Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw isn’t the same SP he was a few seasons ago but he still gets it done. He has started to nibble more and more but this Cardinals team doesn’t scare me at all. Kershaw offers us the highest KSCORE from Nilly’s report.
- Anibal Sanchez – Sanchez makes this list because the Giants offense is extremely weak and he gets to face them in an extreme pitcher’s park tonight. His initial Carnage report rating is pretty high but I have a feeling that changes with the final release.
- Chase Anderson – I love Anderson as a reverse splits RHP that a lot of teams forget about apparently as I see teams with a ton of LHBs face off against him. The Pirates offense has been pretty stagnant over the last month or so and Anderson could be in for a strong outing if Counsel lets him go 6+.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Chase Anderson vs Steven Brault
The Brewers offense had some life to it last night, lead by Christian Yelich. I think that continues here as Brault is coming off of an IL stint. The Brewers roster hasn’t hit Brault all too well but they are in the middle of a playoff race and can use last night as a springboard. I am very much interested in Chase Anderson from a GPP standpoint as the Pirates offense has been pretty quiet for a while now. Pay attention to the lineup because he has extreme reverse splits and if the Pirates send out a decent number of LHBs or switch-hitters, then this could become a great spot for him.
MIL 5-Star Plays: Christian Yelich
4-Star Plays: Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 23% rate vs LHP
PIT 5-Star Plays: Starling Marte
4-Star Plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at just over a 19% rate vs RHP
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
Jonathan Holder vs Asher Wojciechowski
The Yankees will run out Holder as an opener with Cortes Jr. as the projected long reliever. The Orioles strike out a ton vs LHP but they have a few guys that are playable as one-offs or a very low owned mini-stack. The Yankees are in an interesting spot as Asher has been really strong recently but the Orioles staff is giving up HRs at a historic pace. They have also given up 2+ HRs in 10 consecutive games.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Mike Tauchman, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 27% rate vs LHP (Cortes Jr.)
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox
Jakob Junis vs Andrew Cashner
Cashner has given up 18 ERs since the Red Sox acquired him (4 starts). He is coming off of an atrocious outing against TB and this game has a total set at 10.5 runs. There is going to be offense at Fenway tonight and I want exposure to it all. Both teams are definitely stackable as Junis is very much attackable, especially by LHBs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Cam Gallagher
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
BOS 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Jackie Bradley Jr., JD Martinez
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
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Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
Jordan Yamamoto vs Zack Wheeler
Both SPs are definitely in play from this game. Wheeler is going to be a popular cash game option and I can’t argue that. He is coming off of a 7 inning, 7 strikeouts, 4 hit performance in his last start and the MIA roster haven’t hit him very well as a whole. Yamamoto has run into some struggles recently but the numbers have still been there. I do like the top of the Mets lineup as a GPP stack but Yamamoto is still going to make my SP pool for tonight.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP
NYM 5-star plays: Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Dylan Cease vs Daniel Norris
This game doesn’t excite me from any angle at all. Cease is a top tier pitching prospect but his control has been terrible and he is giving up runs, even to this Tigers team. At some point, I do think he puts a start together that impresses and it could be today, against the weak Tigers lineup. On the other side, Norris has strong starts and he has some head-scratchers as he was a former top tier pitching prospect himself. I would consider using some CWS bats looking for some HRs (Abreu, Anderson, Jimenez).
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: White Sox are striking out at a 25% rate vs LHP
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate vs RHP
Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Hector Santiago vs Drew VerHagen
Much like the first game, this one doesn’t excite me much at all. The SPs are definitely weaker than the Game 1 starters but the offenses are just not exciting at all. I definitely will be passing on this game as I find it hard to want to grab a one-off from here. Candelario and Cabrera both have 2 HRs against Santiago if you feel like you NEED some exposure to this game.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Ryan Goins
GPP Note: White Sox are striking out at a 27% rate vs RHP
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 25% rate vs LHP
Texas Rangers @ Cleveland Indians
Ariel Jurado vs Zach Plesac
This game could see some power happen as a handful of players in this game have been swinging hot bats over the last 7 days. Normally these SPs are attackable with RHBs but previous numbers against the roster’s plus which guys are swinging hot bats bring the LHBs into play here. This could be a spot for both Puig and Reyes to bust out after their trade to the Indians.
