offensive spot between a team that struggles overall and a team that has struggled vs LHPs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: 7 HRs and 7 SBs over their last 6 games
TB 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Austin Meadows, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last 7 games (12 HRs, 12 2Bs)
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays – Game 2
TBD vs TBD
Waiting on SPs to be announced! As of 2:30 CST, No starters have been announced!
BAL 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note: 7 HRs and 7 SBs over their last 6 games
TB 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last 7 games (12 HRs, 12 2Bs)
Houston Astros (-145) vs Milwaukee Brewers
Zack Greinke vs Jordan Lyles
Greinke returns to Miller Park while Lyles faces one of his former teams as well. The Brewers look lost at the plate overall and I feel like this team is going to fall out of the race over the next week and a half. They face a REALLY tall task here against Greinke after they struck out 20 times on Monday night. Lyles has been really strong as a member of the Brewers but this match-up is FAR from ideal. The Astros are such a dangerous squad and HRs can happen at any point. I think I will only be targeting this game with one-offs but will not argue an Astros stack in a hitters park.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 and 29 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .605 and an ISO of just .118 over their last 6 games
Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees (-290)
Edinson Volquez/Ariel Jurado vs James Paxton
We know that the Rangers struggle mightily against LHPs and that the Yankees are gigantic favorites in a game with a total set at 10.5 runs. Paxton has a path to a really strong game, even in a hitters park with a high total. The Yankees power bats should be in a great spot here as Jurado (long reliever) has been more reverse splits this season but the LHBs are in play against him as well (partly due to the short porch in RF).
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Shin-Soo Choo
GPP Note: Team OBP of just .293 over their last 7 games
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Mike Ford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 with 12 HRs over their last 6 games
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds (-127)
Vince Velasquez vs Lucas Sims
Chalk me up as confused here as the Reds are a home favorite over a Phillies team that smacked around Reds pitching yesterday. The Reds bats come into this game pretty cold overall (very cold outside of Aquino and Suarez). Philadelphia’s bats come in swinging it very well and in a spot to battle for a playoff spot. In his MLB career, Sims has given up more HR power to RHBs but has given up a higher average to LHBs. We do get a double-digit run total in this game as it is set at 10 runs as of this morning.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: 29 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Hitting .198 as a team over their last 8 games
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New York Mets vs Washington Nationals (-135)
Jacob deGrom vs Max Scherzer
I was shocked to see a total at 7.5 for this game but then I realized that Scherzer is still working his way back. Even with him working his way back into form, the Nationals are home favorites here and I could see this game having that playoff-type atmosphere that SP match-ups like this can have. I do not see myself using any bats but you could use any of the guys below as one-off, differentiators in your lineups. Conforto has 4 career HRs vs Scherzer and Soto/Rendon are swinging really hot bats for the Nationals.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Team average of .193 and an OPS of .587 across 180 PAs vs Scherzer
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: Team average of .195 and an OPS of .553 across 238 PAs vs deGrom
Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals (-129)
Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen vs Mike Montgomery
This game is sitting with a total at 9.5 runs and I really want to like the KC side. Montgomery has made 1 start against DET this season and he managed to strike out 12 in 7 innings. He was absolutely dominant in that game so we have to make sure we have some exposure to him, especially as an SP2 on DK. I wish Norris was being used as a traditional starter here as KC has strong numbers against him in their careers, especially the Merrifield-Soler combo.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordy Mercer, Victor Reyes
GPP Note: 79 strikeouts as a team over their last 7 games (just 6 walks during that time frame)
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon
GPP Note: 17 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
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Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates (-170)
Sandy Alcantara vs Mitch Keller
The Pirates come into this game swinging scorching hot bats while the Marlins are swinging icicles at the plate. Keller is a top-level pitching prospect but he has really struggled at the MLB level this season, aside from his K numbers. Alcantara has been really respectable all season and had a very strong August (.174 average allowed). I do not see myself using either SP and will probably have just a few PIT stacks in general.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team average of just .187 over their last 6 games
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Hitting .358 with an OPS of .986 as a team over their last 6 games
Seattle Mariners vs Chicago Cubs
Felix Hernandez vs Jon Lester
This game does not have a line set as of this morning (I assume it is waiting on the potential impact of wind). I really want the Cubs side and the Cubs side only at this point. Lester has dominated the roster of the Mariners in his career and is coming off of a very strong start against the Mets while Hernandez has struggled a ton this season as he just is no longer a strong SP at this point in his career. I am hoping we do not have any extreme wind as I want to use a bunch of Cubs stacks at home.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mallex Smith, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .105 over their last 6 games (4 HRs)
