Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Steven Matz – Matz has the top overall Carnage Rating on the day and he offers us the 2nd lowest wOBA in his match-up against the Marlins. His home numbers have been elite in 2019 and the match-up can’t get much better.
- Zac Gallen – I am very intrigued by this kid and still am in shock that the Marlins decided to deal him at the deadline. He has the third-highest KSCORE on the main slate but he does present some risk. His Carnage Rating is one of the worst on the slate so the blowup factor is there but I just don’t see it in this kids’ stuff.
- Joey Lucchesi – gets a big expected K increase based on how terrible SEA has been against LHPs. Lucchesi has the second-best initial Carnage Rating on the main slate, which is joined by the second-highest KSCORE on the main slate.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Drew Pomeranz vs Trevor Williams
Pomeranz is expected to be used as an opener in this spot as he isn’t stretched out and the Brewers view him as a reliever at this point. As of this morning, I have not figured out who is expected to follow or if this will be a true bullpen game for MIL. Trevor Williams has been absolutely dominant against the Brewers which is surprising given his inability to get LHBs out. The Brewers should be loaded with them in the lineup today. I will be using both he and the Brewers in my GPP builds.
MIL 5-Star Plays: Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal
4-Star Plays: Trent Grisham, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at over a 25% rate vs RHP
PIT 5-Star Plays: Starling Marte
4-Star Plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 24% rate vs LHP
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
James Paxton vs John Means
Paxton is in an intriguing spot due to the strikeout rate of the Orioles and the fact that he had success against them to begin the season. He is coming off of a strong start against the Red Sox as well. The Orioles pitching staff just continues to give up HRs at a ridiculous rate, especially to the Yankees. Means is coming off of the IL to make this start and could be greeted very rudely. The Yankees are going to be a fun team to stack today.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at a 24% rate vs LHP
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 27% rate vs LHP
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
Glenn Sparkman vs Eduardo Rodriguez
The Red Sox are huge favorites here in a game with a 10.5 run total. I want to get exposure to the Red Sox lineup, up and down. Rodriguez is also in a great spot as KC is weak overall against LHPs. He picked up 7 Ks in 5.2 innings earlier this season against KC and should get plenty of run support to pick up the W in this spot.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: KC is striking out at nearly a 25% rate vs LHP
BOS 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Jordan Yamamoto vs Steven Matz
Matz has been absolutely elite at home in 2019 as he is averaging over a K per inning while allowing an HR every 16 innings pitched. Yamamoto has been really strong overall but has struggled recently. His K ability has stayed strong even while he is giving up hits and runs. I think he is in play as a GPP option while Matz fits pretty well as a cash game option in this spot.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 22% rate vs LHP
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers
Ivan Nova vs Tyler Alexander
Nova made a start against DET earlier this season and gave up 6 runs on 11 hits in 6.1 innings. That start was 3.5 months ago and a large portion of the Tigers lineup is going to be different. With that said, I prefer their side if I had to pick bats in this game. I like Tyler Alexander’s K ability when matched with the White Sox’s K rate against LHP this season. Alexander did face the White Sox earlier and gave up 2 Solo HRs in 5 innings with 4 Ks.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: White Sox are striking out at a 25% rate vs LHP
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Dixon, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate vs RHP
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians – Game 1
Ariel Jurado vs Zach Plesac
This game could see some power happen as a handful of players in this game have been swinging hot bats over the last 7 days. Normally these SPs are attackable with RHBs but previous numbers against the roster’s plus which guys are swinging hot bats bring the LHBs into play here. This could be a spot for both Puig and Reyes to bust out after their trade to the Indians.
TEX 5-star plays: Rougned Odor, Danny Santana
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP
CLE 5-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians – Game 2
Lance Lynn vs Tyler Clippard
Looks like a bullpen game for the Indians in game 2 of the doubleheader. Lynn has impressive career numbers against Cleveland and after Jurado shut them down in game 1, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him put up an impressive performance. Pay attention to the lineups as guys could be resting in Game 2.
