Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Lance Lynn – I can’t see I would have ever thought I would even consider playing Lance Lynn at $11.7k, yet here I am. He draws an incredible matchup against the Detroit Tigers who I think are a glorified AAA team now that they don’t have Nick Castellanos. The strikeout 26.9% of the time on the season while Lynn has a 27.2% strikeout rate. The price is tough, but Lynn is the clear top pitcher on the slate, the question will come down to whether or not you can afford him.
- Wade Miley – Yet another guy that I would never have seen myself paying for at this price tag. That said, he gets an amazing matchup with a Seattle team that really does not scare me. Miley has a lower 20.5% strikeout rate on the season but that is balanced out by Seattle’s 26.4% k rate. Miley is a guy that rarely gets blown up and I think it’s pretty hard to ignore him in this spot. He’s also scoring nearly 8 more Draftkings points per game more at home than on the road this season, great spot for Miley here.
- Dustin May – May is the guy that every trade deadline seller was trying to acquire in any sort of big deal for the Dodgers. They end up keeping him and let him make his debut here. Throughout the minors this season he had a 3.38 ERA and 9.3 k/9. The Padres beat up on Kershaw a little bit last night but the strikeouts are there for this team, they are striking out at a 26.4% rate this season. Strikeouts are king when it comes to choosing a pitcher for me, so I will likely get to some Gingergaard here.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Milwaukee Brewers (+131) @ Chicago Cubs (-142)
As per usual, the Cubs host a day game on a Friday. Davies and Quintana will have the benefit of the wind blowing in here which will help suppress some of the bats in this game. This is a game where I really don’t want to stack up either side because both pitchers have had success against both teams in their careers. Be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
The Blue Jays ended up having a pretty big night last night and will look to keep things going here against Aaron Brooks and that horrid Baltimore bullpen. Brooks has given up at least five earned runs in two straight games and the Jays are cheap enough to where you could try and jam in two of the top-end pitchers if you choose to go this route. Aaron Sanchez sounded like he was close to being dealt on the deadline, but ultimately stays put in this Jays rotation. It looks like there isn’t yet a confirmation on if he or Sam Gaviglio will start, but to be honest, it doesn’t matter they’re both pretty bad.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero, Lourdes Gurriel
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: These young kids for the Jays can really swing the bats, I like them here as a cheap stack in a good spot against this bad O’s pitching staff
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: I want to like the Orioles here, but their offense just isn’t talented enough for me to have an interest.
New York Mets (-112) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+103)
The Mets are playing great baseball right now and will send Steven Matz to the hill to matchup with Trevor Williams. Many of you know I don’t love stacking in this park especially against two pitchers who have flashed moments of upside this season. Matz last pitched against the Pirates and threw a complete-game shutout against them, I think this will likely draw some attention and maybe put his ownership higher than it needs to be.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: One-offs only for me, this ballpark is great at holding down offenses
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: Matz just crushed this team last time out, but one-offs with Marte and Bell aren’t the worst options
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Chicago White Sox (+165) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-180)
Newly acquired Jason Vargas will make his team debut in a nice matchup against the White Sox. I may get to some Vargas here since he has been surprisingly good this season and the White Sox have been unsurprisingly average. As for the Phillies, I love them here against Ivan Nova. I liked them a lot yesterday and they went off for 10 runs, I’ll be going back to the well here.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Just one-offs against a pitcher that I think is better than the public gives him credit for
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery
4-star plays: JT Realmuto (DK), Corey Dickerson, Jean Segura
GPP Note: Anyone that cracks this lineup is in play for me, they are a tier-one stack given their 5.5 implied run total.
Boston Red Sox (+114) @ New York Yankees (-123)
This has pitchers dual written all over it, but being in Yankees Stadium you never know what might happen. Eduardo Rodriguez has almost turned himself into the ace of this pitching staff, yet the Yankees have an implied run total of 5.6. As for the Red Sox, they crush left-handed pitching and I think the fact that James Paxton is on the mound will draw people away from this stack.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: I think they get overlooked here and are a nice secondary stack for me, they would be higher but I do respect the talent of James Paxton.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion, DJ Lemahieu
GPP Note: So the Yankees are incredibly cheap here and will most definitely draw ownership even in a tough matchup with E-Rod. That said, I think the ownership is certainly warranted given the price tags on these guys with nearly a 6 run implied total.
Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians
Mike Clevinger will take the mound against an Angels team that really doesn’t strikeout a bunch which is one of Clevinger’s strengths. On the season the Angels are only striking out 18.5% of the time, but Clevinger will challenge that with his 37.5% k rate. As for the Indians, they will match up with Dillon Peters here. They will be a secondary stack considering the fact that the wind will be heavily blowing in and I don’t think Peters is the gas can that many people think he is.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Just one-offs against a very very good pitcher
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes, Yasiel Puig
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: They will be secondary stack for me, I do like what they did by getting Reyes and Puig in there (make sure Puig is in the lineup with a suspension looming.)
