Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg draws the red hot Mets in tonight’s matchup. Although they are red hot here, I still really like Stras in this spot. Strasburg has three starts against the Mets this season and is averaging 22.6 Draftkings points per game in those starts. The Mets strikeout at a 22.6% rate on the season to go along with Strasburg’s elite 29.5% k rate. With an implied run total of just 3.9 here, I don’t see any reason to avoid Strasburg here and I’m thinking he will be my preferred SP1 on a slate where most of the top arms draw tough matchups.
- Wade Miley – Ever think you’d be paying this price for Wade Miley? Well, the truth is he is one of the safest pitching options on the slate. He has at least 20 Draftkings points in three straight games and draws an incredible matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have an implied run total of just 4.1 runs here to go along with their 23.9% strikeout rate. Miley doesn’t have a huge strikeout rate, but 20.6% isn’t too terrible. Miley is a safe option as an expensive SP2 or a cheaper SP1 to fit in some bats.
- Brad Keller – I’ve been streaming starting pitchers against the Tigers for a while now and for the most part, it has worked very well. Since they traded Nick Castellanos the Tigers have a strong AAA lineup which is good for opposing pitchers. Keller is in good form, as he has at least 21.7 Draftkings points in four of his last five starts and has three starts against the Tigers this season in which he is averaging 17.9 Draftkings points per game. Keller is a great SP2 option and if you really want to go off the board, I don’t hate going with him as an SP1 and doing whatever you want from a bats standpoint.
- Honorable Mentions – Chris Archer draws a fairly decent matchup against a Cardinals team that has been pretty disappointing this season. In three starts against the Cardinals this season he is averaging 18.4 Draftkings points per game. Drew Smyly has pitched well since joining the Phillies and gets a great matchup against the Giants in San Francisco which is one of the best pitchers parks in all of baseball. I actually like this spot quite a bit for Smyly at his price tag, he’s scored 20+ Draftkings points in two of his last three starts.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Oakland Athletics (-163) @ Chicago White Sox (+151)
This game is the lone early game on tonight’s slate. The Oakland A’s have an implied run total of over six runs here and it feels advantageous to get a part of that offense against Ross Detwiler. Mike Fiers is going for the A’s and although I don’t think he’s a great pitcher, he can definitely take control of this White Sox bad offense. Be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Houston Astros (-241) @ Baltimore Orioles (+220)
I touched on Wade Miley in my pitcher’s section and it’s hard not to like him here. All that said, I won’t have much, if any, of the Baltimore offense. Dylan Bundy is tough to figure out, some games he will look great and some games he’ll give up four home runs. I figure this one would be closer to the ladder, the Astros are a great stack on this slate and a tier-one option for me.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: The Astros are one of the best stacks on the slate, they have an implied run total of 6.5 runs on the road in Baltimore. Baltimore is a great park for runs and the Astros being the road team guarantees ninth-inning at-bats, hard not to like the Astros here, although VERY expensive. Stacking the Astros may take the idea of using Miley or Keller as your SP1 and going down to Smyly for SP2, but certainly, an option given how good of a spot this is.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Wade Miley too much to want to go with the Orioles
New York Yankees (-142) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+131)
I’ll start by saying Gio Urshela is one heck of a heater, he hit another two home runs last night to give him five home runs in the past three days. On the opposite side of this, Aaron Judge may be broken, he went 0-5 last night and just is not right right now. The Blue Jays draw a pretty nice matchup against J.A. Happ who really hasn’t been great this year, but on a 14 game slate, I don’t see a reason to fully stack them. The Yankees a are great stack against Reid-Foley, plain and simple.
NYY 5-star plays: Gio Urshela, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Mike Ford
GPP Note: This stack is fairly easy to get to if you pay down a small amount at pitcher. Mike Ford makes this stack work at $3.4k on Draftkings to go along with a very cheap Aaron Judge, all things considered. Given the prices on these guys, I think we could see them near the top in ownership among stacks.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero, Lourdes Gurriel
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: They are priced up here, but these kids can play. At similar prices, I would rather go with the Yankees though.
Los Angeles Angels (+189) @ Boston Red Sox (-206)
The Red Sox were pretty popular last night and I would expect the same tonight with a 6.6 implied run total. Now, they didn’t exactly blow the roof off the place, but this is still a nice spot for them. Brice Johnson isn’t exactly a pitcher to fear, so I think the Angels are in play here as well.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: 4.5 implied run total and on the road in Fenway, they’re not the worst stack, but I’ll go elsewhere on this slate.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: The Red Sox are right up there with the Astros as a top stack on this slate, they’re both expensive teams, but for good reason. This is a good stack.
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Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Miami Marlins (+129)
This is likely a game that I will look to go with for pitching simply due to the ballpark because the guys on the mound really don’t jump off the page in these matchups. I love Caleb Smith, but the Braves have a phenomenal offense, the park will help suppress runs, but at his price, I’ll go elsewhere. Julio Tehran is a solid option against a Marlins offense that is working out their young pieces in guys like Lewis Brinson and Isan Diaz.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: I have a lot of respect for Caleb Smith and I don’t like stacking in this ballpark, they won’t crack my stacks pool.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Isan Diaz
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, same story here. I’m not stacking in this ballpark on a 14-game slate.