TEX 5-star plays: Rougned Odor, Danny Santana
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP
CLE 5-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
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Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
Trent Thornton vs Andrew Kittredge
Tampa Bay will follow Kittredge with Yarbrough. The Blue Jays are going to be a very popular stack as people love to stack these kids and I love to stack them against LHPs. I also think that TB is going to carry ownership and I can see why but I won’t be as high on them. Overall their lineup just doesn’t come across as dangerous but they do have a few bats that I want to make sure I get exposure to, especially from the left side of the plate.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at a 24% rate vs LHP (Yarbrough)
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Kevin Kiermaier, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: TB is striking out at just over a 23% rate vs RHP
Los Angeles Angels vs Cincinnati Reds
Jose Suarez vs Anthony DeSclafani
Both SPs in this game have pretty pronounced splits in their MLB careers. Against Suarez, we want the RHBs of Cincy as he has given up 8 HRs to them in just over 100 ABs on the season. DeSclafani has had issues with LHBs in his career plus Mike Trout is REALLY good at this baseball thing. He could get paid quite a bit of money if he continues being this good! I think a Cincinnati stack is definitely in play for GPPs and I do think that a couple of them are cash game playable.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Brian Goodwin, Matt Thaiss
GPP Note: Angels are striking out at just over a 19% rate vs RHP
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 21% rate vs LHP
Mike Foltynewicz vs Jose Berrios
Foltynewicz is giving up over 2.3 HRs/9 on the season and that is a dangerous number against a Twins team that is on pace to shatter the MLB record for HRs in a season. Neither SP has shown big splits this season and has actually been pretty equal to each side of the plate. I am definitely way more interested in the MIN side because Berrios is near elite, even against a difficult Braves lineup. The Twins continue to mash HRs and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them hit a few again tonight.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
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Colorado Rockies @ Houston Astros
German Marquez vs Zack Greinke
The Rockies have seen a TON of Greinke in their careers so we have a strong sample for BvP purposes. I think that Greinke makes an excellent GPP option while a couple of Rockies bats are GPP one-offs. From the other side, a few of the Astros have hit Marquez really hard in a small sample and he did leave his most recent start due to “full body cramping”. The Astros have been heating up from the plate and they are ALWAYS in play as a GPP stack.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: COL is striking out at nearly a 24% rate vs RHP
HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, George Springer
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just a 19% rate vs RHP
Oakland Athletics vs Chicago Cubs
Brett Anderson vs Jon Lester
This game is interesting as both SPs have strong numbers against the opposition (Lester with a larger sample size). The A’s just have not been striking out against LHPs this season so that should lower Lester’s upside but he has to be in play with the loss of the DH for the A’s lineup. The Cubs have been absolutely atrocious against LHPs all season and that is what led them to acquire Castellanos, who has been the best hitter in baseball against LHPs the last couple of seasons.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just an 18% rate vs LHP
CHC 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Javier Baez
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 26% rate vs LHP
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Jake Arrieta vs Mike Leake
This game is one that should have some offense but it’s tough to figure out from where exactly. I know the Diamondbacks have a few guys that have strong numbers against Arrieta and we know that LHBs torment him. Leake has pretty neutral splits with solid career numbers against the roster of the Phillies. I am going to stack against him but I do not feel confident in doing so. I am just doing so because of how dangerous the Phillies offense can be.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just over a 23% rate vs RHP
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: David Peralta, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Miles Mikolas vs Clayton Kershaw
This spot is all about the Dodgers for me with maybe a one-off from the Cardinals as we know that Kershaw can give up a solo HR or two in this spot. Mikolas has been absolutely dreadful on the road this season so the Dodgers are in a prime spot, especially with how he has struggled against LHBs. Stack the Dodgers multiple ways and wait to count your monies at the end of the night.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just under a 22% rate vs LHP
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: The Dodgers are striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants
Anibal Sanchez vs Conner Menez
I think that both SPs are in play here as Sanchez gets to take on a very weak lineup while Menez looked solid in his debut against the Mets. Menez did end up giving up 2 Solo HRs in his debut which is definitely worrisome as that start came in SF. I am only interested in bats from this game as one-offs for GPP builds. Rendon has been somewhat cold but has always destroyed LHPs and the same can be said for Dozier to a lesser degree.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Brian Dozier, Juan Soto
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at under a 22% rate vs LHP
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Scooter Gennett, Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners
Dinelson Lamet vs Wade LeBlanc
I really like Lamet’s ability even though he is limited to 85ish pitches per start during his return from Tommy-john surgery. Some people will see an ISO against him from RHBs that is high but they fail to see a small sample and that the only hits he is really giving up to RHBs are for extra bases. I want LHBs against him but Seattle is such a weak team overall that I will only use the guys below as one-offs in my GPP lineups. The Padres should be in a great spot but LeBlanc has really surprised this season. With that being said, I will definitely have SD stacks in my GPP lineups.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Fernando Tatis Jr.
GPP Note: SD is striking out at nearly a 26% rate vs LHP
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at over a 25% rate vs RHP
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
