Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.

Walker Buehler – I know that SD has a ton of power and they’ve been hitting recently but they strike out a TON vs RHPs and Buehler could easily go off for 9+ Ks in this game. The Padres struck out 16 times in 13 innings against Buehler last season and they hit just .098 in those 13 innings.
Aaron Nola – This feels like a no-brainer, do not try to overthink it, spot on this slate. The White Sox are just not a good team and now they lose the DH in an NL ballpark. They also lost Moncada to the IL, which weakens an already extremely weak lineup. I believe we are going to see Nola cross the 30 DK point mark in this spot and possibly approach a 70 spot on FD.
Adrian Sampson – I am sure Sampson will carry ownership on DK purely due to his price but I think there is more to it than just a price point play. The Tigers are atrocious (especially without Castellanos) and Sampson has been a lot better at home than on the road in 2019. He has given up half as many HRs at home, in 16 MORE innings. His home ERA is more than 4.5 runs better than it is on the road.

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Full Count Breakdown:

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

Gio Gonzalez vs Cole Hamels

Hamels is returning off of the IL here and he does so in a place where he is most comfortable. His ERA is nearly a run better at home while he allows hitters to hit about 30 points lower against him in Wrigley than on the road. His K/9 go up when pitching in Wrigley as well. Gio has been absolutely dominant against the roster of the Cubs. The roster has 165 PAs against Gonzalez in their careers and has amassed 45 Ks and just 23 hits (good for an average of .153).

MIL 5-Star Plays: Ryan Braun

4-Star Plays: Manny Pina, Lorenzo Cain

GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 23% rate vs LHP

CHC 5-Star Plays: NONE

4-Star Plays: Kris Bryant, Nicholas Castellanos, Javy Baez

GPP Note: Cubs strike out at over a 26% rate vs LHP

Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Baltimore Orioles

Thomas Pannone vs Dylan Bundy

This game could feature a lot of strikeouts. The Orioles are striking out at a very high rate against LHP while Dylan Bundy has had monster success against the TOR roster. With that said, I don’t see myself wanting to use either SP in this game so it comes down to stacking TOR for GPPs and using a one-off from Baltimore.

TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr

4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette

GPP Note: TOR is striking out at a 24% rate vs RHP

BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez

4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Hanser Alberto

GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 27% rate vs LHP

New York Mets (-130) @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Marcus Stroman vs Chris Archer

The Mets recently got to Archer early before he settled in. That game was in NY and this one is in Pittsburgh, where his ERA has been nearly 3 runs better on the season. I think that Archer is an excellent GPP play with how he fared against the Mets recently being a reason people will avoid him. He has been a far different pitcher at home than on the road in 2019. Stroman is making his Mets debut and could put up a decent stat line but I don’t expect him to be overly impressive against a solid Pirates lineup.

NYM 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis

GPP Note: Mets are striking out at under a 23% rate vs RHP

PIT 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds

GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate vs RHP

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Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies (-280)

Ross Detwiler vs Aaron Nola

This game is ALL Philadelphia for me today. Nola is in an absolutely dominant spot as the White Sox lost Moncada to the IL recently. The lineup for the White Sox is extremely weak outside of Abreu and a recently returned Anderson. When it comes to the bats, I want exposure to everybody that cracks the Phillies lineup here. I have 5 names included below but you could seriously add Sean Rodriguez, Cesar Hernandez, and Maikel Franco.

CHW 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: White Sox are striking out at a 27% rate vs RHP

PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura, Scott Kingery

GPP Note: PHI is striking out at a 22% rate

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – Game 1

Chris Sale vs Domingo German

This game is all about the SPs for me, even though I am not sure I want to spend on either of them. We know that both offenses can be extremely dangerous and the Red Sox have been tearing the cover off of the ball lately. Sale has been up and down much of this season but we can’t deny his massive K ability. If I had to choose a side for this game it is going to be the BOS side for bats plus Sale’s upside. With today being a doubleheader, we could see some weird lineups in this game thanks to the strength of the SPs in this game and the weakness of them in game 2.

BOS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez

GPP Note: BOS is striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP

NYY 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, DJ LeMahieu

GPP Note: Yankees are striking out at a 24% rate vs LHP

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – Game 2

Brian Johnson vs Chad Green

This game should have a TON more offense as we get an opener from the Yankees and an SP from BOS that is coming off of the IL. Both sides are most likely going to turn into a bullpen game and that benefits the Yankees. Their bullpen is a TON stronger than BOS’ even though BOS’ lineup looks more dangerous at this point.

BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi

GPP Note: BOS is striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP

NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks

4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, DJ Lemahieu, Gio Urshela

GPP Note: Yankees are striking out at a 24% rate vs RHP

Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians

Felix Pena vs Adam Plutko

Pena has had some very strong ups and very weak downs so far in 2019. I do not expect this to be a spot where he has ups as the Indians are a dangerous offense with a lot of power thanks to the trade they pulled off. I actually like LAA’s side quite a bit for GPP purposes in this one. Goodwin and Upton both have HRs against Plutko but they didn’t make my top plays list below. There is a good chance they make my Notes as a GPP dart stack with lower ownership.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun

4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Matt Thaiss

GPP Note: Angels are striking out at a 19% rate vs RHP

CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez

GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP

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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-125)

Trevor Bauer vs Dallas Keuchel

I am VERY interested in seeing how Bauer pitches with the Reds after his blowup before exiting the mound in his last start. This spot is extremely tough for him as he has dealt with HR issues and the Braves have a very dangerous lineup. The Braves have an overall team ISO of .261 over the last 7 days. Keuchel intrigues me based on the perceived softness of the Reds lineup, especially with him being elite vs LHBs (taking away Votto and Winker).

