Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
Welp, Wade Miley leads the way today…those are words I never thought I’d say, but here we are! Unfortunately, both sites have cranked up his salary due to his matchup against the Tigers, so we’ll have to dig in a bit to figure out if he’s worth the asking price or not.
Aside from him, we have a few high-ceiling options (with high KSCOREs), such as Bauer, McKay, and Allard. We’ll need to dig in a little more to figure out who the best cash options are, but if nothing else, these guys represent some good GPP options.
As usual, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see who we’re liking today!
Offenses to target
There’s certainly no shortage of good options here today, as we have a whopping eight offenses facing a pitcher with a carnage rating of 6.02 or worse. Among them will be some chalky options like Houston and Minnesota, but don’t forget about the rest of them. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see who we like for some pivots!
Full Count Breakdown
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the battle of the crappy bullpens, in what could turn into an ugly game for both pitching staffs. Needless to say, I don’t recommend touching the arms on either side of this one, but there will be plenty of good offensive options on both sides. Camden Yards + two bad bullpens = lots of fantasy goodness!
Royals 5 star plays – Merrifield
Royals 4 star plays – Soler, Dozier, Cuthbert, Gordon
GPP note – Nobody likes to stack my Royals, but I don’t think you should overlook their ceiling here today
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar, Mancini, Santander, Nunez
GPP note – They’ll probably be more popular, but they’re in a great spot here regardless. Stack away!
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Next up are two more offenses with lots of good looking carnage ratings (6.93 for the Pirates, 7.66 for the Nationals), so again we have a game here that could offer a bunch of production. The early signs point towards some potential rain issues, so keep an eye on #dfs-weather for the latest updates. As long as they play, don’t be afraid to go here, especially if the weather looks “bad” to others but Mark gives us the green flag. Having some lower-owned, high-ceiling stacks all to ourselves is always good!
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon, Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner
GPP note – They get one of the best carnage ratings on the board today, and they’ve been hot, so stack away!
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Marte, Reynolds, Moran, Frazier
GPP note – Great spot for the Pirates, especially the lefties. They tend to be a bit lower-owned than other teams in good spots, but they have just as high of a ceiling most of the time (today included)
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
We get a break from the carnage with this one, as we have two of the lower carnage ratings on the board today with these two (3.74 for Gonzales and a 4.12 for McKay). Of the two, I certainly like McKay better at first glance, as his KSCORE and VKSCORE are the second-highest on the day. There’s not a whole lot of BvP to go around here either, for either side, so I’d look at some one-offs or look elsewhere for your bats.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana, Nola, Seager
GPP note – Not a great matchup and not much Vegas love. I’d look at one-off or just look elsewhere
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, d’Arnaud
GPP note – I don’t mind a power righty as a one-off (or maybe a mini-stack), but I don’t know that full-stacks are the answer here today
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
Another low-carnage game, we get Bauer and Lauer (oh man, that rhymes!) facing off at a hitter-friendly ballpark. Interesting! So, what do we make of that? Well, I don’t think people will be looking here for their stacks, so if you want some lower-owned contrarian stacks, you’ve come to the right game! Lauer has shown some serious reverse-splits action, so if you’re wanting to roll out some Reds stacks, look hard at the lefties there. Bauer is tough, but don’t forget about the BvP that Machado has against him (9 for 14 with a whopping 4 homers).
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado (BvP), Hosmer, Mejia
GPP note – Full-stacks might not be the answer, but Machado’s BvP is for real, so you could grab him and some Reds for a lower-owned approach
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Senzel, VanMeter, Aquino
GPP note – Lauer has some big reverse splits going on, so stack some lefties if you want a low-owned stack with a high ceiling (power righties are fine too)
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
So I don’t know if it was just some early-season hotness, or maybe the Cardinals called him a mean name or something, but do you remember when Yelich hit around ten thousand homers against the Cardinals earlier this season? Well, it’s been a while, and he’ll face them again here, so I thought I would bring that up.
They’re in good company though, as Davies has allowed a whopping 6 homers in his last 3 starts dating back to July. Granted, two of those games were against the Cubs, but still..that’s pretty alarming. Anyway, both sides of this one look primed for an offensive shootout, so don’t let that 9.5 implied total trick you.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich (BvP…BvT??)
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas (BvP), Grandal, Grisham
GPP note – Maybe it’ll go up as the day goes on, but that 4.48 implied total (at opening) seems way too low. If it stays low, this could be an excellent lower-owned stacks
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Carpenter (BvP), Goldschmidt, Edman, Fowler
GPP note – Their 5+ implied total is more reasonable, but they could quickly go to the over here facing Davies, who has been getting rocked
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
His 444 KSCORE doesn’t really show it, but Peters finds himself in a good spot to rack up some strikeouts against the Rangers (he did just fan 8 Red Sox in his last start..just saying!). If nothing else, he makes a good GPP target, so keep him in mind today as you’re setting up your pitching pool. We haven’t seen much of Allard yet, so it’s hard to know what to expect, but his 524 KSCORE is promising, so he could be an interesting option as well.
As for the bats, the usual guys are in play, but perhaps just one-offs or mini-stacks. Both offenses offer high ceilings when they have a good game, but seeing as both pitchers have looked good, this might not be the game for them to erupt.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Ohtani, Upton
GPP note – Allard needs to get his walks in check, which he probably will with more starts, but he hasn’t been getting blown up. I think smaller stacks or one-offs are the better options here
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Santana, Choo, Pence, Andrus
GPP note – Peters will probably allow a homer here, but he doesn’t seem to get entirely blown up. I think one-offs or mini-stacks are the way to go here, too
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Let’s just cut to the chase here, shall we? Nova is weak to lefties and the Twins just love to smash righties, especially at home, so they are the #1 target in this game. The Whtie Sox have seen Gibson plenty but haven’t really figured out how to get to him yet. It’ll eventually happen, as this is baseball, it’s just a matter of when.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu (BvP)
GPP note – They know Gibson pretty well but haven’t really capitalized on it yet. If you want a low-owned stack with a questionably high ceiling, this is your team
Twins 5 star plays – Cruz (BvP)
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Rosario
GPP note – The lefties are in a prime spot to go off here, and even some righties like Cruz (BvP!)
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Oh boy. Welp, if nothing else, this will be an interesting one to watch! Once again the Astros are the heavy favorites, as they’ll face Edwin “I can’t stop giving up home runs” Jackson with the highest implied total on the board. They’ll be chalky, but they’ll be in a fantastic spot here to go off, so you can look to them to do some damage in all formats. The Tigers will face Miley, who has been good this year, but he’s also a victim of a huge price increase on DraftKings.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Cabrera
GPP note – Vegas and DraftKings loooove Miley, but the interesting part is that the BvP actually favors the Tigers here, so if you want to go contrarian, I couldn’t say it would be a terrible idea
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman, Alvarez, Brantley…the entire friggin’ team
GPP note – Behold, the Houston Chalkstros!
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
And finally, our hammer games features another round of Rockies & Diamondbacks action, this time in Arizona. Chase Field might not be the mini-Coors it once was, but with two high carnage ratings (7.15 and 8.03), it might not even matter. Both teams are in a good spot to do some damage here, so they make another good pivot to the chalky Astros. As for the pitchers….meeeh!!
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Murphy, McMahon
GPP note – Just because they aren’t at Coors doesn’t mean they aren’t worth stacking. They certainly are!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – Marte, Escobar
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Dyson, Peralta, Walker
GPP note – They get the best carnage rating on the board today, so they deserve some stacks against Gonzalez
And that’s going to do it for this one. Good luck today, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
