Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Sonny Gray – The obvious spot of the day is here. Sonny Gray has been absolutely sensational and it sounds like some are going to be off of him due to the fact that the Marlins recently exploded for 19 runs. They have scored just 9 runs in the 5 other games over the last week. Do NOT overthink this one and lock him in as your SP1 for cash games.
- Homer Bailey – Pay attention to the weather but Bailey slides into a great spot in his return to KC. The Royals are scuffling on the offensive side and he gets to pitch on a mound that he has strong numbers on this season (home/road splits are mostly from his time in KC)
- Dustin May – It’s been 13 days since May last started and he struggled in a relief appearance but he gets a Padres team that has scored just 14 runs over the last week and strike out a TON vs RHPs. He is going to be popular so make sure you hedge your ownership somewhere with a Padres stack.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Atlanta Braves (-215) vs Colorado Rockies
Julio Teheran vs Tim Melville
Teheran has made 5 career starts at Colorado and has a respectable 4.30 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 29.1 innings. He has allowed just 2 HRs and issued only 8 walks in those 5 starts. Melville made his first MLB appearance in a couple of seasons last week and was really impressive and that caught me off guard. Prior to last week’s start, Melville had given up 6 HRs in 14.2 innings in his MLB career.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Joyce
GPP Note: ATL comes into COL hitting just .181 as a team over the last 6 games.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Daniel Murphy, Raimel Tapia
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .106 over the last 7 games
St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers (-125)
Adam Wainwright vs Gio Gonzalez
Wainwright has faced the Brewers just twice this season and has allowed 17 baserunners in just 11 innings. He has struck out just 5 hitters in those 2 games. We know the Brewers are going to put the ball in play against him. His road numbers this season are absolutely atrocious. Gonzalez has made 1 start against STL and managed to strike out 6 in 5 innings while allowing just 3 hits. He has struggled more with HRs at home but his overall numbers look stronger when pitching in MIL.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader, Yadier Molina
GPP Note: Have scored 46 runs with just 40 strikeouts over their last 7 games
MIL 5-star plays: Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: Hitting just .236 with 21 runs scored over their last 6 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
Joe Musgrove vs Jason Vargas
Both teams come into this one swinging it at a below-average rate. The nice thing is this series is in PHI and not in PIT (big difference in ballparks for hitters). Musgrove has had a rough 30 days as he has given up 21 runs in 27 innings. He did allow just 2 hits in 6 innings while striking out 8 against PHI earlier in the season. Vargas’ strikeout numbers (he was definitely overachieving early season) have fallen off over the last month. He faced PIT earlier this season and allowed 3 runs in 5.2 innings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 6 starts.
PIT 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Melky Cabrera
GPP Note: Just 4 HRs and 32 runs over their last 7 games
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura, Scott Kingery
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: 20 of their last 40 hits (5 games) have been for extra bases
Cincinnati Reds (-160) vs Miami Marlins
Sonny Gray vs Pablo Lopez
This game is going to come down to the SPs for me. Gray has been excellent this season and Lopez has been spectacular at home. Lopez is coming off of being on the IL for over 2 months so we are going to need to see if there is any type of restrictions on him. This game has the lowest total of all the games today, sitting at just 8 runs.
CIN 5-star plays: Freddy Galvis
4-star plays: Josh VanMeter, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Just 19 runs scored over their last 6 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jon Berti
GPP Note: Aside from scoring 19 against PHI, they have scored just 9 runs over the other 6 days of their past 7
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Oakland Athletics (-150) vs Kansas City Royals
Homer Bailey vs Brad Keller
This game has some serious weather issues so make sure you stay up-t0-date. Over Bailey’s last 30 innings he has managed to pick up 27 strikeouts while allowing just 2 HRs and 13 runs while allowing just 6 walks. His numbers this season have been far better when pitching at home and before you think well he is on the road, realize that most of his home starts came as a member of the Royals. Keller has been almost as strong over the last 30 days and has been really strong over his last 2 starts as he has allowed just 3 runs in 12 innings while striking out 9 and holding teams to a .146 batting average.
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson
GPP Note: 21 extra-base hits and just 36 strikeouts over their last 5 games
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team average of .199 and an OPS of .590 over the last 6 games.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) vs San Francisco Giants
Alex Young vs Tyler Beede
Young has made two starts against SF this season and has allowed 6 runs in 10 innings while allowing 14 baserunners. In his start @SF, he allowed just 1 run in 5 innings while striking out 5. Beede has made two starts against ARI and has allowed 6 runs in 9.1 innings while striking out 6 and allowing 10 runs with 6 walks. I think this game has some sneaky offense in it for GPP purposes as a few of the Giants bats are swinging it well recently and we know how ARI is capable of going off.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Jake Lamb
GPP Note: Hitting just .181 with 21 runs over their last 6 games
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria, Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 with 29 runs scored over the last 5 games
New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners
JA Happ vs Wisler/Milone
I love this game for the offense as there are some red hot bats going up against LHPs here. Happ has given up 31 HRs in 129 innings this season, which equates to around 2.2 per 9. He did fire 5, one-hit, innings with 7 strikeouts against SEA earlier this season but that was a different lineup at that point. He has given up 7 HRs over his last 19.2 innings. Milone has given up 15 runs over his last 23 innings while allowing an average of .304. He has given up 19 HRs in 83.2 innings on the season.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela
GPP Note: 14 HRs and an ISO of .241 over the last 6 games
SEA 5-star plays: Austin Nola, Tom Murphy
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Tim Lopes
GPP Note: Scored 37 runs with 10 HRs and an ISO of .241 over their last 6 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-145) vs San Diego Padres
Dustin May vs Eric Lauer
Dustin May is going to be popular and it makes a ton of sense as SD strikes out a TON vs RHPs. May could be a bit rusty as his last start came 13 days ago and has made just a 2 inning relief appearance since then. His worst start (I know he has only made 3 so far) did come against this Padres team. Lauer has been really solid vs the Dodgers in 2019 as he has given up just 6 runs in 17 innings while striking out 17. He has held them to an average against him of just .175 and has given up just 2 HRs.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Will Smith
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: Have scored just 26 runs over the last 6 games with an average of just .221 but an ISO of .226.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Ice cold offense, 14 runs and an average of .177, to go with an ISO of just .110.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
