Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Madison Bumgarner – I’m going to go right back to the well here with the Giants pitching staff after Dereck Rodriguez dudded last night, although not surprising. Bumgarner is obviously a much better pitcher than Rodriguez and gets the same plus matchup. The Padres have an implied run total of just 3.7 here and are striking out at a 26% rate on the season. Mad Bum is striking opposing batters out at a 24.5% rate this year, hard not to like him here at a reasonable price tag.
- Max Fried – As much as I like Fried as a pitcher I really haven’t gotten to him a whole lot this season. However, he gets a plus matchup with the Chicago White Sox who have an implied run total of 3.9 here. Fried has a very nice strikeout rate of 23.7% on the season to go along with the Sox k rate of 25.7%. $7.5k just feels too cheap for a pitcher that I really like and in a great matchup, I will have a lot of Fried as an SP2 at the very least.
- Elieser Hernandez – As many of you know, I like to provide a pitcher in each tier on this list, so Hernandez is your guy here tonight. He does draw a pretty tough matchup against the Nationals who have been scorching the ball lately. That said, Hernandez has also pitched very well too. He has given up no more than two runs in three of his last four starts and has a k rate of 24.1% on the year. The Nats are pretty league average at 21% on the season, but at his price he doesn’t need to do a whole lot to pay off salary, I like him a lot as a punt SP2.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Milwaukee Brewers (+126) @ Chicago Cubs (-137)
As usual, the Cubs play a day game at home on this fine Friday afternoon. We will see a matchup between Chase Anderson and Jose Quintana here. Both pitchers have been pretty good as of late other than Anderson’s blow-up against the Nationals, but I tend to leave out outliers. Before I go any further let me just say that Ryan Braun destroys lefties in Wrigley Field. Against Quintana in his career, he is 11-41 with a massive 5 home runs. It looks like the wind will be blowing in from left here anywhere between 5-10 mph. Due to the pricing being much different than the main slate I’ll let the coaches break this one down for you in slack. Also, be sure to check out our Coaches Notes/Player Picks on this game for a more in-depth look on player analysis since the pricing for a showdown slate is much different than the full slate.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Miami Marlins (+217) @ Washington Nationals (-238)
I wrote up Elieser Hernandez as part of my pitcher’s section and think you can get to him here as a cheap SP2 even though the Nats are huge favorites. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Nats here and makes sense as a mid-range option coming off of a massive game against the Cubs. If I were to pick a stack here it would clearly be the Nats just because of the talent on this team and the way they have been swinging the bats, but I will have some Hernandez as well.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Jorge Alfaro
GPP Note: I just rarely get to this Marlins team outside of value plays
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Trea Turner
GPP Note: I’ll have a decent amount of Hernandez here so I won’t go wild on the Nats, more likely to be more of a hedge stack for me.
Oakland Athletics (+128) @ New York Yankees (-138)
This game features two pitchers who are well past their prime in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Both teams have implied run totals of over 5 here and the Yankees are over 6. The Yankees are the better stack against Anderson, due to the fact that they crush left-handed pitching, but the A’s are the cheaper stack and easier to make work with the amount of value that they have.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: A team with a lot of power that gets untapped due to their home ballpark goes on the road to a hitter-friendly park? I like them as a secondary stack here.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Anyone who cracks the lineup is in play for me, they are a top stack on this slate.
New York Mets (+123) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-134)
This is the opposite of the last game, here we have two pitchers that are having great seasons and have great talent in this league. Nola has been good against the Mets this season, averaging over 21 Draftkings points per game in three starts while Wheeler is doing just about the same, 21 Draftkings points per game in four starts. This is a game where I’ll mostly stay away from hitters and use these pitchers in GPPs at the very least.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: I have too much respect for Nola to want to go with a stack here.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, similar to Nola, I don’t want to stack against Wheeler.
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Houston Astros (-197) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+181)
Wade Miley will draw the start for the Astros and is a guy I don’t want to target with opposing offenses because he just does not get blown up. His price is a little too high for me to want to use as a pitching option but makes some sense as a contrarian cash option. The Astros will face Trent Thornton and have an implied run total of over 6 runs here, they are right up there with the Yankees as a top stack on this slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: They’re expensive but if you can get to them, do it. They make for a nice pivot off of Coors.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: I don’t stack against Wade Miley, and I won’t start now, just one-offs.
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Cleveland Indians @ Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays draw an incredibly difficult matchup here against Shane Bieber who has had a Cy Young worthy season. I won’t be getting to the Rays here in any capacity. Bieber makes sense if you really want to pay up at pitching, he’s been so consistently good to the point where it’s hard not to like him. Austin Pruitt is coming off a start where he gave up six runs to the Orioles, the Indians make sense as a secondary stack here.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: The Indians are a nice secondary stack given the value that they provide.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Why play bats against Bieber?
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
The Twins draw an elite matchup against Edwin Jackson who has a 8.70 era on the season and just gave up six runs to this Twins team in his last start, I love the Twins here. Kyle Gibson draws the start for the Twins and just pitched a 17.4 Draftking point game which is a little below average for a matchup against the Tigers. Given the matchup, I think you can get to Gibson here as an expensive SP2 or a cheap SP1.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler (if in the lineup), Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez, Whoever catches
GPP Note: They are a top stack on this slate, whoever cracks the lineup is in play against Edwin Jackson.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Kyle Gibson makes sense as a pitching option, you don’t need to go with these bats on a close to full slate.
