Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw has given up 2 runs or less in each of his last 7 starts and faces a team full of young hitters that might just be more focused on his name than his stuff at this point. He is still an elite level SP but he has lost a few ticks in the MPH category. The W should be locked in for him in this spot.
- Aaron Sanchez – Sanchez is sitting atop our Carnage Report with the best carnage rating AND the highest KSCORE. The match-up is ideal and he has been solid as a member of the Astros staff. He makes a ton of sense as a plug-in cash option tonight.
- Andrew Heaney – I LOVE Heaney’s K upside against a team that strikes out at a very high rate vs LHPs this season. Heaney is sitting with the 2nd best Carnage rating on the slate as of this morning.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros (-310)
Spencer Turnbull vs Aaron Sanchez
This spot is all about Aaron Sanchez for me. He sits atop our Carnage Report with the best carnage rating and the highest KSCORE. The Tigers are NOT a dangerous team and as you can see below, Sanchez has been dominant against the roster of the Tigers. The Astros are hitting HRs and while I think Turnbull is a solid MLB pitcher, he is no match for what the Astros have done and are capable of continuing to do.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis Demeritte, Victor Reyes
GPP Note: As a team, DET is 5 for 49 in their careers against Sanchez
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: 6 Astros have multiple HRs over the last 7 games
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles (-110)
Brad Keller vs Dylan Bundy
I honestly think both SPs are in play here as the bats in this game just don’t scare me enough. If I had to choose a side it would be the KC bats as they have a couple of guys that are swinging it well and are solid in R v R situations. Both offenses are pretty cold overall so I will be getting shares of this SP duo and do NOT hate the idea of pairing them together on DK.
KC 5-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Brett Phillips
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .059 over the last 5 games
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: Just 20 runs scored over their last 6 games
Washington Nationals (-155) vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Stephen Strasburg vs Chris Archer
Look below just a few lines, you see that 21 HRs over the last 6 games? Yeah, that number is pretty good. Archer has had some issues with the HR ball this season. Some times things align perfectly in match-ups and that certainly could be this spot. I do expect WAS to disappoint us at some point, as their ownership will continue to climb.
WAS 5-star plays: Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Matt Adams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .384 with 21 HRs over the last 6 games.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: Scored 18 runs over the last 6 games
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox
Aaron Nola vs Undecided
The rumor is that BOS will be starting Brian Johnson but they could turn to Andrew Cashner as well. Either way, PHI bats are in an intriguing spot here and the Harper-Realmuto combo have been doing a TON of the damage of late. The Red Sox bats are on a roll as they are averaging over 7 runs and nearly 13 hits per game over the last 5. Devers HAS to be in consideration for MVP at this point, especially if BOS can straighten things out and inch back into the playoff race.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jean Segura
GPP Note: 9 HRs hit over the last 6 games, 8 of them by Realmuto and Harper
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland
GPP Note: 38 runs on 64 hits over the last 5 games
Los Angeles Angels (-136) vs Texas Rangers – Game 2
Jaime Barria vs Brock Burke
These teams will play a day/night doubleheader today. A few LAA bats are swinging it well and they take on an LHP that is making his debut in this spot. While Burke has done a solid job of limiting HRs in the minors, he doesn’t seem to have the stuff to really shut down a team at the MLB level. Pay attention to the TEX lineup as Mazara and Santana both left Monday’s game. I want LHBs against Barria in this spot.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 and team OPS of .857 over the last 7 games.
TEX 5-star plays: Shin-Soo Choo
4-star plays: Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: TEX lost 2 of it’s hottest hitters, Mazara and Santana, to in-game injuries Monday. Pay attention to the lineup!
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers – Game 1
Andrew Heaney vs Joe Palumbo
The Angels get to face an LHP in both games of the doubleheader while TEX faces a tough LHP in game 2. I am all about Heaney in this spot because of how weak TEX has been vs LHPs. They are striking out at a high rate and LHPs get to neutralize most of the dangerous bats in the TEX lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, David Fletcher
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Angels strike out at just an 18% rate vs LHPs
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Striking out over 26% of the time vs LHPs
Cleveland Indians (-160) vs New York Mets
Shane Bieber vs Steven Matz
Both offenses have been hitting the ball well recently but I have a hard time wanting to target bats in this spot. Bieber has been strong all season long while Matz has been near elite when pitching at home this season. I will definitely get myself some CLE stacks as they tend to go off when they aren’t expected to at this point. As far as Mets bats go, I think I will limit myself to one-offs at this point. If I end up using a lot of Bieber then I will definitely make a hedge stack somewhere.