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Victor Caratini
GPP Note: The 4 above have combined for 7 of the team’s 10 HRs and 19 of the teams 30 RBI over the last 7 games
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-249)
Chi Chi Gonzalez vs Julio Urias
Gonzalez is coming off of getting absolutely waxed by PIT and now he faces a Dodgers team that spanked COL pitching last night. The COL pitching staff has just 43 Ks and an OPS against of 1.126 over the last 7 games. Urias is making his return from suspension but should only see around 45 pitches in this spot (2-3 innings of work). This makes it really tough to figure out what to do with COL as Roberts is going to be able to mix and match a bit after Urias.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: 33 extra-base hits over their last 7 games
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson (may sit-out game), Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Matt Beaty, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: COL Pitching has allowed 44 extra-base hits (23 HRs, 20 2Bs, 1 3B) over the last 6 games
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox
Randy Dobnak vs Rick Porcello
As of this morning, I have not heard what the Twins plan to do with this game as Dobnak as pitched out of the bullpen at the MLB level this season. I could see him being pushed to 4-5 innings but I have no source to that as it is just a gut feeling. Dobnak has yet to give up an earned run at the MLB level but has struggled with RHBs so far. This is a VERY tough opponent to be facing if you struggle against RHBs. This game does not have a line set yet as I believe Vegas is looking for more info on whether this is an opener or bullpen type game for the Twins.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: MIN has 16 HRs and 53 runs scored over their last 7 games
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: 12 HRs and 24 total extra-base hits over their last 5 games
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians (-310)
Dylan Cease vs Mike Clevinger
Clevinger has been absolutely filthy all season long, especially when he gets to pitch at home. He has given up just 8 earned runs in 7 home starts and has managed to strike out 62 in just 39.2 innings pitched. He has given up just 6 HRs in 86 innings on the season. I am going to go out on a limb here and say he dominates the White Sox at home in this spot! Cease has a big-time arm with a lack of control and some HR issues.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .083 and 2 HRs over their last 7 games
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman
GPP Note: 11 HRs and a team ISO of .208 over the last 7 games
Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves (-210)
Wilmer Font vs Mike Foltynewicz
Font is expected to open for TOR and they are rumored to be following him with a kid making his debut, Zeuch. Font has been really strong against ATL this season has he has K’d 8 in 5 innings while allowing just 1 hit. He isn’t in play anywhere unless we find out that he will go 3 innings (DK viable). Foltynewicz has been really solid since his return from the minors and should be in line for a W here as long as his pitch count allows him to get us 5+ innings.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: Just 14 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Matt Joyce, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: 42 runs scored over their last 6 games
San Francisco Giants vs St Louis Cardinals (-260)
Dereck Rodriguez vs Jack Flaherty
I honestly think both SPs are in play here (Flaherty is obvious). The Cardinals offense is rather cold at this point as 4 of their 6 HRs over the last week have been hit by Wong and Molina. Their main bats are very cold at this point and that makes Rodriguez very sneaky in my eyes. In fact, SF is coming in hotter at the plate and has the better BvP in their favor. I am not a fool, however, as I really like Flaherty’s ability and think he steps up for the Cardinals in an important spot.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Just 19 runs scored over their last 6 games
STL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong
4-star plays: Yadier Molina, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: 30 runs scored over their last 7 games
Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics (-155)
Jaime Barria vs Mike Fiers
This game feels like an HR filled affair and I want to make sure I take advantage of that. Fiers is always at the mercy of BABIP as a flyball pitcher and Barria has given up 11 HRs in 39.1 road innings this season. There is a lot of power in this game and the Angels have a few HRs in their careers against Fiers (7 total). I have no interest in either pitcher, especially in a park that suppresses strikeout numbers.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Hitting just .220 as a team over the last 5 games
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Seth Brown, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Brown and Olson are a combined 22 for 54 with 12 RBI over the last 7 days
San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Ronald Bolanos vs Merrill Kelly
Bolanos will be making his MLB debut here and should be treated as a traditional starter as SD has changed their mind about using an opener ahead of Bolanos. Kelly hasn’t been all that great this season and while the Padres are missing Reyes and Tatis Jr., there is enough power in this lineup to make things go wrong for him. The game doesn’t have a line set yet as I am sure Vegas is waiting on the exact nature of Bolanos’ usage.
SD 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Ty France
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: ISO of .201 but just 31 runs scored over their last 7 games
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team average of .293 and an ISO of .228 over the last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
