Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 10:00 am central time.
A look at pitchers
With his solid stats across the board, Bieber looks to be a premier cash option today, though the argument could be made for Nola as well for his matchup (his carnage may not be as good, but we do have some options today at least). There are a handful of interesting GPP options, such as the high KSCORE guys (Matz, Ray, and Boyd to name a few).
Agrazal looks to make for a very interesting GPP punt with how low is carnage rating is, but be very careful here; that 5.52 SIERA is there for a reason! Unless the other coaches find something very promising, I wouldn’t go there in cash. Speaking of which, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where they’re leaning today!
Offenses to target
Another day, another slate where Washington has one of the best carnage ratings on the board. Nothing surprising there. Some more interesting options include Detroit and their 6.24 carnage against Perez, as well as Arizona’s 7.36 carnage against Davies. Of course, Texas gets Lopez who has been known to give up some big hits, as his 5.59 SIERA implies, so they’re a solid option as well. There are others in interesting spots too, so let’s take a look at each game today, shall we?
Full Count Breakdown
Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with another Camden Yards game (that seems to start off a lot of slates these days), and after the dud they put up yesterday, the Rays will look to get back to it against Bundy. As usual, there’s a high ceiling for both sides of this one, especially the Rays, as they’ll get another crack at this Baltimore bullpen. Both teams are certainly in play though, even if only for GPP stacks.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Sogard, Meadows, Kiermaier (BvP)
GPP note – They dropped the ball yesterday but they’ll look to pick it back up today. Stack away!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Alberto, Nunez, Santander, Villar
GPP note – There’s not much BvP but these guys are certainly in play whenever they’re at home and not facing an ace
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Next up are two low floor / high ceiling teams, at least in this matchup. There’s some BvP on both sides of this one, some good some bad, and some recent performances that went in the pitcher’s favor. There’s still a decent chance that one of these teams could go off, so don’t forget about them in GPP today.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Freeman (BvP)
Braves 4 star plays – Donaldson, Albies
GPP note – There have been some strikeouts in this matchup but also plenty of hits, so while the floor may be questionable the ceiling is as high as any other team’s is, so big stacks are in play here
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Rosario, McNeil, Conforto
GPP note – The strikeouts for Keuchel have been going up, so like the Braves, their floor may not be the best in this matchup. For GPP though, they still have a high ceiling
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
My Royals take on Bieber and the Indians again here next, and we’ll see Skoglund in his 2019 debut as well. He’s got some potential, but I’m not sure he’ll be overly sharp here starting this late in the season. Both pitchers have a place today, Bieber in cash and Skoglund in GPP, both as far as offenses go, I’d only be interested in the Cleveland bats.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Soler, Dozier, Gordon
GPP note – Tough matchup against Bieber. Contrarian stacks only
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Santana, Mercado, Reyes
GPP note – No BvP against Skoglund, but they do know how this pitching staff operates, so don’t be afraid to go here
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marins
Another cash option, we get Nola against the Marlins, who has handled them twice so far this year. On the other side, Hernandez hasn’t been terrible, but some smaller stacks could still be used here (Hoskins offers some BvP).
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins (BvP), Dickerson, Segura
GPP note – I’m not sure that full stacks are the answer here, but one-offs or smaller stacks are certainly in play
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker
GPP note – Tough matchup against Nola. Contrarian stacks only
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
Another high-dollar arm, we get Bauer against the Pirates here. I think I’d prefer Nola or Bieber for cash games, but Bauer still represents a high-ceiling option for GPP. Agrazal has had a lot of struggles lately, so I can’t say I have much of any interest in him here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Aquino, VanMeter, Galvis
GPP note – Agrazal hasn’t been super, so attacking him isn’t a bad idea
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Reynolds, Moran
GPP note – Tough matchup against Bauer, but they probably have the highest ceiling of the contrarian stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers
Similar to Bauer, Ray is another high-ceiling GPP option, but I don’t think think we need to go here in cash games. Davies looks to be off-limits for cash games too, with how many ups and downs he’s had this season. The Diamondbacks look to be a decent stack to try in hopes that he has another rough game here.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Dyson
GPP note – Decent matchup against a volatile pitcher that could pay off spectacularly
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Hiura, Cain, Braun
GPP note – Tough matchup against Ray but they’re another contrarian option to pivot away from the chalk
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
We get two strong offenses going up against pitchers that have had plenty of struggles recently, which puts both teams firmly in play today as a high-ceiling option. Their floors will probably be a bit of a “player by player” case, but as a whole, both teams offer something for cash games and GPP alike.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Upton, Fletcher, Ohtani
GPP note – The righties are the priority here, as Valdez has allowed plenty to them as of late
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Gurriel
GPP note – The lefties are the main target here, but any of these talented righties can be used wherever you can squeeze them in
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
It’s a shame that Gallo is out, as this is a great spot for the Texas lefties to have a game, but there are at least a few others to consider. The White Sox will face a pitcher who has only had one appearance so far, so it’s hard to predict how this one will go. The safe option here is to load up on the Rangers (especially the lefties), but if you’re feeling ambitious, you could look at some White Sox bats to be a little different.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana, Calhoun, Odor
GPP note – Target the lefties!
