Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg gets one of the better pitching matchups you could as for in the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have an implied run total of just 3.1 runs here and are striking out at a 26.8% rate on the season. Strikeouts are king when it comes to selecting pitching, so this is something we want to target. Strasburg has a 28.8% k rate on the season so there are certainly going to be some strikeouts here if Stras is his usual self. He’s expensive, but in three starts against the Marlins this season, he is averaging 34 Draftkings points per game, you’ll take that to the bank all day long.
- Dylan Bundy – Not often do I write up a Baltimore pitcher, but I think Bundy is in a nice spot here. The Royals have an implied total of 4.3 runs here which is something I can deal with at Bundy’s price tag. Their lineup has also gotten watered down as the season has gone on with Mondesi hitting the IL and the call-ups of you players who like to strike out. Bundy has started one game against them this season and scored 23.6 Draftkings points. At his price he makes a lot of sense as an SP2, or a VERY cheap SP1 for tournaments.
- Michael Wacha – So, there really isn’t a really cheap option that I like on this slate and many of you know I like to provide an option in all price ranges. That said, I think Wacha will end up being the chalky spend-down option simply due to his price and because the guys surrounding him are openers. The Reds only have an implied run total of 4.1 which is nice for Wacha, but there really isn’t any kind of ceiling or solid floor here with him. If you really want to stack up that Colorado game you’ll need a cheap option, however, so here it is, do what you will with it.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Oakland Athletics (+177) @ New York Yankees (-193)
This matchup features Domingo German against Homer Bailey in Yankee Stadium. Many of you know that I love using Homer Bailey as a pitcher because he’s not the gas can that everyone thinks he is, but I won’t be going there in a small ballpark. You can get to German if you would like, but these A’s can swing the bats as well. I think I’ll be sticking to hitters in this game. The Yankees have an implied run total of 6.5 while the A’s are at 4.6.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Although I don’t think I’ll get too much German, that’s more of a price thing. I’m not going wild with the A’s but they do have a lot of home run potential here.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Anyone who cracks the lineup is in play for me, they are up there with the Astros as the top stack on the slate.
Cincinnati Reds (+120) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-129)
This is another game with a pretty good pitching matchup. Dakota Hudson has really come on as of late, however, this price is just too high for me against a Reds team that has proven to be dangerous with Aquino in the middle of that lineup. Trevor Bauer will draw the start for the Reds and has been all over the map since coming over from the Indians. In his last four starts, he has two negative fantasy outings and two games with at least 30 Draftkings points. I like his talent, so I’ll stay away from the Cards here and likely get to him as a GPP pitcher.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Hudson has looked too good lately for me to want to stack, but there are some serious power options on this team.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, you don’t need to go crazy against Trevor Bauer.
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Milwaukee Brewers (+139) @ Chicago Cubs (-151)
The Brewers played like their season was over yesterday and it was not a pretty sight as a Brewers fan. They come back today with Zach Davies on the mound who started the year great but has since fallen off, he’s not the worst punt SP2 option if you want to stack up one of those expensive teams. The Cubs will go with Cole Hamels who has been pretty bad lately, he has given up 17 runs over his last four games and the Brewers offense is not one I want to target. It looks like the wind will be blowing in from right here so that helps these pitchers out.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Manny Pina (DK)
GPP Note: Without Hiura and possibly Moose, this lineup looks very watered down, but there are still some bats that can pack a punch here.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Nick Castellanos, Javier Baez
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: The Cubs bats looked good yesterday, I don’t mind them as a secondary stack on this slate.
Houston Astros (-173) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+153)
The Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound who will likely be one of my top pitching options on the slate simply due to his price and what he allows you to do with your bats. The Jays are throwing Clay Bucholz out there and making the Astros one of the top stacks on the slate with a 6.3 implied run total. Bucholz has a 5.83 era on the season, the Astros are expensive but they’re right up there with the Yankees on the early slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: They’re expensive but if you can get to them, do it.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero, Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: I will have a lot of Valdez here and if you are the same don’t be afraid to get a hedge stack or two.
