Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Charlie Morton – Morton is one of the safest options on this slate that we have had all year, however that is baked into his $11.9k price tag. He draws a matchup against the Seattle Mariners who have an implied run total of just 3.6 here. Seattle is striking out at a 27.8% rate against right-handed pitching to go along with Morton’s elite 30.2% k rate. The Mariners strikeout rate continues to rise with the additions of guys like Keon Broxton, it’s hard not to like Morton here, he’s a great option at SP1 if you can find the salary to do so.
- Sonny Gray – I usually hate pitching guys in this ballpark because it is so small and susceptible to big innings, but Sonny Gray has been incredible this season. He has gone for at least 21 Draftkings points in three of his last four games and is averaging 18.1 over his last ten games. Gray has faced the Cubs a whopping three times this season and is averaging 21.3 Draftkings points per game, so it seems as if he has them figured out. The Cubs have just a 4.3 implied run total which seems a bit high to be targeting pitchers against, but in this ballpark with the talent this offense has, I was expecting it to be higher. I like Gray here.
- Chris Paddack – Paddack is coming off of a rough outing against the Dodgers which I hope keeps his ownership down. Let’s be honest, who doesn’t come out of a start against the Dodgers a little banged up. He draws the Rockies in this matchup, and some of you may know that I love love love targeting pitchers against them away from Coors field. They are a completely average offense on the road and they get a massive park downgrade heading into San Diego. The Rockies are striking out at a 24.5% rate on the season to go with Paddack’s 26.4% k rate. I like Paddack to bounce back here.
- Honorable Mentions – Adrian Houser, look he’s really nothing great, but a price tag of $4.9k makes him very worthy of an SP2 spot on Draftkings against this Texas team that losses a DH on the road in an NL park. Aaron Sanchez is coming off of a game where the team threw a combined no-hitter against the Seattle Mariners, now he gets the Baltimore Orioles. He has scored at least 17 Draftkings points in three straight starts. Tough not to like him at this price tag.
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Full Count Breakdown:
New York Yankees (-149) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+137)
I’ll start by saying Gio Urshela finally came down to earth last night with a two point outing. His price has gotten all the way up to over $5k on Draftkings, can’t say I saw that coming this season. This looks like it will be a bullpen day for the Yankees as Chad Green will draw the start, I’m not all that interested in targeting the Jays here. I do like the Yankees however, Waguespack has been able to stay afloat over his last few starts, but the Yankees are a different beast. They have an implied run total of 6.1 and are one of the best stacks on the early slate.
NYY 5-star plays: Gio Urshela, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Mike Ford
GPP Note: I would expect Aaron Judge back in the lineup and him combined with guys like Didi and Mike Ford, make this stack very affordable.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Lourdes Gurriel
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: They are priced up here, but these kids can play. At similar prices, I would rather go with the Yankees though.
Los Angeles Angels (+129) @ Boston Red Sox (-140)
This will be Andrew Heaney’s first start since coming off of the IL, I can’t see myself getting to him potentially on a pitch count and in a matchup against one of the best offenses in baseball. Rick Porcello is on the other side of this one, and he was finally able to grab a nice outing going for 21.9 Draftkings points against the Royals last time out. That said, I won’t be using either pitcher here. If I had to pick a stack it would be the Red Sox who draw another left handed pitcher, Mookie and JD are heating up, look out.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: 5.3 implied run total against a guy that can’t seem to find consistency this season, I like them as a tier two stack on this early slate.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: JD hit two homers last night to go with Mookie’s bomb as well, if this team is starting to heat up you’re going to want exposure to their 6.3 implied run total. They’re right there with the Yankees on this early slate.
Philadelphia Phillies (-104) @ San Francisco Giants (-104)
Well targeting pitchers against the Giants offense has not worked well for me over the past two days with Aaron Nola and Drew Smyly, but yes I will go back to the well here. Vince Velasquez has been very good as of late and just scored 15.1 Draftkings points against this team in Philadelphia, now he gets them in a big pitchers park. I like VV here. Jeff Samardzija is a good option as well, although he feels a bit overpriced. This Phillies team has struggled this season and Samardzija scored 25.6 Draftkings points against them just a few starts ago.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I’m not stacking in this stadium
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I have more interest in Vince Velasquez than I would like to admit, but no Giants for me.