Chicago White Sox (+182) @ Atlanta Braves (-199)
I wrote-up Max Fried in my pitcher’s section and is one of my favorite mid-range pitching options on the slate, he is simply too cheap for the matchup. Ivan Nova has surprisingly pitched well since the all-star break which makes me semi-nervous to stack up this Braves team. However, their offense is elite and I will not talk you off of it.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have too much Fried to have interest in the Sox here.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies.
GPP Note: Mini-stacks and one-offs are my preferred offense on this Braves team, although they do have an implied run total of over 5 here.
Seattle Mariners (+115) @ Texas Rangers (-124)
I was very close to writing up Kolby Allard here, as he has pitched very well for the Rangers since joining the team. This is a great matchup for him, although the Mariners have started to swing the bats better as of late. I like Allard as an SP2 option nonetheless. Marco Gonzales is just not a guy I normally get to as far as pitchers go, the upside isn’t there for me even though the Rangers strikeout a bunch.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, JP Crawford, Austin Nola
GPP Note: One-offs and mini-stacks here, the Mariners have some guys that can do damage against lefty pitchers.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Shin-soo Choo
GPP Note: Even though I won’t be getting too much Marco Gonzales here, I don’t think I’ll get a ton of Rangers bats, they’re just too priced up for their talent level.
Cincinnati Reds (+102) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-110)
This is another game with a pretty good pitching matchup. Dakota Hudson has really come on as of late, however, this price is just too high for me against a Reds team that has proven to be dangerous with Aquino in the middle of that lineup. Trevor Bauer will draw the start for the Reds and has been all over the map since coming over from the Indians. In his last four starts, he has two negative fantasy outings and two games with at least 30 Draftkings points. I like his talent, so I’ll stay away from the Cards here and likely get to him as a GPP pitcher.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Hudson has looked too good lately for me to want to stack, but there is some serious power options on this team.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, you don’t need to go crazy against Trevor Bauer.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals
Talk about a barn burner, the O’s and Royals! Haha, all kidding aside, we get a matchup between Skoglund and a pitcher to be named tomorrow. If this ends up being a bullpen game for the O’s I will definitely get some Royals bats here, as the O’s have the worst bullpen in the league. The Royals bullpen isn’t much better, but I just like the talent on the Royals more and would make for a nice GPP stack.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Just power one-offs, I don’t love the prices on this team.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Alex Gordon, Ryan O’Hearn
GPP Note: Keep an eye out on the starting pitcher for the Orioles, it’s not going to be a great option no matter who they pick, but if it’s a full bullpen game I like the Royals a good deal here as a GPP stack at the very least.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) @ Colorado Rockies (-119)
I was all over the Pirates last night and they put up 11 runs, not like that was a bold call or anything but I did like them more than the Rockies offense. We get yet another laughable pitching matchup in Coors field, meaning both of these teams are elite stacks and are right up there with the Twins and Yankees as tier one stacks on this slate. They will be expensive and they won’t be sneaky, but it’s Coors what can you expect?
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Top stack on the slate for me, but finding the salary may be difficult for a full-stack.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Sam Hilliard
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: I like the Pirates slightly more, but I will not talk anyone off of playing the Rockies here.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-126) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+116)
Tony Gonsolin and Zac Gallen will draw the starts here. Gallen is a very talented young pitcher but draws an incredibly difficult matchup against a Dodgers team that can crush right-handed pitching. The price is simply too high on him for me to have interest. The Dbacks are a fine GPP stack, but I would rather get to a team like the Royals than target Gonsolin here.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Justin Turner, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: There aren’t many nights where I don’t like the Dodgers bats, they are elite GPP plays here as I think they go under-owned against a talented pitcher in Gallen.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: I’m leaning just one-offs here, I like the upside of some other stacks for GPPs more than this one.
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Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Los Angeles Angels (+115)
Yet another game with pretty average pitching options. Eovaldi has been pretty terrible this season and so has Suarez, I will have more interest in these offenses than in the pitchers. My guess is that the Sox go under-owned here with there being a Coors game and this game being in LA, but they are an elite stack against a pitcher that has been brutal lately. The Angels are in that same tier as the Royals for me, they have upside, but not a team I’m prioritizing.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Love the Red Sox here, they are very close to a tier-one stack for me, the only thing keeping them down is their prices.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: Although Eovaldi has been bad, I like a mini-stack of the OF’s more than a full-stack.
San Diego Padres (+109) @ San Francisco Giants (-117)
This is a game similar to the Mets and Phillies where I will just be getting to the pitchers here. Madison Bumgarner against Dinelson Lamet is a pretty rock solid matchup in a massive pitchers park. I wrote up Bumgarner as one of my favorite pitchers on the slate in hopes that he takes advantage of this high strikeout spot against the Padres. Lamet feels a bit overpriced, that said we’ve seen the upside just a few starts ago when he went out and got 40 Draftkings points.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m expecting to get quite a bit of Bumgarner here, so no.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Dinelson Lamet is a guy that I’m not going to stack against especially in a massive ballpark with a below-average offense.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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