Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Walker Buehler – Buehler has the second-highest KSCORE and the fourth-best Carnage Rating on the slate. He is more in play for me than Verlander is because of the struggling opponent that he gets to take on.
- Patrick Corbin – Corbin is an interesting option tonight as he offers a high KSCORE but the Orioles have been hitting LHPs well recently. He is a gigantic home favorite against an AL team that loses it’s DH. He has the fourth-best VKSCORE on the slate.
- Adrian Houser – Houser is 100% a price point play for me on DK at just $5K. That price makes no sense to me with the way he has been pitching, even against a hot STL team. His overall Carnage rating sits in the top third for this slate so that shows what kind of value we get at that $5K price tag.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies
Rick Porcello vs Rico Garcia
Porcello has given up 12 HRs in just 47.1 road innings this season. That is NOT a good number to have attached to you as you enter the Coors field. The Red Sox offense has gone a bit cold recently but this is obviously a spot for them to get right. Colorado is calling up Garcia to make this start. His minor league numbers are tough to decipher as he has had some strong showings but in Triple-A this year he has been smacked around, hard. Those numbers are happening in the PCL which is an extreme hitters league. The issue is that this game is in an extreme hitters park.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 with just 21 runs scored over the last 5 games
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 over the last 7 games
St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers (-140)
Miles Mikolas vs Adrian Houser
Houser has given up 8 runs in 9.1 innings against STL this season. In those 9.1 innings, he has allowed 15 hits and 3 walks against them to go with 9 strikeouts. Over the last 30 days, he has been really strong as he has allowed just 8 earned runs in 28.1 innings while striking out 31 batters. Mikolas struggles against LHBs and his ERA is over 3.7 runs HIGHER on the road. He faced the Brewers once earlier this season and allowed 5 runs in 5 innings.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: Have scored 55 runs with just 43 strikeouts over their last 7 games
MIL 5-star plays: Eric Thames, Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Hitting .270 with 23 runs scored over their last 6 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies (-140)
Steven Brault vs Drew Smyly
This game is sitting with a total set at 10 runs and I am not sure how to attack it. Both SPs are not all that great but have had success against the lineups that they will be facing. Brault has been respectable this season, especially over the last few starts but can be hit hard by RHBs. Smyly started his PHI career really well but has fallen back to what he was prior to them acquiring him. Smyly has given up 26 HRs in just 83.2 innings (11 to LHBs in just 78 ABs).
PIT 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Colin Moran
GPP Note: Just 5 HRs and 37 runs over their last 7 games
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura, Scott Kingery
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: 24 of their last 51 hits (6 games) have been for extra bases
Cincinnati Reds (-150) vs Miami Marlins
Luis Castillo vs Caleb Smith
Castillo has K’d this Marlins roster 17 times in just 55 PAs in their careers. His upside here is through the roof as this game offers a total of just 7 runs, by far the lowest of the day. Smith has struggled a bit over his last few starts but his numbers at home are extremely strong this season and the Reds aren’t exactly a juggernaut. I will be going right back to this game for my pitching options.
CIN 5-star plays: Freddy Galvis
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Just 23 runs scored over their last 6 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Neil Walker
GPP Note: Aside from scoring 19 against PHI, they have scored just 12 runs over the other 6 days of their past 7
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants
Mike Leake vs Jeff Samardzija
Both offenses are somewhat cold but they get to face SPs that they have some solid history against. I am curious to see what the total ends up being set at as this game is interesting to me. As of right now, I lean towards both SPs with Samardzija being my preferred side here as he has been really strong at home, in a gigantic ballpark.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Adam Jones, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Hitting just .199 with 22 runs over their last 6 games
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt, Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 with 33 runs scored over the last 6 games
New York Yankees (-185) vs Seattle Mariners
Masahiro Tanaka vs Yusei Kikuchi
This game is all about the Yankees for me. Tanaka makes sense as a big, road favorite and the offense is in a great spot against Kikuchi. They run out so much power that it’s going to be really tough on the SEA staff in this series. If you take a look at the Starting Lineups page on site, you will see a TON of numbers to like on the Yankees side of the match-up.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Mike Ford
GPP Note: 17 HRs and an ISO of .255 over the last 7 games
SEA 5-star plays: Kyle Seager, Omar Narvaez
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, J.P. Crawford
GPP Note: Scored 32 runs with 9 HRs and an ISO of .231 over their last 6 games
Oakland Athletics (-170) vs Kansas City Royals
Mike Fiers vs Mike Montgomery
The A’s blew up last night and that will increase their ownership tonight as people use a TON of recency bias in their decisions. The tough thing for me is to decide what to do because I really like a few of the Oakland bats. Kansas City is definitely struggling but this game carries a total of 10 runs as of this morning. Montgomery was blown up the last time we wanted to use him at a cheap price on DK so I have some reservations but that price tag makes it really interesting.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha, Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
GPP Note: 28 extra-base hits and just 44 strikeouts over their last 6 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team average of .221 and an OPS of .616 over the last 6 games.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals (-310)
Aaron Brooks vs Patrick Corbin
