Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!

My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.

Justin Verlander – Verlander is FAR and away the cash play of the day at the pitcher position. His Carnage Rating, KSCORE, and VKSCORE rating blow everybody else’s away. Don’t get cute here. On DK, pair him with Montgomery and move on for cash games.
Walker Buehler – Buehler has the 4th best Carnage Rating paired with the 2nd highest KSCORE for the main slate.
Mike Montgomery – Montgomery finds himself here based on his $4200 price tag on DK. He has put up 76.6 DK points across his last 3 starts for the Royals. He is currently sitting with the 3rd best Carnage Rating for the main slate.

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Full Count Breakdown:

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros (-440)

Daniel Norris vs Justin Verlander

Norris has given up 5 HRs in 11.2 August innings to this point. That is NOT a good trend to be taking into HOU, to take on the powerful Astros with a short porch in LF. Verlander should be one of the easiest cash gameplays of the season against his former team. That is a HUGE number next to HOU above and he should be able to breeze through some innings on his way to 10+ Ks (Verlander has 6 straight 10+ K performances).

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: NONE

GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last 7 games

HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

4-star plays: George Springer, Yuli Gurriel

GPP Note: 6 Astros have multiple HRs over the last 7 games

Kansas City Royals (-115) vs Baltimore Orioles

Mike Montgomery vs Aaron Brooks

Montgomery’s price on DK is insanely low for a guy who has averaged over 25 DK points per start across his last 3 outings. There are a few bats on BAL that have hit LHPs well but Montgomery has actually leaned reverse splits this season. The Royals bats are not clicking right now so it’s tough to look at them as more than one-offs against a blah pitcher in Aaron Brooks.

KC 5-star plays: Hunter Dozier

4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .081 over the last 6 games

BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez

4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Hanser Alberto

GPP Note: Just 20 runs scored over their last 6 games

Washington Nationals (-150) vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Patrick Corbin vs Joe Musgrove

The hot Nationals offense was shut down by the Pirates bullpen (Archer left injured) last night. I don’t think that happens again as the bullpen will be taxed a bit so if they can get to Musgrove, they are going to have some success against that same bullpen tonight. Corbin has impressive stuff and ability but Pittsburgh isn’t exactly offering a TON of strikeouts. With that said, I do like Corbin for GPP lineups with some Pirates used as one-offs.

WAS 5-star plays: Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon

4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Matt Adams

GPP Note: Team ISO of .384 with 21 HRs over the last 6 games.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Starling Marte, Josh Bell

GPP Note: Scored 18 runs over the last 6 games

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox (-170)

Drew Smyly vs Rick Porcello

This game feels like it will be loaded with the offense. Smyly has been solid for PHI but BOS has so many bats that can destroy LHPs and the Phillies have the bats to knock Porcello around early and often. I will definitely be stacking this game multiple ways in hopes of a 10-8 type of an outcome.

PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper

4-star plays: Jean Segura, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison

GPP Note: 9 HRs hit over the last 6 games, 8 of them by Realmuto and Harper

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts

4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Sam Travis, JD Martinez

GPP Note: 38 runs on 64 hits over the last 5 games

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers (-125)

Patrick Sandoval vs Mike Minor

Both of these teams can struggle vs LHPs so both SPs are in play for me. Minor has faced the Angels 3 times and has picked up 16 Ks in 19.1 innings. The Angels have an average against him of just .154 this season. I will only be using bats in this game as one-offs, even with an inflated projected total. I just feel like it’s more of a trap than anything at this point.

LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher

4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols

GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 and team OPS of .803 over the last 8 games.

TEX 5-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence

4-star plays: Willie Calhoun, Danny Santana

GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 vs LHPs but striking out at a 26% rate vs LHPs

Cleveland Indians vs New York Mets (-155)

Adam Plutko vs Marcus Stroman

This game is going to have some offense in it today and I really think that both teams put up 5+ runs here. I know Stroman has been solid this season and is an excellent SP but the Indians are scoring runs. Plutko faces a team that his hitting a ton, getting on base a ton and offering a lot of upsides. Alonso is one of my favorite GPP targets on the slate.

CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin

GPP Note: 37 runs scored over their last 6 games

NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso

4-star plays: Amed Rosario, JD Davis

GPP Note: Team average of .350 over the last 6 games

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Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays (-285)

Opener/Wade LeBlanc vs Charlie Morton

This game should be all about the SPs. Each team has a couple of bats that make sense for GPP plays with how they have been swinging it but I want the pitchers here. Morton picked up a bunch of Ks against SEA earlier, even while allowing 4 runs. LeBlanc shut down TB earlier without picking up much for Ks.

