Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Lance Lynn – After being priced at nearly $12k on Draftkings, Lynn has come back down to earth to where his price has dropped back down to a reasonable price. I’m going to take advantage of this price tag given the matchup with the Seattle Mariners. They have an implied run total of 4.6 runs here which is a bit larger than I thought it might be. The Mariners’ offense is not one that scares me, they have a strikeout rate of 25.5% on the season to go along with Lynn’s 27.4% k rate. Not only that, but he has started three games against the Mariners this season, in those three games he is averaging 28.9 Draftkings points per game, I like him a lot here.
- Alex Wood – I was all over Anthony DeSclafani last night and I’ll go right back to the well here with Alex Wood against this Marlins team in Miami. DeSclafani put up a massive 33 point Draftkings night last night and the Marlins have an implied run total of just 3.9 here against Wood. The Marlins have a 24.4% k rate on the season to go along with Wood’s 17.1% strikeout rate, which is not ideal. Wood has really not pitched well this season, but I see this as a great bounce-back opportunity for him against a strikeout heavy team in a big ballpark, I like him as an SP2.
- Dereck Rodriguez – As many of you know, I like to provide a pitcher in each tier on this list, so Rodriguez is your cheap option of the day. Over his past four games, he has either gone over 22 Draftkings points or gone negative, so he’s a bit boom or bust. He gets a nice matchup with the Padres who are without Tatis Jr. and Reyes now, making their lineup much weaker. They have an implied run total of 4.3 here and are in San Francisco, one of the best pitching parks in all of baseball. The Padres strike out at a 26.1% rate on the season to go along with Rodriguez’s k rate of 14.4% which is quite low, but he really doesn’t all that many points to pay off his price tag. I don’t hate getting to him as a punt SP2.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Cleveland Indians (-235) @ Detroit Tigers (+214)
So this is one of the better pitching spots on the day for Mr. Mike Clevinger. He gets a matchup with a Tigers team that is, as I like to call them, a AAA offense. They have an implied run total of just 3.3 here and are in for a lot of strikeouts. Clevinger has a strikeout rate of 36.2% to go along with the Tigers 27% k rate against righties. If you’re playing the day slate, play Clevinger. The Indians are also a great stack against Daniel Norris who has a 4.69 era and a 38% hard contact percentage on the season.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: The Indians are an elite stack on the early slate with an implied run total of 5.3 runs against Daniel Norris and a weak Tigers bullpen.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just play Clevinger
Oakland Athletics (-191) @ Kansas City Royals (+176)
Chris Bassitt will take the mound for the A’s and provides for a nice pitching option on the early slate. The Royals do have some pop in their lineup but it really drops off toward the bottom. I like getting to Bassitt as an expensive SP2 on Draftkings if you can make it work on the early slate. I won’t have any Glenn Sparkman here, the A’s have one of the highest implied run totals on the day at 6.2 here.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: The A’s are right there with the Indians as a top stack on this slate and are pretty similarly priced, so pick your poison. I tend to lean with the Indians.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I think Bassitt has a good amount of talent and is able of shutting this Royals team down.
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Minnesota Twins (-184) @ Chicago White Sox (+169)
Yet another game where I like the road pitcher and the road offense. Jose Berrios draws a nice matchup with the White Sox who have an implied run total of just four runs here at home. The White Sox have a strikeout rate of 26.4% against right-handed pitching on the season. If you want to go off the board and fade Clevinger, you make a combo of Berrios and Bassitt pretty easily. No interest in Dylan Cease here, as I said I like the Twins offense and are probably first on my list of stacks. So far I would rank them, Twins, Indians, A’s in that order.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler (if in the lineup), Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Luis Arraez, Whoever catches
GPP Note: They are my top stack on the early slate, get to them with confidence here.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: You don’t need to be targeting bats against Jose Berrios.
Tampa Bay Rays (+223) @ Houston Astros (-244)
The Rays draw a tough matchup with Zack Greinke here who has been a bit up-and-down for the Astros since coming over. I would rank Greinke behind Berrios and Clevinger, but ahead of Bassitt in terms of prioritization. Overall, I won’t be getting to a whole lot of Rays here. The Astros are a great stack on a slate that has at least four viable stacks. I will slide them in right behind the Twins as my second favorite team on the slate.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, George Springer, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: As I mentioned I like the Astros as my second favorite stack, it’s hard not to like them here with a 5.4 implied run total at home.