The Nationals have a ridiculously high run total in this game as they take on an Orioles team that is giving up a TON of HRs. They have already set the MLB record and they still have 31 games to go. The Nationals are the hottest team in baseball right now. They are destroying the baseball and opposing teams’ pitching staffs. I will be finding a way to stack them in multiple ways. Corbin is going to be pretty popular and while I can’t argue it, I will have some BAL exposure as a few of their bats are hitting LHPs really well of late.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: 11 HRs as a team but just 30 runs over the last 6 games
WAS 5-star plays: Adam Eaton, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams
GPP Note: 42 runs on 22 extra-base hits over the last 6 games
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets (-110)
Yu Darvish vs Marcus Stroman
This game is sitting with a total of just 8.5 runs and I could see that total drop another half of a run before first pitch happens. The Mets got to Darvish for 4 runs in 6 innings earlier this season despite hitting just .182 against him in that game. He has allowed 30 HRs in 144.1 innings this season while Stroman has allowed just 13 HRs in the same amount of innings. I prefer the SPs in this game but will use some stacks of both teams because of how they are capable of going off.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Just 28 runs and a .218 average over their last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Have scored just 22 runs over their last 6 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) vs San Diego Padres
Walker Buehler vs Cal Quantrill
This is a HUGE spot for Buehler tonight as the Padres lineup has really taken a turn after trading Reyes and losing Tatis Jr for the season. The K upside is really strong and he makes a better option at the top than Justin Verlander tonight (and I always love some JV in my life). The Dodgers aren’t swinging the greatest of bats right now but they do continue to pick up extra-base hits when they do put the ball in play. Having an ISO greater than their average over the last week is an interesting stat to see.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Will Smith
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Have scored just 29 runs over the last 7 games with an average of just .219 but an ISO of .228.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: Hitting just .176 as a team over their last 6 games. 15 runs scored and 52 strikeouts in those 6 games
Minnesota Twins (-120) vs Chicago White Sox
Michael Pineda vs Lucas Giolito
I am a bit shocked to see a game total at 9 here. We know the Twins are an extremely dangerous team but Giolito just absolutely destroyed their lineup recently. In fact, Giolito has made 3 starts against MIN this season and shut them out in 2 of them (across 14 innings). In the other start, he was absolutely smashed by them and their power. Pineda has made 3 starts against the White Sox and has picked up 17 Ks in 20 innings while allowing an average of just .222 against him. Pineda is 3-0 in those 3 starts this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Jake Cave
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: 35 runs and 12 HRs hit over their last 5 games
CHW 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Leury Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 with just 24 runs scores over their last 6 games
Cleveland Indians (-140) vs Detroit Tigers
Adam Plutko vs Spencer Turnbull
This game is sitting with a total at 9 runs and it feels like the Indians are going to go overlooked here so I will definitely have interest in stacking them. Over the last month or so, when CLE has been a chalky stack they have let people down and then have blown up when people have jumped off of the wagon. I want to get on them before the masses do at this point. The lost of Ramirez is going to hurt the lineup quite a bit but should make a stack more affordable.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Oscar Mercado, Jason Kipnis, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Hitting just .210 with 21 runs over their last 6 games
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: John Hicks
GPP Note: Just 7 HRs and 64 Ks over the last 6 games
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros (-170)
Charlie Morton vs Justin Verlander
This game is all about the SPs for me. I don’t think we can go to either in cash (Verlander is going to be borderline) as both offenses have the ability to go off against RHPs. I do think that both SPs are excellent GPP plays due to their K upsides. Both SPs have made one start against the opposing team this season and both put up strong performances with Verlander going deeper and Morton showing a strong K/9 number.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows
GPP Note: Just 27 runs and 6 HRs over their last 6 games
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: 26 extra-base hits over their last 6 games
Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays
Mike Soroka vs Wilmer Font/Zach Godley
Soroka has been absolutely elite on the road in 2019. He has an average against him of .192 and has allowed just 12 earned runs in 81.2 road innings this season. The Blue Jays will deploy an opener and a long-reliever in this game, so a lot of times it’s tough to figure out how to attack that situation. This situation is harder to figure out because Font could go 1 inning or he could go 3 innings which limits Godley’s innings somewhat.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Joyce
GPP Note: Hitting just .184 with 27 runs over their last 7 games
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Hitting just .206 with 18 runs over their last 6 games
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels (-140)
Mike Minor vs Andrew Heaney
I love the SPs in this spot, especially Heaney who just recently dominated this TEX team and struck out 14 batters. We know that the Rangers have struggled vs LHPs and have a high strikeout rate against them. Minor has thrown 25 innings against the Angels this season and has struck out 22 (the Angels generally don’t K much) and has allowed just 1 HR in those 25 innings. I definitely think this game plays to under the total of 8 runs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: Hitting just .188 with an OPS of just .548 over their last 7 games
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Just 22 runs over their last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