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New York Mets (-116) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+108)
This game features a matchup of southpaw’s, Steven Matz against the ex-Met, Jason Vargas. Matz has been very solid this season and makes some sense as a pitching option on the early slate. However, he has not pitched well against the Phillies, averaging -0.4 Draftkings points per game in 3 starts against them. Jason Vargas gets a revenge game against the Mets here but really has not been great since coming over to the Phillies. I don’t hate getting to a Mets stack here.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Ahmed Rosario, Wilson Ramos, JD Davis
GPP Note: I would out the Mets right there with the Cubs as a nice secondary stack if you want to pay up for pitching.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I like getting a hedge stack here if you’re getting to a lot of Matz since he’s been pretty bad against them, but otherwise I’m not going too crazy here.
Minnesota Twins (-131) @ Detroit Tigers (+121)
Another game that features a southpaw matchup, this one between Martin Perez and Matt Boyd. Boyd has been the lone bright spot for the Tigers this season but draws an incredibly difficult matchup in the Twins. I will likely stay away from him if you’re playing any decent-sized slate. Martin Perez makes sense as a pitching option against this brutal Tigers team if you need a cheaper pitching option.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: I don’t want to go wild against Matt Boyd, but this is one of the better offenses in baseball.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: As usual, no interest in Tigers bats.
Cleveland Indians (+110) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-119)
Zach Plesac feels a bit overpriced here, but if playing this afternoon slate he’s in play as a pitching option just because of the bare amount of them. The Rays have an implied run total of 4.2 runs here but are still not an offense I love playing pitchers against, so don’t go too crazy here. The Rays will open with Diego Castillo, but send Jalen Beeks in as the long reliever. Beeks isn’t someone I’ll get to against this solid hitting Indians team.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: The Indians are a nice secondary stack given the value that they provide.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: I don’t really love Plesac here so if you want to get to some Rays bats I will not talk you off of it.
Miami Marlins (+263) @ Washington Nationals (-291)
I wrote up Stephen Strasburg as one of the top pitching options on the main slate and will be getting to him a lot in this matchup regardless of the expensive price tag. The Marlins will send Pablo Lopez to the mound, who has actually been pretty good as of late. Over his past ten games, he is averaging 13.8 Draftkings points per game, but that could change here against a hot Nats team. I don’t mind getting to the Nationals as a secondary stack on this slate.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Strasburg is my favorite pitching option on the slate, no thank you.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Similar to yesterday, I can see getting to the Nats here. They have an implied run total of 5.5 runs against Pablo Lopez with a bad bullpen behind him.
Baltimore Orioles (+121) @ Kansas City Royals (+113)
You don’t often see the Orioles favored in a game, yet here we are. I wrote up Dylan Bundy in my pitcher’s section and do think he is a very nice mid-range option on this slate. The Royals are sending Jorge Lopez to the mound, who is not great, to say the least. He has a 6.56 era on the season and the Royals have a bullpen almost as bad as the Orioles, I normally don’t get to the O’s as a stack, but you can make a nice case for them here in GPPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Hanser Alberto
GPP Note: An implied run total of 4.8 runs here, if you’re multi-entering a GPP, I would get some exposure.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Bundy is susceptible to the home run ball so I don’t mind getting some one-offs here, but I think I’ll get to some Bundy on this slate.
Cincinnati Reds (-112) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+103)
This is the second half of the double-header for these two teams in what could be a rough day for the Cardinals. They get matchups with Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray which is never ideal for offense, but it is what it is. The Cardinals will throw Michael Wacha in this game and I painfully wrote him up in my pitcher’s section as a cheap value SP2 option if you really need to get there. I doubt I get to him with any strong ownership at all, but it’s worth noting. I won’t be stacking up the Cards as Gray has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half of the season, but you can make a case for getting to the Reds in a nice matchup with Michael Wacha.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel, Josh VanMeter
GPP Note: Michael Wacha is not what he use to be, I don’t hate a stack against him but the Reds won’t make my secondary stack list. They are more of a GPP stack.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, you don’t need to go crazy against Sonny Gray.