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Cincinnati Reds (+132) @ Atlanta Braves (-143)
Both of these pitchers have been injured all throughout the season which makes them hard to trust here in good hitting conditions because of the heat. The Reds lineup go much weaker with the departure of Puig and Gennet, so if I’m picking one it will be Kevin Gausman. The Braves make for a fine stack and have mashed lefties all season, but I think there are better stacks on this slate. Secondary stack for me.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Just one-offs against Gausman, this Reds offense is tough to like right now
ATL 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Austin Riley
GPP Note: This lineup is full of lefty mashers but I do respect the talent of Alex Wood, secondary stack for me on the Braves.
Detroit Tigers (+208) @ Texas Rangers (-228)
I wrote-up Lance Lynn in my pitcher’s column and really do think he is the top raw option on the slate, it’s just the price that is hard to pay for. The Rangers have a massive implied run total of 6.4 here, putting them in the same tier as the Phillies for me. Tyler Anderson isn’t a pitcher that I’m afraid of and neither is this Tigers bullpen.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: The Tigers have the worst lineup in baseball, no thank you.
TEX 5-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Danny Santana, Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Elvis Andrus, Willie Calhoun, Rougned Odor
GPP Note: This is a great spot for the Rangers and as I said they are in that tier one with the Phillies here. I will say one thing, Jeff Mathis is not good, I don’t care what his price is I’m leaving him off my stack.
I really want to like Martin Perez here, but he has just burned me too many times in a very similar spot. He’s better at home, but for a similar price, I think going with Matz or Dustin May is just a better idea. The Twins have a massive implied run total here and it’s hard to argue against a guy like Glenn Sparkman. Given the prices on these Twins bats, I do like the Phillies or Rangers a bit more but a 6.8 implied run total is tough to ignore.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: There are some really nice one-off options here and I don’t hate a small 3-man stack of the guys listed above.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver (DK), Byron Buxton
GPP Note: They may be pretty popular so don’t be afraid to wrap it with Buxton to get some salary savings and differentiate yourself from the other Twins stacks.
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Seattle Mariners (+250) @ Houston Astros (-276)
Wade Miley made my pitchers column as well, and as a massive favorite here it’s hard to not like him. Kikuchi is a guy that I love stacking against because he gives up a ton of walks and a ton of home runs. The Astros are one, if not, my favorite stack on the slate. Short and simple on this game.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Wade Miley is a great play on this slate and I won’t be attacking him with any of these Mariners bats
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I love the Astros here, anyone that cracks the lineup will be in my player pool. They are probably my #1 stack of the slate.
San Francisco Giants (-108) @ Colorado Rockies (+100)
Ohhhh Coors field how I’ve missed you…this game has a total near 13 between the two teams which is easily the highest on the slate. These pitchers are not good and there will be a good amount of runs scored here (I think). The Rockies are expensive, but for good reason. The Giants have some value bats that make this stack easier to work with, I much prefer the Giants side of this one, plus they’re guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats.
SFG 5-star plays: Scooter Gennett, Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Pablo Sandoval, Kevin Pillar
GPP Note: A full stack of the Giants is much easier to work with because of the savings with Gennett and Belt, but both sides are firmly in play here.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: David Dahl, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: They are right there with the Astros and Phillies as a top stack, but affording them will not be easy. If you want to pair them with a duo of May and Matz you can probably make it work. But if you want to get some expensive pitching, good luck to ya.
Washington Nationals (+133) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Robbie Ray makes it through the deadline and sticks with the Dbacks and will get a matchup with a very boom or bust team in the Nationals here. Ray has an elite 31.6% k rate on the season and I really don’t think the price is awful on him. He makes for an elite GPP play on this slate. Joe Ross is what some people would call a gas can, and I am some people. The Dbacks aren’t too expensive and will likely get overlooked, they make a lot of sense for GPPs.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, there are about seven teams I would rather stack on this slate
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
4-star plays: Jake Lamb, Adam Jones
GPP Note: They’re in the same tier as the Yankees and Twins for me. They likely get overlooked but are capable of putting up runs in bunches.
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
San Diego Padres (+159) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-173)
Dustin May is probably my favorite mid-range play on the slate due to the high k percentage of the Padres. May has major league ready stuff and I’m really excited to see him pitch here. As for the offenses, I won’t be going with the Padres, but the Dodgers are a secondary stack as well. Eric Lauer has actually pitched well against them this season, but I’m a firm believer that the Dodgers have one of the best offenses in all of baseball.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: There’s a lot of good plays on this slate, you don’t need to go here.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, AJ Pollock, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Tyler White
GPP Note: They’re in the same tier as the Dbacks and Twins, which is a pretty loaded tier with a lot of teams in it. But it’s a big slate with a lot of offenses in good spots. I like the Dodgers here who usually get overlooked at home.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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