Atlanta Braves (-225) @ Miami Marlins (+206)
The Braves are massive favorites here as Mike Soroka takes the mound. Soroka has been pretty good this season, but this is an extreme favorite, it probably has something to do with Sandy Alcantara on the other side. Soroka is a great pitching option here, in two matchups against the Marlins this season he is averaging a massive 28.6 Draftkings points per game.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: I want to stack up the Braves here, but I’m just not going to do it in this ballpark when there are other great spots on this slate.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Isan Diaz
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, Soroka is the best pitching option on this early slate, so I likely won’t get to much here.
Kansas City Royals (+121) @ Detroit Tigers (-131)
Spencer Turnbull must love facing the Royals by now, as he his started against them four times this season and counting. In those four starts he is averaging 16.2 Draftkings points per game and I think is a pretty solid mid-range option here. I love streaming pitchers against the Tigers, but I don’t see myself getting to Mike Montgomery here, I just don’t think the talent is there with him. He is coming off of a very nice start against Boston though which is promising.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays:Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Turnbull than I will this offense, so just one-offs and maybe a mini-stack for me.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Jacoby Jones, Brandon Dixon
GPP Note: Even though I don’t want any of Montgomery, I just can’t get myself to this team. It is a AAA team now that Castellanos is gone, the 5.1 implied run total is hard to ignore though.
Houston Astros (-253) @ Baltimore Orioles (+230)
Aaron Sanchez made my honorable mentions in my pitchers section. I don’t know what the Astros do to pitchers, but when they get guys they turn them into very solid starters at the very least, so I think Sanchez is certainly in play as an SP2 in this matchup. The Astros will yet again be a top stack for me as they get Aaron Brooks followed by the worst bullpen in the league, fire them up!
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: The Astros are one of the best stacks on the slate, they have an implied run total of 6.9 runs on the road in Baltimore. Baltimore is a great park for runs and the Astros being the road team guarantees ninth-inning at-bats, hard not to like the Astros here, although VERY expensive.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Aaron Sanchez as an SP2, I just don’t see the talent in this Orioles lineup.
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Cleveland Indians (+133) @ Minnesota Twins (+144)
Jake Odorizzi has come down to earth after starting the season white hot. He gets a very tough matchup with the Indians who have a new look offense with Reyes and Puig in it. I likely won’t get to him or Plutko here just because these offenses are so good, but Odorizzi is a GPP play at the very least if you want to go there. The Twins have an implied run total of 5.5 here against Plutko who has kind of been decent lately. While the Indians have a 4.6 implied run total.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: The Indians just aren’t a team that I’ll get to here, they don’t make my tier two stacks, so I will go elsewhere.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: I think the Twins will be a tier two stack for me, they just aren’t in the same category as the Astros here. But I do like the upside.
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Texas Rangers (+183) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-200)
The Brewers are big favorites in this one as the Rangers are throwing Pedro Payano on the mound. The rookie hasn’t been all that great this year and is running into a Brewers offense that is getting hot, he might be one of the easiest fades on the slate. I wrote up Adrian Houser as a honorable mention in the pitchers section. This Texas lineup looks much worse when they lose the DH, if you can get 10-12 points out of Houser as your SP2 on Draftkings you’ll be happy.
TEX 5-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Hunter Pence
GPP Note: There are some really nice power one-offs on this team, don’t be afraid to use them even if you are using Houser. I won’t be stacking them up, however.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (if he plays), Keston Hiura, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Trent Grisham, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames
GPP Note: This Brewers team has won four in a row and I think are starting to get into a bit of a groove, I love them here with a massive 6 implied run total. They are up in that tier one with the Astros as my favorite stack on the slate.