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: 41 runs scored over their last 6 games
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Joe Panik
GPP Note: Team average of .352 over the last 6 games
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Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Matt Wisler/Tommy Milone vs Diego Castillo/Jalen Beeks
We definitely need to pay attention to the SP/LR plans for each team as it looks like openers for both. As it sits right now, both teams will follow their openers with an LHP. If that happens, I have more interest in a couple of SEA bats than TB bats, to be honest. Nola and Murphy are on a roll right now for the Mariners. Zunino has strong BvP vs Beeks for the Rays.
SEA 5-star plays: Austin Nola
4-star plays: Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy
GPP Note: The 3 guys above have combined for 10 HRs over the last 7 days
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: Team average of .190 and just 18 runs scored over the last 6 games
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Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins (-230)
Reynaldo Lopez vs Michael Pineda
I am very much on the Twins side, which means I will also have a few shares of Lopez in spots. The Twins welcomed back Nelson Cruz last night and he makes a huge difference in their lineup as he allows them to stretch it out. Pineda has had success against the White Sox and should be in a very strong spot here again. The Twins are averaging over 7 runs per game over the last week and while Lopez has had some strong performances this season, he also has had some blowups.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Ryan Goins
GPP Note: Abreu is 0 for 10 in his career against Pineda
MIN 5-star plays: Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: 51 runs scored over the last 7 games
Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves (-310)
Elieser Hernandez vs Dallas Keuchel
The Marlins are back to their soft swinging ways (they had a recent stretch where they actually were scoring runs). Keuchel is in the best spot for cash on the slate as he only has to worry about Anderson and Castro. The Braves aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard and I think Hernandez has some solid stuff but it’s a tall task for him. I don’t see myself stacking ATL but one-offs are ALWAYS in play with their power potential.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Just 3 HRs and an ISO of .116 over the last 6 games
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last 6 games
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San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds (-160)
Cal Quantrill vs Sonny Gray
I am very much interested in the SPs here, even in a smaller ballpark. The game has a total set at 8.5 which is low given the explosive baseball landscape this season and the park size. I am only interested in one-offs from the offenses here and will have a decent amount of shares of both SPs. Gray will be more popular so I am more on Quantrill for GPP purposes.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .114 over the last 6 games
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Freddy Galvis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last 7 games
Milwaukee Brewers (-110) vs St Louis Cardinals
Gio Gonzalez vs Michael Wacha
This game is sitting with a total of 9.5 and I think it has a chance to creep higher based on how the SPs line up against the projected lineups in this game. The Brewers really let us down last night as they were nearly no-hit by Hudson and the Cardinals pen. I think they bounce back here and will be doubling down on my love of them tonight against Wacha. I was at Gio’s last start vs the Twins and HRs are definitely going to be an issue for him, especially against a very RH heavy lineup.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: 14 HRs over the last 6 games
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dexter Fowler
4-star plays: Matt Wieters/Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: 24% K rate over the last 7 games
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Kyle Freeland vs Alex Young
Young has made one start against COL this season and he fired 6 no-hit innings against them. Freeland, on the other hand, has given up 7 HRs and 18 runs across 3 starts (15 innings) against ARI. Those numbers should tell us all we need to know here, ARI is going to be at the top of many stack rankings around the industry and I assume that will be the case with mine when I publish them later today.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .250 over the last 6 games
ARI 5-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: 18 HRs over the last 7 games
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs (-190)
Tyler Beede vs Cole Hamels
The Cubs are huge favorites against a weak SF Team that has a couple of guys that have either hit Hamels well or are hitting well right now. On the other side, Chicago has been pretty cold as seen by their team average of just .190 over the last 6 games. SF is the hotter hitting team but Hamels is by far the better SP in this game. He is coming off of a terrible performance and the total is sitting at 9.5 runs here so we should expect both teams to put up a few runs tonight.
SF 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Buster Posey, Evan Longoria
GPP Note: .300 Team batting average over the last 6 games
CHC 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team average of just .190 over the last 6 games
New York Yankees (-135) vs Oakland Athletics
Domingo German vs Homer Bailey
The Yankees haven’t been destroying the ball as much recently so there are some question marks about this spot. German seems to be in a strong K spot with some danger to a blowup happening as the A’s are driving the baseball right now. Bailey gives it up more to RHBs than LHBs this season so that can play into the Yankees lineup as they offer a TON of power from the right side of the plate.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Gio Urshela, Cameron Maybin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last 6 games
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Mark Canha
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson
GPP Note: 22 extra-base hits over the last 6 games
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers (-320)
Sean Reid-Foley vs Clayton Kershaw
All about Kershaw for me here, to go along with the power bats of the Dodgers. Going to see a lot of ownership on the Dodgers and for a good reason, to be honest. With a lot of Kershaw ownership, I would make a hedge mini-stack of the Blue Jays because of their ability to hit HRs and his increased HR rate. I most likely will only be using one-offs from TOR in spots to differentiate some of my chalkier stacks.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 over the last 5 games
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .356 and an OPS of 1.017 over the last 6 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