Chicago Cubs (-100) @ Cincinnati Reds (-108)
Trevor Bauer will take the mound for the Reds in his home debut as a Red. I have a lot of respect for his stuff and was wishing the Brewers would’ve found a way to grab him at the deadline. But, because of this, I’ll likely wait for a better spot to stack the Cubs, there are better spots on this slate. Yu Darvish has been better of late, so I think I’ll take a pass on offenses in this game all around.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: You don’t need to be targeting Trevor Bauer on a full slate like this.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Same story for the Reds here, this is likely a stay-away game for me
Washington Nationals (-109) @ New York Mets (+101)
I wrote up Stephen Strasburg in my pitcher’s section and even though the Mets are white on right now I will have a good amount of interest in Strasburg here. Marcus Stroman will make his home debut as a New York Met. This game is very similar to the Cubs/Reds game, both pitchers are great and will likely end up as a stay-away game in terms of the bats for me.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Stroman is a guy I don’t stack against, I’ll find elsewhere to go on this slate
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Stephen Strasburg is one of my favorite pitchers on this slate, no thanks on the Mets
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Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers
I touched on Brad Keller in my pitcher’s section and he makes for a very interesting option against a bad bad bad Tigers lineup. Edwin Jackson looks like he’s back in our lives and starting for the Tigers. I was stacking against Jackson every fifth day earlier this season and I’ll go right back to that here. The Royals are a great stack and helps save some money with their salaries.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: The prices on these guys feel too cheap given the matchup, the Royals are up there in the same tier as the Astros and Red Sox given their prices, you can get a nice pitching duo with this stack that you’re not able to with the Astros and Sox.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thank you
Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Rangers will head to Milwaukee meaning they will lose the DH for the series which really makes their lineup look pretty bad. I wanted to write up Gio Gonzalez in my pitcher’s section, but he just doesn’t have enough upside, although has pitched well this season. This is a great spot for the Brewers against Allard who had a 4 ERA in AAA this season. Make sure Yelich is in the lineup before you go too crazy here, he’s been dealing with a bit of back discomfort.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Hunter Pence
GPP Note: Some decent one-off options given the ballpark, but I’m not stacking this team.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (if he plays), Keston Hiura, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Ryan Braun, Trent Grisham, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: This is a great offense here especially if Yelich plays. They turned a corner in their last series and hopefully they can keep things going here.
Cleveland Indians (-136) @ Minnesota Twins (+125)
Shane Bieber takes the mound for the Indians and even though I won’t be pitching him, I won’t be using the Twins either. Both are very good, so this will be a wait and see spot. Drew Smeltzer takes the mound for the Twins and he’s pitched pretty well lately. That said, this Indians offense looks a heck of a lot better with Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig in it. I don’t hate the Indians as a tier-two stack.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Implied run total of 5.2 runs here and a road team, not the best ballpark for runs, but I’ll take them as a tier-two stack.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I respect Shane Bieber too much to want to go here.
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Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-135)
Chris Archer made my honorable mentions in the pitcher’s section. He doesn’t have the same amount of upside that he use to but I think he has a solid floor in this matchup. I won’t be using Hudson here, the Pirates can be pesky and really don’t strike out all that much. I don’t hate using the Pirates as a 1% owned stack here in hopes to catch lightning in a bottle.
PIT 5-star plays: Starlin Marte, Josh Bell
4-star plays: Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: I like the Pirates as a tier-two stack and think they could get to Hudson here as the road team.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: I like Archer as a pitching option, I’ll find somewhere else to go here.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Neither of these pitchers is very good, but Jalen Beeks has some upside against a bad Mariners offense. Marco Gonzales has also proven to keep offenses down this season. I normally don’t stack offenses in this ballpark and I likely won’t be going here tonight. This really just feels like a stay-away game all around for me.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, not my favorite offense that’s for sure
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I can’t really find anyone in this lineup that I want to play, not worth it for such a large slate.
Colorado Rockies (+133) @ San Diego Padres (-144)
Kyle Freeland has really free fallen this season and I could see myself getting some interest in this Padres offense. This offense has a ton of upside with Tatis, Machado, and Renfroe to name a few. The Rockies I really just stay away from outside of Coors, it’s almost as if they forget how to hit on the road. Cal Quantrill isn’t anyone to write home about, but I think he’s capable of keeping this offense down in a big ballpark.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: There are some fine one-offs in this offense with the three 4-star plays, but outside of that nothing I really love.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Kyle Freeland just has not been good this season, I will have the Padres as a secondary stack here with the Indians and Pirates.
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Arizona Diamondbacks (+176) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-192)
Walker Beuhler vs. Robbie Ray sounds like a great hammer game to watch. That said, I won’t be getting to any bats here, I respect both of these pitchers too much. Yes I like them, but both these teams have great offenses, this is likely another stay-away game for me, as crazy as it sounds.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Walker Beuhler is legit, no thank you
LAD 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Robbie Ray is legit, no thank you
Philadelphia Phillies (-112) @ San Francisco Giants (+104)
I touched on Drew Smyly in my pitcher’s section and the more I think about it, the more I think I’ll have him as my SP2. I really want to get to one of these elite offenses and going with him makes it much easier to do. Tyler Beede has been up and down as of late, but I don’t want to really go with the Phillies in this massive ballpark. This slate is loaded with good options no need to go with bats here.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I’m not stacking in this stadium
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I have more interest in Drew Smyly than I would like to admit, but no Giants for me.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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