Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Chris Sale – Sale sits with far and away the top Carnage rating and KSCORE in Nilly’s initial Report. His K rate is through the roof, especially when pitching in Fenway. I know the Angels don’t strike out a ton overall but they have been striking out more over the last few weeks.
- Domingo German – German is sitting with the 4th highest KSCORE and I would not be shocked to see it slide into the top 3. The Blue Jays have a potent offense but they are young and German is pitching at an elite level this season. The Yankees offense should be able to get him the win in this one.
- Madison Bumgarner – Nola is going to be the more popular SP from this game but I love Bumgarner pitching at home. His Carnage rating is less than ideal and his KSCORE is much lower than I would have expected it. I will be monitoring Nilly’s final report to see how it has changed. I really like Bumgarner as a GPP play at what could be decently low ownership.
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Full Count Breakdown:
New York Yankees (-195) vs Toronto Blue Jays
Domingo German vs Thomas Pannone
This game has a total set at 10.5 runs with German being a large favorite. I love the Yankees bats and expect them to stay hot here against Pannone and the Blue Jays bullpen. German is one of my favorite SPs on the slate but I will also be using some TOR bats as one-offs and maybe a hedge stack, depending on how many German shares I end up with.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at a 24% rate vs LHP
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at nearly a 25% rate vs RHP
Los Angeles Angels vs Boston Red Sox (-260)
Dillon Peters vs Chris Sale
I want all things Boston in this game. This game also has a total set at 10.5 runs with BOS being an even larger favorite than the Yankees are. Pay attention to Angel’s news as Peters could end up following an opener. The Red Sox are going to be EXTREMELY popular so I would look at ways to differentiate your stacks in this spot. Mike Trout is ALWAYS in play.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Angels are striking out at under an 18% rate vs LHP
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at a 21% rate vs LHP
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Atlanta Braves (-190) vs Miami Marlins
Dallas Keuchel vs Elieser Hernandez
The Braves are coming off of a very hot trip to MIN and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them continue to put up a ton of runs. With that said, this game has a total set at just 8.5 runs which is one of the lowest totals on the slate. We have to use a Braves stack or two in our GPPs with how they are swinging the bat, especially Freddie Freeman. Keuchel should be in line for a win but I think his lack of K upside is going to keep me off of him for GPP builds.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 22% rate vs LHP
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers
Jorge Lopez vs Matthew Boyd
Boyd is going to draw a lot of ownership and while I like it on the surface with how KC has struggled against LHP, I am very much noticing the BvP history that the Royals have here. I think I am going to end up overweight on the field in KC exposure as the history is too nice to ignore. Lopez is interesting against a Tigers team that struggles mightily against RHPs.
KC 5-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 25% rate vs LHP
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Dixon, Miguel Cabrera, Jake Rogers
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate vs RHP
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-110)
Mike Clevinger vs Kyle Gibson
This game is huge for baseball purposes. This is going to be a fight in the AL Central. Clevinger is the better DFS SP in this game but MIN just has so much power in their lineup, especially when hitting at home. A few of the Indians bats have strong numbers against Gibson in their careers. I would stack both offenses and would not hesitate to use shares of both SPs in this spot.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Roberto Perez
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Ehire Adrianza
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
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Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres (-110)
Jon Gray vs Eric Lauer
I love this game for the offense as there should be some HR’s hit here. The Padres have a few guys with really strong numbers against Gray and the Rockies have a few very dangerous hitters against LHPs. I would prefer to use Gray over Lauer for GPPs but I don’t see myself going with either of them here as I think the offenses take over.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: COL is striking out at nearly a 26% rate vs LHP
SD 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 26% rate vs RHP
Chicago Cubs (-130) vs Cincinnati Reds
Cole Hamels vs Alex Wood
Hamels is the better SP while Wood has the more intriguing match-up for DFS purposes. The Cubs have struggled mightily against LHPs on the season. I am going to be using both SPs and both offenses in my GPP builds. The game has a total set at 9.5 runs which are behind just the Yankees and Red Sox games.
CHC 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 26% rate vs LHP
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 21% rate vs LHP
Philadelphia Phillies (-110) vs San Francisco Giants
Aaron Nola vs Madison Bumgarner
I love this game for pitching, in a big ballpark. This game has by far the lowest total on the slate. I will only be using guys as one-offs as far as bats go and will be trying to go overweight on both SPs here. This has all the makings of a 3-1 or 3-2 ball game and I wouldn’t be shocked if it were in Bumgarner’s favor as I am a big fan of his when pitching at home.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at a 23% rate vs LHP
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Scooter Gennett
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