Washington Nationals (+111) @ New York Mets (-121)
The Mets have now won seven straight games after their victory last night, and what they are doing is incredible right now. They are the hottest team in baseball and this pitching rotation is one to fear heading forward. Tonight they get Syndergaard on the mound who I think is at least worthy of a look here. He has been great over his past five starts he hasn’t scored less than 18 Draftkings points and is averaging 20.3 per start against the Nationals in three starts against them this season. Patrick Corbin takes the mound on the other side and he is worth a look as well. He’s faced the Mets four times this season and is averaging 21.1 Draftkings points per game. This is a game where I will just be using the pitchers, there is no need to target offenses against these two studs.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Syndergaard is a guy I don’t stack against when he is pitching well, I’ll find elsewhere to go on this slate
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Patrick Corbin is similar to Syndergaard here, I’m not using offenses against him.
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Oakland Athletics (-167) @ Chicago White Sox (+154)
Tanner Roark was very solid in his debut with the A’s and now gets a weak White Sox team. Roark makes sense as an SP2 or a very cheap SP1, but I would rather go to Sonny Gray in the same price range. Reynaldo Lopez is typically a great GPP option because of his ability to just whip 10 k’s out of nowhere and get you 30 Draftkings points. I don’t think he does that here, so I’ll stay away from him. I really don’t like either of these offenses that much, I guess you could make a case for the A’s, but I’m not going to go there.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Marcus Semien
GPP Note: I’m sticking with one-offs here, the A’s just aren’t jumping off the page to me.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Same story for the White Sox here, Roark has been solid this year and will look to keep that going. I’ll go elsewhere.
Chicago Cubs (-104) @ Cincinnati Reds (-104)
Yet another pick ’em game between these two. This time it is Kyle Hendricks against Sonny Gray, two pitchers that are very tough to score runs on. I wrote up Sonny Gray in my pitchers section and is one of my favorite options on this slate. He comes with a ton of upside and not a whole lot of downside that I can see. I don’t love targeting pitchers in this ballpark, but I love Gray here. I want to get some Hendricks here but I just don’t think I can pay that price for him, so I’ll wait for a different spot for him.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to be targeting Sonny Gray here, he is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Same story for the Reds here, Kyle Hendricks is great at limiting hard contact.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+152) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-165)
Joe Musgrove has been all over the place this season and looks like he may be back in bad form coming off a start where he gave up eight earned runs to the Mets. I like the Cardinals as a tier two stack here. The Pirates I just don’t have a lot of interest in, nor do I want to go with Adam Wainwright. Just the Cardinals offense here for me.
PIT 5-star plays: Starlin Marte, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: I like some pieces and one-offs on this team, just not enough to stack them up
STL 5-star plays:Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: The Cardinals have an implied run total of 4.9 here against a pitcher that can get blown up, I like them as a tier two stack now that Marcell Ozuna is back.
Tampa Bay Rays (-215) @ Seattle Mariners (+192)
Charlie Morton is my favorite pitcher here in terms of raw points, the hard part is finding the money to pay for him, if you can get to him, do it. The Rays will get a matchup with Tommy Milone here, they are fine but I don’t see getting to a whole lot of them. Really outside of Morton this is a stay away game for me.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, not my favorite offense that’s for sure
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Charlie Morton is the best option on the slate and great at limiting runs, there’s no need to go here.
Colorado Rockies (+178) @ San Diego Padres (-194)
Chris Paddack was in my pitchers section and is one of my favorite options on this slate. The Rockies are below average on the road and they head to a huge pitchers park here, so no interest in them. The Padres have an implied run total of 5 here and I think they can get to Gonzalez. They won’t crack into my tier two stacks, but they’re knocking on the door and are worth a look for GPPs.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: There are some fine one-offs in this offense with the three 4-star plays, but Chris Paddack is one of my favorite pitching options on the slate.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Chi Chi Gonzalez just has not been good this season, I will have the Padres close to a secondary stack and certainly worth a look in GPPS.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (+160) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-174)
Kenta Maeda and Alex Young are two average pitchers that I won’t be getting to on this slate, these offenses are too good for me to have interest here. The Dodgers always go under-owned at home and with an implied run total of 4.9 I think they’ll crack my tier two stacks. The Diamondbacks are tough with a matchup against Maeda, he’s not great but he rarely gets blown up.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: There are fine one-offs here but I would rather go to the other-side of this game.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy
GPP Note: I like the Dodgers as a tier two stack and should come in pretty low owned.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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