Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Gerrit Cole – I can’t get the Carnage Report to load today for some reason so I will rely on the fact that Cole has the HIGHEST ceiling thanks to his insane K rate on the season. The match-up isn’t terrible but it’s not like he is facing the Padres K rate.
- Mike Foltynewicz – I really think this is the spot to jump on Folty. He has looked really solid since returning to the majors and TOR’s overall lineup isn’t dangerous. He just needs to avoid getting spanked by Bichette and Vlad Jr.
- Aaron Civale – Civale has been impressive at the MLB level this season and faces a team that he shutout over 6 innings earlier. The Tigers strike out a ton vs RHPs and the Indians offense should provide him with some support against Zimmermann.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Boston Red Sox (-170) vs Colorado Rockies
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Peter Lambert
Rodriguez threw 6 innings against COL earlier this season and allowed 5 runs but he struck out 10 in that game. Tuesday night’s game just got over with and it managed to get to 16 runs total in the game as the Red Sox put up double digits. The match-up for Lambert is not a good one for him here as he allows a TON of contact and the Red Sox make hard contact when they put the ball in play. Should be another high scoring game between these two.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 with 31 runs scored over the last 6 games
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 over the last 7 games
St Louis Cardinals (-120) vs Milwaukee Brewers
Jack Flaherty vs Jordan Lyles
Lyles has given up 9 runs in 7.2 innings against the Cardinals this season, across 2 starts. He has given up 3 HRs in those 7.2 innings. Flaherty has had his own struggles against the Brewers this season as he has given up 13 runs in 13 innings but he has struck out 18. He has allowed 6 HRs in those 13 innings as well. Over Flaherty’s last 32 innings he has allowed just 1 run and has struck out 40.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Have scored 55 runs with just 43 strikeouts over their last 7 games
MIL 5-star plays: Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Hitting .270 with 23 runs scored over their last 6 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Mitch Keller vs Vince Velasquez
Keller is coming off of a very strong outing, his best at the MLB level. Velasquez has struggled lately so we have SPs on the opposite ends of the current form. The game has a total sitting at 10 as of this morning so it opens up the offenses for me here. Both SPs have given up more HRs to RHBs on the season but they have been hit by LHBs as well. I definitely do not mind a game stack as the ballpark is definitely built for hitters.
PIT 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Just 5 HRs and 37 runs over their last 7 games
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura, Scott Kingery
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: 29 of their last 62 hits (7 games) have been for extra bases
Cincinnati Reds (-140) vs Miami Marlins
Anthony DeSclafani vs Sandy Alcantara
This game is all about the LHBs for me. I do think each SP has merit to be considered, mostly DeSclafani. Both SPs have issues with LHBs this season but the ballpark is large enough that I don’t see a need to stack either side unless you are MME’ing. I can see you going with a CIN stack and while I won’t argue against it, I just don’t know that it has the upside we need to take down a GPP at this point in the morning.
CIN 5-star plays: Freddy Galvis, Josh VanMeter
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Just 28 runs scored over their last 6 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Neil Walker
GPP Note: Aside from scoring 19 against PHI, they have scored just 16 runs over the other 6 days of their past 7
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New York Yankees (-220) vs Seattle Mariners
James Paxton vs Justus Sheffield
Paxton is coming off of a strong start where he struck out 11 in 6.2 innings. We know that Sheffield was a highly rated prospect in the Yankees organization so some of the Yankees bats are familiar with him. He has struggled with his control at the MLB level this season and walks can lead to BIG innings. I will be all over the Yankees side here while using a few SEA bats as one-offs.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: 17 HRs and an ISO of .261 over the last 7 games
SEA 5-star plays: Tom Murphy
4-star plays: Austin Nola, Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Scored 25 runs with 7 HRs and an ISO of .197 over their last 6 games
Oakland Athletics (-155) vs Kansas City Royals
Tanner Roark vs Jacob Junis
Roark has looked really strong for the A’s in 24 August innings. He has allowed just 7 runs and picked up 23 strikeouts. He gets a strong match-up against a team that is struggling over the last week. Kansas City has put up just 18 runs over their last 6 games while averaging a strikeout per inning. Junis is an interesting GPP option as the A’s have been swinging strong bats and have a TON of power, up and down their lineup. His overall numbers are weaker at home but his K rate goes up and his HRs allowed rate goes down.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
GPP Note: 25 extra-base hits and just 45 strikeouts over their last 6 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team average of .232 and an OPS of .646 over the last 6 games.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals (-410)
Asher Wojciechowski vs Max Scherzer
I am not sure that Scherzer is in play yet thanks to his price point, paired with his pitch count as he works his way back from an IL stint. He managed just 4 innings in his return from the IL. The match-up is ideal for him and the Nationals are gigantic home favorites here. The Nationals offense REALLY let a TON of people down yesterday as they were completely shut down by the Orioles. Asher has been impressive as a starter for the Orioles but he has given up 14 HRs in just 54 innings on the season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: 10 HRs as a team but just 28 runs over the last 6 games
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Adam Eaton, Matt Adams
GPP Note: 41 runs on 22 extra-base hits over the last 6 games
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets (-130)
Kyle Hendricks vs Noah Syndergaard
This game has a total set at 7.5 runs as of this morning and that forces me to consider both SPs while only using bats as one-offs. I think there is merit to stacking either side in GPPs but the Mets bats have been absolutely ice cold over the last week. The Cubs have a few guys that have had decent success against Syndergaard and another couple of guys who are swinging it really well. Syndergaard has been a bit of reverse splits SP at this point so I think a Cubs RHB stack near the top makes an interesting choice.