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Chicago Cubs (+174) @ New York Mets (-190)
This game is the first game on the main slate and features a matchup between Jacob deGrom and Jon Lester. Many of you know that I am a Jon Lester hater and will stack against him every chance I get. The Mets have a 4.4 implied run total here at home and will be a team I have some GPP interest in. I won’t get too many Cubs here with the deGrom matchup, that said I don’t think I’ll get all the way up to deGrom from a pitching standpoint either, although if you do I won’t talk you off of it.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Don’t attack Jacob deGrom
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Ahmed Rosario
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos (DK), JD Davis
GPP Note: Like most slates, I will have interest in a stack against Jon Lester, don’t be afraid to get to the Mets here.
Cincinnati Reds (-150) @ Miami Marlins (+130)
I wrote up Alex Wood in my pitcher’s section, he hasn’t been good lately but a matchup with the Marlins solves many pitching woes. The away team in Miami has been putting up big outings here lately with the Phillies and Reds taking advantage of this poor pitching staff. I don’t hate getting to the Reds here as a GPP stack against Duggar, but I think there are better places if I’m being honest on this slate.
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Josh VanMeter
GPP Note: Don’t hate them as a GPP team, but that’s about it in a big ballpark.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Alex Wood than any of the Miami bats.
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Seattle Mariners (+159) @ Texas Rangers (-173)
Lance Lynn is probably my favorite pitcher on the main slate when we take price into the equation. The Mariners are not a team I am afraid of and Lynn’s price has come down a good bit here. The Rangers are always priced up because of the nice hitting conditions in Texas, but I really don’t think their bats warrant their prices even in a nice matchup against Felix Hernandez who is well past his prime.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have too much Lance Lynn to even consider any sort of Mariners mini-stack.
TEX 5-star plays: Danny Santana
4-star plays: Nick Solak, Shin-soo Choo
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, maybe some mini-stacks if you’re feeling crazy.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) @ Colorado Rockies (-103)
There haven’t been many teams that I am liking as stacks on this main slate, but that all changes with Coors field. Chi Chi Gonzalez and Trevor Williams are not exactly roadblocks for Coors as well. Each team has an implied run total of at least 7.3 here and are both in play from a stack perspective if you can find the salary for them. I like the Pirates slightly more here due to the matchup with Gonzalez who has given up a hard contact rate of 45.8% on the season. They’re expensive, but both teams are great stacks here.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte, Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Top stack on the slate for me, but finding the salary may be difficult for a full-stack.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: I like the Pirates slightly more, but I will not talk anyone off of playing the Rockies here.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-193) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+177)
Hyun-Jin Ryu will draw the start for the Dodgers and will provide a difficult matchup for the Dbacks who have an implied run total of just 3.8 here. Ryu has come down to earth lately, over his past ten games he is averaging just over 15.5 Draftkings points per game which really doesn’t match up with his high salary. This is a tough offense so I think I’ll take the savings with Lynn or find the extra money for deGrom here. The Dodgers are right up there with Coors as my favorite stack on the main slate. Merrill Kelly has been absolutely abysmal since the all-star break. He has given up at least six earned runs in two of his last three games and is giving up a hard contact percentage of 42.6% on the season. This Dodgers team is a scary one and one I will be sure to get exposure to here.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, AJ Pollock
GPP Note: Love this spot for the Dodgers and their 5.3 implied run total.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Although I don’t see myself getting too much of Ryu, I won’t be going out of my way to roster batters against him.
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San Diego Padres (-129) @ San Francisco Giants (+119)
I wrote Dereck Rodriguez up as a potential SP2 punt play here and it makes a lot of sense pairing him with Lynn to jam in one of the Coors teams or the Dodgers. Chris Paddack is a viable option on this slate as well, if you’re not able to get all the way up to Lynn or you want to jam in two expensive pitchers, Paddack is certainly playable against his Giants team that has an implied run total of just 3.8 runs in one of the biggest pitchers parks in baseball.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Just power one-offs here for me, I expect to get some Rodriguez here.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Chris Paddack is one of my favorite young pitchers in the league, I’m not going out of my way to play bats against him in this ballpark.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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