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, McCann, Anderson
GPP note – It’s a questionable matchup but the righties here could offer some value for GPP
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
The Tigers delayed Boyd’s previous start, possibly so he could be ready for the Twins today, so we’ll see how that works out for them. He’s yet another high-ceiling GPP option today, but given the matchup, we don’t need to go here for cash games. Really, this entire game screams GPP, so I would get my cash game choices elsewhere.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Perez hasn’t been overpowering by any means, but this offense’s struggles are well known. You could always go here in GPP if you want an un-owned stack, though
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cruz, Polanco, Cron, Garver
GPP note – Tough matchup against Boyd who is coming in on extra rest. There is some BvP here though, so some contrarian stacks are certainly in play
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Colorado Rockies at St Louis Cardinals
It may not be Coors, but with how bad Wacha and Senzatela have been at times this year, this game could certainly produce a score that is similar to what we see out of Denver. I wouldn’t go crazy on this game for cash purposes, but there’s a lot to love here for GPP. I think anything from one-offs to all-out game stacks could be used here, or anything in between.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Murphy, Story, McMahon
GPP note – Nobody stacks the Rockies on the road, but they have a high ceiling in this matchup. You’ll have them all to yourself!
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt, Fowler, Wong, Ozuna
GPP note – When Senzatela implodes he really implodes, so this puts the Cardinals in play as another decently high-ceiling GPP option
Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs
Our final game for the main slate will feature yet another high-ceiling GPP pitcher, Strasburg, as well as one Cole Hamels who has been rather hit-or-miss as of late. With how hot the Nationals have been coming into this one, he’ll need to be on his game, otherwise, they’ll make quick work of him. Needless to say, they’re in play once again here.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Kendrick, Soto
GPP note – A hot offense faces a volatile pitcher. High ceiling without the questionably low floor of some of the other stacks on the day
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Heyward, Bryant, Castellanos, Schwarber, Rizzo (if he plays)
GPP note – Tough matchup against Strasburg, especially if Rizzo isn’t playing. Contrarian stacks only
Late slate(s)
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
At first glance, I really like the Giants here, as they can be scrappy and Anderson has allowed a lot of contact, though he’s managed to get by without getting totally shelled. There’s a decent chance that changes today, so don’t forget about the lowly Giants here. As for the Athletics, it’s hard to say since we haven’t seen much from Webb yet, but his debut looked promising.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Pillar, Posey, Longoria, Belt
GPP note – Stacking these guys isn’t the most exciting thing to do, but the matchup is there today. If nothing else, consider Pillar as a one-off
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Olson, Chapman, Semien, Davis
GPP note – Stacking here is a coin-flip, as we haven’t really seen enough out of Webb to know where he is (he did look good in his debut though, so if nothing else, you could take some shots with him against a team that isn’t afraid to strike out)
Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres
It’s a shame that the Red Sox landed on Johnson today, as this could have been a fun potential pitcher’s duel with Lucchesi on the mound for the Padres. Still, Lucchesi isn’t terribly expensive for the ceiling he has, and nobody will be playing him against the Red Sox. Pay up to be contrarian, if you’re brave enough!
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers
GPP note – Tough matchup against Lucchesi and there’s no BvP here. It’s not a bad idea to hedge some Red Sox stacks with some Lucchesi-led lineups in GPP today
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Mejia, Renfroe, Hosmer
GPP note – No BvP here either but Johnson is a much softer target than Lucchesi is, so I’d prefer some stacks here if you can only choose one side
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
We get a couple of average pitchers to cap off the afternoon slate, as well as one semi-dangerous offense (Toronto) and one that might be struggling a bit, but still has some talented lefties that could make life difficult for Buchholz here. I think both offenses have something to offer here and make a good way to get a little different here if you’re worried about some other teams being too chalky.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Bichette, Guerrero, Smoak
GPP note – With no BvP to go off of, I’d lean towards the hard-hitting righties this team has
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Narvaez, Crawford, Nola
GPP note – The strong lefties here make for solid one-off or mini-stack options to help make your other stacks pop that much more
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, our showdown game will feature the iconic Yankees and Dodgers facing off again, this time with two of their best on the mound. I was hoping to see Kershaw vs Paxton, but German is no slouch, so this should be a fun one to watch either way. As always, be sure to check the coach’s notes page to see where we’re leaning for this showdown game!
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – LeMahieu, Judge, Torres, Sanchez
GPP note – Tough matchup against Kershaw who they have very little BvP against outside of LeMahieu. We’ll need to be very selective on who we use here, but LeMahieu’s BvP puts him a notch above his teammates
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Bellinger, Muncy, Pederson
GPP note – Same as above but virtually zero BvP against German
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