CHC 5-star plays: Javy Baez, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Just 28 runs and a .223 average over their last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Have scored just 15 runs over their last 6 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) vs San Diego Padres
Kenta Maeda vs Trey Wingenter (Opener)
As of this morning, it looks like Perdomo will follow Wingenter has the long-man. If Perdomo was stretched out he would make an interesting GPP option on DK, the problem is he really hasn’t been so it looks more like a bullpen game. Perdomo has had issues with LHBs in his MLB career and that is a dangerous thing against the Dodgers lineup. I like Maeda as an SP but have some worries with him going on the road as he has really struggled away from LA this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Matt Beaty
GPP Note: Have scored just 22 runs over the last 7 games with an average of just .212
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Hitting just .182 as a team over their last 6 games. 13 runs scored and 53 strikeouts in those 6 games
Minnesota Twins (-185) vs Chicago White Sox
Jake Odorizzi vs Ross Detwiler
The Twins are in a smash spot against an LHP that doesn’t pick up many strikeouts at all. As a roster, they have 12 extra-base hits (5 HRs) in 75 ABs against Detwiler. Odorizzi has 15 Ks in 10.1 innings against the White Sox this season and he has allowed just 3 earned runs in those 2 starts. His HRs allowed rate plummets pitching on the road as well.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, Miguel Sano
4-star plays: Mitch Garver, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: 24 runs and 11 HRs hit over their last 5 games
CHW 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 with just 21 runs scores over their last 6 games
Cleveland Indians (-180) vs Detroit Tigers
Aaron Civale vs Jordan Zimmermann
The Indians are in a strong spot, but not quite as strong as the Twins are at this point. Civale has made a start against DET this season and fired 6 shutout innings with 6 strikeouts against them. He has given up just 6 runs over his 4 August starts. Zimmermann has been somewhat strong against the Indians in his career but he is a below-average SP at this point. I am going to be all about the Indians side in this one and Civale makes a strong GPP/CASH type option.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Hitting just .242 with 29 runs over their last 6 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: John Hicks
GPP Note: Just 6 HRs and 68 Ks over the last 6 games
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros (-200)
Ryan Yarbrough vs Gerrit Cole
Yarbrough has been one of the hottest pitchers in August as he has allowed just 2 earned runs in 24 innings. He has an average allowed of just .153 and has picked up 28 strikeouts. He draws a ridiculously tough match-up in not only the Astros lineup but also the opposing SP. Cole’s K numbers are through the roof and the TB offense has been pretty basic over the last week or so. Cole struck out 10 Rays in 6 innings earlier this season.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Just 24 runs and 7 HRs over their last 6 games
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer
GPP Note: 29 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Atlanta Braves (-145) vs Toronto Blue Jays
Mike Foltynewicz vs Jacob Waguespack
Folty has been really strong in August and looks to be figuring things out as the season comes to an end. He has some pretty solid upside in this match-up, as long as he is able to contain Bichette. Waguespack has been a severe reverse splits pitcher at the MLB level this season. An ATL stack makes a TON of sense for GPP purposes, even with how cold they have been at the plate. The game does have a total set at 9.5 runs and I could see it going over with a big performance by the Braves bats.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Hitting just .181 with 23 runs over their last 7 games
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Hitting just .221 with 18 runs over their last 6 games
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels (-160)
Clase/Jurado vs Patrick Sandoval
Sandoval gets to follow up the impressive performance of Heaney last night. We talked at length about how bad TEX is against LHPs and they face another one in this game. The Rangers are going to deploy Clase as an opener and will follow him up with reverse splits pitcher, Jurado. The reverse splits has me worried for him in this spot as Trout happens to be REALLY good at this baseball thing and the Angels have some solid RHBs to get through.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Willie Calhoun, Nick Solak
GPP Note: Hitting just .188 with an OPS of just .551 over their last 6 games
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Just 20 runs over their last 5 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
