Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Walker Buehler – Buehler has struggled a bit but he gets a solid match-up here. His K numbers are still through the roof, even with his recent struggles. He offers us the highest VKSCORE in our Carnage Report.
- Ryan Yarbrough – Yarbrough currently sports our best Carnage rating and I LOVE taking LHPs against the Rangers. He has been spectacular on the road this season as well.
- Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has struggled with control but has been limiting hits as he gets ramped up to a full workload. The Blue Jays have struggled recently and he has our third best KSCORE on our Carnage Report.
We have a BRAND NEW update to our MLB Domination Station lineup optimizer with advanced user-controlled scoring systems inside. You control how the lineups are built from three main uses of our projections: Points based, DFSA Grades, or the unique blend of Hybrid Scoring! The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like 
Love 
or Dislike 
a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the MLB Research Station to really take your game to the next level. Also, see our “How to Crush” Series of videos designed to walk you through both process and lineup construction using our various tools. These videos are must-watch for any serious player!
Full Count Breakdown:
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers
Undecided vs Edwin Jackson
Waiting on the Yankees to announce an SP
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: 14 HRs and 28 total extra-base hits over their last 6 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Victor Reyes, Harold Castro
GPP Note: Just 16 runs over their last 6 games
Atlanta Braves (-160) vs Philadelphia Phillies
Max Fried vs Jason Vargas
Both SPs have struggled against the opposition this season as they have combined to pitch 12 innings and allow 14 runs over 5 games. They have combined to walk 10 batters in those 12 innings. Fried has given up 4 HRs to the Phillies while Vargas managed to get just 1 out in his start against ATL. Both teams are swinging it with some thump, as seen below by their ISO’s. We could see some runs scored here, in a hitter’s ballpark. Fried has 20 Ks over his last 13 innings (2 starts) so he is the SP that I prefer from this game.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over the last 6 games
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
4-star plays: Scott Kingery, Sean Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 and 35 runs over their last 7 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-320) vs Baltimore Orioles
Walker Buehler vs Ty Blach
Buehler seems to have hit a bit of a wall as the season winds down. He has given up 11 runs over his last 22 innings (4 starts) but he has managed to strike out 30 during those innings. The Orioles pitching staff has given up 276 HRs on the season, 161 of them have come at home this season. This series could see the Dodgers put up a TON of HRs, I am really pumped to be using them in this park, against this pitching staff.
LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: David Freese, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Hitting just .193 but a team ISO of .213 over their last 5 games
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Rio Ruiz
GPP Note: Just 19 runs and an ISO of .144 over their last 6 games
Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Nathan Eovaldi vs T.J. Zeuch
Eovaldi looked strong in his last start but we just don’t know how deep he is going to pitch and if his control is going to disappear. He has 5 walks over his last 9 innings pitched. Zeuch gets to face BOS at an ideal time as most of the lineup is struggling mightily, outside of Betts basically. This game has a surprising total of 10.5 runs. I am surprised because of how cold these offenses have been over the last week. This game is GPP only for me, minus Betts.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
4-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Just 24 runs over their last 7 games, 67 extra-base hits in 16 games against TOR this season
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Hitting just .177 with 12 runs scored over their last 5 games
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential, to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets (-125)
Zac Gallen vs Zack Wheeler
I am a HUGE fan of Gallen as many of you probably have noticed via my notes and this article throughout the second half. He has made 1 start against the Mets this season and went 5 innings and allowed just 2 runs. He did struggle and allowed 9 baserunners (4 hits, 5 walks) in that game. Wheeler struck out 9 but allowed 4 runs against ARI earlier this season, across 7 innings. The Mets side is my preferred side here even though I have that man-crush on Gallen. They are swinging the bat really well while ARI, outside of Marte, is struggling a bit.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Just 19 runs and an average of .199 over the last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto
GPP Note: 12 HRs with an OPS of .897 over their last 6 games
Milwaukee Brewers (-180) vs Miami Marlins
Chase Anderson vs Elieser Hernandez
This game really intrigues me from a bats perspective. Both SPs in this game have a clear weakness and both offenses have the lineups to take advantage of those weaknesses. Anderson is a reverse splits SP while Hernandez has his struggles against LHBs. Both of those are going to be put to the test in this game. The total sits at 8.5 and I would expect that to climb slightly, even in a big-time pitcher’s ballpark.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Trent Grisham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over their last 6 games
MIA 5-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jorge Alfaro
4-star plays: Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .133 over their last 7 games
MLB Research Station is my #1 source for research every single day and is one of the VIP Only tools our members have access to daily. The info in the MLB Research Station includes today’s 
DFS Army Projection, Adjusted BVP matchups and much more. This tool will cut your daily research time in half. If you’re familiar with CeeGee and Ben you already know the time they’ve put into the “Sheets” and are extremely happy to provide them as apart of your DFS Army VIP Membership this year.
Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins (-145)
Anibal Sanchez vs Jose Berrios
Berrios has given up 20 earned runs over his last 26.2 innings, which is worrisome against a team swinging the bat pretty well. The Twins need him to step up with the suspension of Pineda. This game has a pretty high total as of this morning, it is sitting at 10.5 runs. Minnesota has hit 123 HRs in 71 home games this season, with a team ISO of .218.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Hitting .284 with 24 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Twins have 12 HRs in 167 ABs against Sanchez
Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs Texas Rangers
Ryan Yarbrough vs Lance Lynn
This game opened with a total set at 9 runs and I actually think that might be too high at this point. I really like this SP match-up as Lynn has done a great job of limiting power to LHBs while Yarbrough gets to face a team that struggles mightily against LHPs. Yarbrough is going to find himself at the top of my SP rankings for DK later this afternoon. Meadows is one of the hottest bats in all of baseball so I definitely will have a TON of exposure to him.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 and 22 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .156 over their last 6 games
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox (-110)
Jakob Junis vs Ivan Nova
This game is going to be one I target for the offense. There are some strong BvP numbers on both sides plus both teams have a few guys who are swinging really hot bats right now. I almost never have interest in Nova and Junis is a rare occasion thanks soley on his strikeout ability. I definitely will be game-stacking here.
KC 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .124 over the last 6 games
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 with 26 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros (-155)
Tanner Roark vs Wade Miley
Miley has struggled a bit recently while Roark continues to impress me with his ability to get easy outs. With that being said, he isn’t going to continue to keep getting easy outs in this game. The Astros just put up 15 runs last night, which brings their total to 36 runs over the last two games. Talk about hot offense, the Astros are going to carry a lot of ownership tonight.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Hitting just .199 with an OPS of .599 vs HOU this season (16 games)
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Josh Reddick
GPP Note: 58 runs scored over their last 6 games with an ISO of .308
St Louis Cardinals (-145) vs Colorado Rockies
Michael Wacha vs Chi Chi Gonzalez
The Cardinals are in an excellent spot traveling to Coors to start this series. They have multiple guys swinging for power right now while not striking out. Gonzalez doesn’t strike out many guys and allows a TON of contact. The Rockies bats are ice-cold at this point but that does NOT bring Wacha into play for me. Expect to see a lot of runs put up in this game as the total is sitting at 13.5 runs.
STL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Just 37 strikeouts as a team over their last 6 games
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Yonder Alonso
GPP Note: Just 2 HRs and a team ISO of .075 over their last 5 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants (-120)
Mitch Keller vs Johnny Cueto
Cueto makes his return and I am excited to see it as he is one of the pitcher’s that have enjoyed watching over the years. His stuff has deteriorated but it’s fun to see what he does to try and keep hitters off-balance. Keller left his last start after taking a line drive off of his wrist but is said to be fine to make this start. He was on his way to having an impressive performance prior to that line drive. I think Keller makes for an interesting GPP option tonight as the Giants offense is really struggling right now.
PIT 5-star plays: Adam Frazier
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Melky Cabrera
GPP Note: Team strikeout rate of just 21% over the last 7 games
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Mauricio Dubon
GPP Note: Just 11 extra-base hits and an ISO of .082 over their last 7 games
Cleveland Indians vs Los Angeles Angels
Zach Plesac vs Jose Suarez
Plesac is in a great spot as the Angels will be without Trout for a couple of games. He has been a reverse splits pitcher so far in his MLB career and while the Angels do have a couple of strong RHBs, missing Trout is a HUGE hole. The Indians bats are in a solid spot as Suarez has struggled MIGHTILY against RHBs so far this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Yasiel Puig
GPP Note: 77 Strikeouts over their last 7 games (just 20 extra-base hits)
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Justin Upton
GPP Note: 12 HRs but only 27 runs over their last 7 games
Chicago Cubs (-155) vs San Diego Padres
Jose Quintana vs Ronald Bolanos
Bolanos was pretty impressive in his first start but that won’t keep me off of the Cubs in this spot. He struggled against LHBs in that start and the Cubs offer a few that are extremely dangerous. Quintana and the Cubs are going to find themselves at the top of my lists later this afternoon as the Padres offense is absolutely ICE-COLD.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Ben Zobrist
GPP Note: Team ISO of .225 over the last 6 games (Cubs pitchers have allowed 10 SBs over the last 6)
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Team average of .193 with an ISO of .063 over their last 6 games
Cincinnati Reds (-125) vs Seattle Mariners
Trevor Bauer vs Justus Sheffield
This seems like a get right spot for Bauer who has struggled ridiculously since his trade to Cincinnati. The Mariners are really cold at the plate while the Reds have some bats that can do damage against LHPs. I think I am only going to look at one-off bats from this game with Suarez being one of my top bats on the entire slate.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Alex Blandino
GPP Note: Just 23 runs and 17 extra-base hits over the last 6 games
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dee Gordon, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Hitting just .183 as a team over their last 5 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