TEX 5-star plays: Rougned Odor, Danny Santana
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
Wilmer Font vs Brendan McKay
This game doesn’t have a line or run total yet but I have to imagine the total is going to be higher. I like both offenses in this game as there should be plenty of baserunners. I think McKay has future upside, I just don’t think this is the match-up for him as he has struggled against RHBs so far.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at a 24% rate vs LHP
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Kevin Kiermaier, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: TB is striking out at just over a 23% rate vs RHP
Max Fried vs Martin Perez
My initial thoughts on this game are stack away and watch the offenses light up the scoreboard. The game opened with a run total set at 10 and it would not shock me to see it climb to 10.5/11 by first pitch. The Twins are absolutely destroying LHP this season as they have a cumulative ISO of .235 as a team. Atlanta just knocked around Berrios on Tuesday night so they will be riding a high coming into this spot and they have a few guys that destroy LHP themselves.
ATL 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at under a 24% rate vs LHP
MIN 5-star plays: Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at under a 20% rate vs LHP
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Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros
Peter Lambert vs Gerrit Cole
Another game in which I want all of one side. The Astros bats should continue to stay hot here as they face a guy they got for 2 HRs in 5 innings earlier this season. Cole has elite strikeout ability and that goes up when he is at home. Arenado is the only guy that worries me because he’s had ridiculous success against Cole in his career. Stack the Astros up and down, back and forth and collect money on Wednesday night!
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: COL is striking out at nearly a 24% rate vs RHP
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, George Springer
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just a 19% rate vs RHP
Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs
Homer Bailey vs Jose Quintana
This game doesn’t have a total yet so that tells me they are waiting on wind information. The wind is going to play a huge part here as the offenses can be extremely dangerous or they can be neutralized based on the wind direction. I would only have interest in the SPs if the wind is blowing in as I wouldn’t want them even if there were no wind in this spot. The A’s just knocked around an LHP (Lester) on Tuesday night and that makes them an interesting stack against another LHP. Cubs bats are always on my stack list when they face an RHP as they have a TON of power.
OAK 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Olson
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just an 18% rate vs LHP
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 24% rate vs RHP
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-140)
Jason Vargas vs Zac Gallen
I am a big fan of Gallen’s ability while I very much think that Vargas is a bad pitcher at this point in his career. I know that Vargas has surprised this season but at some point, he is going to get hit by regression. Gallen was really strong for the Marlins leading up to a very surprising trade. He has been slightly reversed splits so far at the MLB level and while that could be dangerous in this spot against some powerful RHBs, I want to use him as a GPP option. The game does have a total at 9.5 with ARI being a solid favorite.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just over a 23% rate vs RHP
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 21% rate vs LHP
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-140)
Jack Flaherty vs Dustin May
I really like May as a GPP pitching option. His MLB debut didn’t go very well but all of the damage done against him came from LHBs. Flaherty dominated the Dodgers earlier this season but that came at home, where his splits are completely different than his road splits this season. He has allowed 16 more baserunners on the road in 22 fewer innings pitched at this point in the season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: STL is striking out at nearly a 24% rate vs RHP
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager
GPP Note: The Dodgers are striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants
Joe Ross vs Shaun Anderson
This game has a total set at 9 runs and that surprises me given how bad the SPs have been. I understand that the park is going to limit some runs being scored but I wouldn’t be shocked if one of these two teams were part of a GPP winning lineup Wednesday night. Ross has pretty ugly splits vs LHBs so that is where I want to look for the Giants. Anderson has been pretty neutral with a lean to the power of the LHBs as well.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Matt Adams
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Scooter Gennett, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners
Joey Lucchesi vs Yusei Kikuchi
Lucchesi is in an excellent spot as the Mariners are just a bad team right now, especially against LHPs. His K rate should see a nice increase and his offense should get him some run support here. I LOVE stacking the Padres against LHPs and Kikuchi can give up runs in a hurry. He is allowing a ton of HRs as well this season.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Fernando Tatis Jr
GPP Note: SD is striking out at nearly a 26% rate vs LHP
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Domingo Santana
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at nearly a 27% rate vs LHP
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