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Chicago White Sox (+175) @ Atlanta Braves (-190)
I had a ton of Max Fried yesterday and it paid off big time with an 11 strikeout game from him. The Braves will throw Dallas Keuchel out there today, who I admit has been impressive over his past few starts. You can certainly get to him here at a sub $10k price tag. Reynaldo Lopez is a guy that I normally get to for GPPs because he has such a high ceiling at a low price tag. That said, I’m not going to get to him against this Braves offense, they make for a nice secondary stack with an implied run total of 5.7.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Dallas Keuchel seems to have found a groove, you don’t need the White Sox today.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Matt Joyce
GPP Note: You can get to the Braves here if you would like, they have an implied total of near six and are capable of putting up runs in a hurry.
Seattle Mariners (+125) @ Texas Rangers (-145)
Brock Burke takes the mound here for the Rangers and I want to get some exposure here but the price tag feels weird. He has at least 17 Draftkings points in his two starts this season. If you get to him, I will not talk you off him and the more I think about it the more I’ll get him as an SP2. Tommy Milone will be the long reliever for the Mariners and has pitched well against the Rangers this season. The Rangers struggle with left-handed pitchers, so if you want to get there in a GPP, I don’t hate it.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, JP Crawford, Austin Nola
GPP Note: I’ll likely get some Brock Burke here, but with an implied run total near 5, I won’t talk you off of any Mariners bats.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Shin-soo Choo
GPP Note: Tommy Milone is a guy I rarely stack against and the Rangers are just too priced up for their talent level.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-121) @ Colorado Rockies (+112)
This has been a high scoring series, as one would expect in Coors, but this game is interesting with a matchup between Musgrove and Melville. Musgrove has been a guy I’ve gotten two as a punt SP2 lately and has actually worked for the better, however you just can’t get there and feel good about it in this matchup. Melville has pitched very well in his first two starts, sporting a 0.75 era and at least 18.5 Draftkings points in both starts. I was close to writing him up, but the Pirates really don’t strike out and have been smoking the ball in this ballpark, so he’s a fade for me.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: The Pirates will yet again be a top stack on this slate, they have an implied run total of 7.4 and will likely give Melville a rude awakening.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: The Rockies are very frustrating because they are in a great spot but can let you down, however, Joe Musgrove is a nice medicine for this. The Rockies are right there with the Pirates as a top stacking option if you can find the salary.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-137) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+126)
Today is Kershaw day for the Dodgers, he will take the mound and be the highest-priced pitcher on the slate. I won’t talk you off of him because he has been lights out lately, but I would rather just take the discount with Strasburg. Kershaw is an elite GPP pivot, however. Robbie Ray will get the start for the Dbacks and has pitched well against the Dodgers this season averaging 21 Draftkings points per game over four starts.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, Ray has treated the Dodgers poorly, but is prone to giving up big innings.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Don’t play bats against Kershaw.
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San Diego Padres (-106) @ San Francisco Giants (-102)
These are two pitchers that I was very close to writing up in my pitcher’s section, so if you get to either of them I am completely okay with it. Logan Webb came over from the Padres at the deadline and was one of their top pitching prospects. The Padres have an implied run total of 4.1 here in a massive ballpark, he makes some sense as a mid-range SP2. Joey Lucchesi is a little too expensive for my taste, but has a 23.1% strikeout rate on the season and gets a Giants team that has an implied run total of just 4 runs here.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Similar to yesterday, this game is strictly pitching for me. Logan Webb makes a lot of sense against this team in a #RevengeGame.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Joey Lucchesi isn’t a guy I stack against and I’ll likely get to him in GPPs at the very least.
Boston Red Sox (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-110)
I was all over the Red Sox last night and it ended up paying off pretty nicely as Mookie Betts went for two home runs and 33 Draftkings points. Tonight the Red Sox will see Dillon Peters on the mound who is not someone that I am very afraid of. I think you can go right back to the well with these Red Sox bats. Brian Johnson will be the long reliever after Andrew Cashner opens this game, I won’t have interest in either of them and I don’t think you should either. The Angels make for a nice secondary stack with the Braves and Orioles.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Love the Red Sox here, they are a tier-one stack again for me on this slate.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: The Angels are a tier-two stack for me and have an implied run total of 5.4. This feels like a very similar game to yesterday’s in which the game ended 7-6.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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