SEA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy, Austin Nola

GPP Note: The 2 guys above have combined for 7 HRs over the last 7 days

TB 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows

GPP Note: Team average of .179 and just 15 runs over the last 6 games

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Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins (-175)

Lucas Giolito vs Jake Odorizzi

Giolito has been knocked around by the Twins this season while Odorizzi shut down the White Sox the one time he faced them. The Twins lineup is so dangerous when Cruz is healthy and hitting in the 3-spot while the White Sox lineup basically relies on Abreu and Anderson as this point.

CWS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu

GPP Note: Anderson and Abreu are a combined 22 for 56 with 5 doubles and 4 HRs over the last 7 games

MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz

4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario

GPP Note: 58 runs scored over the last 7 games

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves (-190)

Caleb Smith vs Julio Teheran

I love Teheran in this spot as the Marlins are not driving the ball at all. Their lineup is extremely weak overall and lacks any kind of power to do damage to Teheran in this spot. Teheran has thrown 25 innings against Miami and has picked up 22 strikeouts. While the 22 strikeouts are nice, it’s the fact that he has allowed just 1 run in those 25 innings that makes me love him here. The Braves offense is in a great spot for GPPs as Smith can be dominant or he can allow a ton of baserunners and not get out of the 5th inning.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Brian Anderson

GPP Note: Just 4 HRs and an ISO of .128 over the last 6 games

ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies

4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman

GPP Note: Team ISO of .232 over the last 6 games

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San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds (-140)

Matt Strahm/Robbie Erlin vs Luis Castillo

The Padres are going to employ an opener here with another LHP to follow him. That allows us to focus on guys who hit LHPs well. Castillo is in a strong GPP spot with the K upside that the Padres offer him. A couple of SD bats have hit him well but he gets to pitch at home, where he has been a TON better in 2019.

SD 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Francisco Mejia

GPP Note: Team ISO of just .120 over the last 6 games

CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino

4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Freddy Galvis

GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last 7 games

Milwaukee Brewers vs St Louis Cardinals (-110)

Adrian Houser vs Adam Wainwright

This game could turn into another pitcher’s duel between these two teams. Houser has been impressive recently while Wainwright has been nearly elite when pitching at home in 2019. I will definitely be on the Brewers bats as a stack again because I have to ride them out since I feel like I am “pot committed” at this point.

MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich

4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames

GPP Note: 13 HRs over the last 6 games

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler

4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last 7 games

Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Jon Gray vs Mike Leake

Gray is a strong SP but he actually performs better when pitching in Coors. Leake is NOT a strong SP so we should see some offense here in Arizona. This is going to be a strong game to stack for GPP purposes. There should be a bunch of extra-base hits here and I would not be shocked to see 13+ runs scored in this game.

COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Ryan McMahon

4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon

GPP Note: Team ISO of .257 over the last 6 games

ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed

4-star plays: David Peralta, Jake Lamb

GPP Note: 15 HRs over the last 7 games

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs (-230)

Dereck Rodriguez vs Yu Darvish

Since I began writing this, the Cubs have moved from a -190 favorite to the above, -230. The total sits at just 9 runs so the Cubs team total is on the rise at this point as well. I will be on the Cubs lineup as I wait to see what the wind is projected to do in Wrigley. Rizzo-Castellanos make an EXCELLENT mini-stack with how they have been swinging it.

SF 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar

4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski

GPP Note: .292 Team average over the last 6 games

CHC 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos

4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo

GPP Note: Team average of just .209 over the last 6 games

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics (-115)

JA Happ vs Mike Fiers

I am going to use this game to HR hunt at this point in the morning. Fiers can shut down some flyball hitting teams but we saw recently that HRs can happen for him as well. The A’s are hitting the ball well and they have a few guys who are smashing the baseball against LHPs. This is one of those spots that you might need to have a piece or two in your GPP lineups to avoid a late-night plummet in GPPs.

NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu

4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Cameron Maybin, Gleyber Torres

GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last 6 games

OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha

4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson

GPP Note: 26 extra-base hits over the last 6 games

The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-310)

Undecided vs Walker Buehler

Sounds like TOR will use a bullpen game to help organize their staff a little bit heading into the weekend. I normally hate bullpen games because Managers get to pick and choose their match-ups. With that said, the Dodgers are just elite at hitting the baseball all over the ballpark. I expect to see more fireworks from them on the offensive end while Buehler offers us some upper-level K upside.

TOR 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 over the last 5 games

LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager

4-star plays: Justin Turner, AJ Pollock, Will Smith

GPP Note: Team ISO of .338 over the last 6 games

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.