CIN 5-star plays: None

4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel

GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 21% rate vs LHP

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman

4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Ozzie Albies

GPP Note: ATL is striking out at under a 23% rate vs RHP

Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (EVEN)

Matthew Boyd vs Adrian Sampson

Sampson has dealt with an HR issue this season but they have actually been on the road more than at home. We know the Tigers lineup is EXTREMELY weak top to bottom, especially after dealing away Castellanos. Boyd’s strikeout rate goes through the roof when he pitches on the road in 2019 and add in the fact the Rangers struggle against LHP, we have a strong spot for an SP that I thought would have been traded at the deadline.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Jake Rogers

GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 27% rate vs RHP

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Danny Santana

GPP Note: TEX is striking out at over a 26% rate vs LHP

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-220)

Danny Duffy vs Kyle Gibson

With my apologies to Danny Duffy here, the Twins are in an absolute smash spot. They have destroyed LHP in 2019 to the tune of a .229 ISO and an OPS of .864. We want to check the Twins lineup to see if Buxton is back in (I like him) and to see if Cron gets activated from the IL (absolutely smashing LHPs). I do not mind Gibson but I am not in a hurry to jam him in at this point. I know the KC lineup isn’t all that worrisome but they do have a couple of guys who have solid career numbers against Gibson.

KCR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Ryan O’Hearn

GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP

MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, Mitch Garver

4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez

GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 19% rate vs LHP

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Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros (-200)

Marco Gonzales vs Aaron Sanchez

I am curious to see how Sanchez performs with the Astros. He showed glimpses of top tier performances with TOR but he could never figure out consistency or how to avoid blisters. He intrigues me for GPP purposes as I can’t trust him in cash, even against a weak Mariners lineup. The Astros bats are where it is at as they have done a TON of damage against Gonzales in their careers. Much like the Phillies and the Twins, I want exposure to everybody who cracks this starting lineup tonight.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Domingo Santana

GPP Note: SEA is striking out at a 25% rate vs RHP

HOU 5-star plays: Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman

4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer

GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just an 18% rate vs LHP

San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (-125)

Madison Bumgarner vs Jon Gray

This SP match-up should dramatically lower the ownership of Coors Field bats. COL’s offense is far more dangerous than SF’s but Bumgarner has been EXTREMELY strong against this COL roster in his/their careers. Gray has the big-time ability but he lacks consistency. I am going to look to use both SPs and only target some bats as one-offs at this point. I just can’t get behind using either team in Coors over teams like MIN, HOU or PHI.

SFG 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Scooter Gennett, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP

COL 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond

GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 26% rate vs LHP

Washington Nationals (-150) @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Stephen Strasburg vs Robbie Ray

This game is all about the SPs with the use of some bats as a one-off, GPP differentiator. Neither team strikes out a ton vs the opposing SPs hand but both SPs have strong K rates. I am actually going to lean to the side of Robbie Ray, even as the home underdog. I think ARI has some sneaky bats that could cause enough issues for Strasburg and Ray could pick up a W and K 8+ in 6 innings of work here.

WAS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Brian Dozier

GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 21% rate vs LHP

ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte

4-star plays: David Peralta, Nick Ahmed

GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP

The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Cal Quantrill vs Walker Buehler

Quantrill is in trouble in my eyes as he has been knocked around by LHBs so far in his young career. In case you haven’t noticed, the Dodgers have a TON of power from the left side of the plate. Buehler is in a prime spot against a team that strikes out a lot against RHPs in 2019. The Dodgers are going to find themselves very high on my stack list for tonight.

SDP 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Eric Hosmer

GPP Note: SD is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP

LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager

4-star plays: Will Smith, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson

GPP Note: The Dodgers are striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP

St Louis Cardinals @ Oakland Athletics (-130)

Dakota Hudson vs Mike Fiers

The Oakland bats have been swinging it well recently so we have to consider riding them in stacks and as one-offs. I like Hudson’s stuff and believe that this kid is going to be special in a couple of seasons due to his strong groundball rates and his increasing K %s. I always love using guys against Fiers but have started to view them more as one-off plays because of the flyballs. I would not blame you for stacking either side of this game as it should go pretty low owned overall.

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler

GPP Note: STL is striking out at just over a 23% rate vs RHP

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson

4-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Chris Herrmann

GPP Note: OAK is striking out under a 22% rate vs RHP

Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays (-208)

Elieser Hernandez vs Diego Castillo

I want nothing to do with the Miami side here and very little to do with the TB side. I really like Hernandez’s stuff but he has struggled with LHBs so far this season. I think you can use a Meadows or Choi as a one-off for your builds. You could probably get away with Kiermeier as a one-off as well in this spot.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP

TB 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Willy Adames, Ji-Man Choi

GPP Note: TB is striking out at under a 24% rate vs RHP

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.