Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw has been on a roll as of late, scoring at least 25 Draftkings points in four straight games. He gets a great matchup here with the San Diego Padres. Many people view the Padres as a bad offense, which they are not, they have quite a bit of talent. The one thing they do have is a lot of strikeouts, however. The Padres are striking out 25.9% of the time this season which is well above league average. Kershaw also has a 25.3% strikeout rate on the season. San Diego has an implied run total of just 3.3 here in a pitchers ballpark, Kershaw is my favorite spend-up option on the slate.
- Michael Pineda – Pineda gets one of the best matchups possible for a right-handed pitcher. He travels to Miami to face the Marlins in this massive pitchers park. Just last night Jose Berrios shut this Marlins team down with 40.55 Draftkings points. Pineda doesn’t have the same talent as Berrios, but it just proves just how bad this team can be from an offensive standpoint at home. The Marlins are striking out at a 24.2% rate on the season to go along with Pineda’s 21.9% k rate. Pineda has been in good form and draws a great matchup here, I like him a lot as an expensive SP2 or a cheaper SP1.
- Andrew Cashner – Many people view Andrew Cashner as a gas can, but I am a guy that really does not. People will stack against him here, so I think going with him as an SP2 option isn’t a bad idea. At $5.4k on Draftkings he really doesn’t need to do a whole lot to hit value and he helps you do what you like on offense. In one matchup with the Rays, this season Cashner scored 15.7 Draftkings points. If he can do that again here we are sitting in great shape. I’m a fan of paying down at SP2, and I think this is a good opportunity to do so.
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Full Count:
Minnesota Twins (-170) @ Miami Marlins (+156)
I just touched on Michael Pineda as a nice starting pitcher option in this matchup. He’s an especially good option on this early slate where there are fewer options. The Twins were able to get some runs across last night but run into Yamamoto who has been surprisingly good this season until his last start. I don’t play pitchers against this Twins offense even in Marlins Park. That said, I don’t know that I’ll be setting out to stack the Twins either, I just don’t love stacking in this park but they are very talented and maybe the park keeps ownership down.
MIN 5-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: Rosario and Polanco are my favorite plays here because of their prices and they help make this team a little easier to stack. They’re not my favorite stack on the early slate but they are definitely in play.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I will have a good amount of Pineda here, no thanks on the Marlins other than sources of value.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies
This is an interesting spot for the Giants, Jake Arrieta really has not been good this season, but this team was just shut down by Vincent Velasquez last night. Given the prices on the Giants bats, I will certainly have a few stacks here combined with some one-offs. I loved the Phillies last night and they let me down, I’m going right back to the well against Dereck Rodriguez.
SFG 5-star plays: Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski
4-star plays: Pablo Sandoval, Alex Dickerson
GPP Note: The prices on these guys have finally come down and I think they’re in a good spot here against Arrieta who has not been great this season.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto (DK), Scott Kingery, Jean Segua, Maikel Franco
GPP Note: The prices have been raised on these guys for this matchup against Rodriguez. I still love them here and they are my favorite stack on the early slate. Don’t be afraid to wrap it with guys like Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco.
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
New York Mets (-157) @ Chicago White Sox (+145)
Zach Wheeler takes the mound after riding the trading block for the past week or so. He gets a nice matchup against the White Sox and is probably the safest SP1 option on the slate. I do like Pineda taking the savings, but Wheeler has just been on a roll this season going for at least 20 Draftkings points in four of his last five games. The Mets matchup with one of the White Sox higher pitching prospects in Dylan Cease. Cease has struggled over his past two starts but gets a decent matchup here. I likely won’t get there as a pitching option because I do like the Mets here a little.
NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso
4-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Wilson Ramos (DK)
GPP Note: The Mets will fall behind the Twins and Phillies and maybe the Giants in terms of stacking on this slate even though they have an implied run total over five. I just need to see it first and their prices are way up.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Just one-offs against Wheeler here who should be a pretty popular pitching option on this early slate.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Oakland Athletics
There hasn’t been a starter announced yet for the Brewers, but I would assume Chase Anderson gets the start here. I love using pitchers in this ballpark because of all foul ball territory and how it can get a guy out of trouble quickly. I don’t hate either Anderson or Homer Bailey as an SP2 option, in fact, you guys know how much I love using Homer Bailey especially now that he’s in this ballpark. I will have some Brewers stacks here because they will be incredibly easy to stack tomorrow due to the call-up of Trent Grisham. Grisham is $2.1k on Draftkings and Craig Counsell has said he will be in the lineup tomorrow. Grisham is probably their top prospect now that Hiura has pretty much taken himself out of prospect territory. He has serious power combining for 26 home runs between AAA and AA this season. Lock him into your Brewers stacks.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Trent Grisham, Keston Hiura
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: I don’t love stacking in this ballpark either but they will be super easy to build tomorrow, it’s hard not to like them here.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
GPP Note: I don’t love the Athletics here, a combination of the ballpark and Chase Anderson’s ability to avoid the big inning will keep me off of them for the most part outside of one-offs.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Asher Wojciechowski has taken the world by storm over his past two starts scoring 38 Draftkings points against the Red Sox and 25 against the Angels. He certainly passes the eye-test and I think you can go back to the well against the Blue Jays here. In fact, he has an elite 31% k rate on the season and the Jays are not a team that scares me, he’s a great SP2 option and may end up being chalky. Trent Thornton is a fine option, I don’t like him as a pitcher but anybody against the Orioles warrants some attention.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: I will have a decent amount of Woj here so not a lot of Jays for me
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar
GPP Note: Kind of a meh game for me in terms of offenses come, not a whole lot of interest considering the prices on these guys.
Tampa Bay Rays (+115) @ Boston Red Sox (-125)
Despite the Rays implied total of 5 runs here, I wrote up Andrew Cashner as a decent SP2 option given his price. Cashner isn’t a guy that I stack against because he just seems to figure out how to get out of jams and limit big innings. That said I will be sure to have a hedge stack of the Rays if I come in overweight on Cashner. Brendan McKay has a lot of talent, but I’m just not going to use him against this Red Sox offense in Fenway Park.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Ji-man Choi, Nate Lowe
GPP Note: I like Andrew Cashner here, but there are some nice one-off plays
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, Sam Travis
GPP Note: This team is very hard to stack give their prices, but an implied run total of 5.6 runs is hard to ignore.
Houston Astros (-184) @ Cleveland Indians (+174)
If you have the money, get Gerrit Cole, plain and simple. The guy is pitching lights out as of late, but I do think I will end up taking the savings on Kershaw. That said, Cole is an elite play in all formats. Danny Salazar has been activated from the 60-day IL, so he will be watched closely here and likely be on a pitch count, so I’ll wait and see here. The Astros do have an implied run total of 5 right now, so I think they’re certainly usable.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley, George Springer, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: This lineup is so lethal that it’s hard not to like them against any pitcher, they are a top tier stack on this slate.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: There’s no reason to target guys against Gerrit Cole
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Chicago Cubs (+117) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-126)
The Jon Lester blow-up game is coming, I PROMISE. Many of you know that I think he has probably the most overrated pitcher in baseball and I will certainly be stacking the Cardinals in a few lineups just out of principle. That said the Cardinals have not put up a lot of runs this year but have been coming around as of late, as Paul Goldschmidt has begun to get hot. I don’t love stacking against Jack Flaherty because I like his stuff and just think there are better routes on this slate.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Jayson Heyward
GPP Note: Just one-offs and mini-stacks here against Jack Flaherty for me.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Jose Martinez
GPP Note: I won’t be going wild here, but I do think a blow-up game from Lester is coming and I will certainly not watch as a team beats up on Lester in a spot that I’ve waited on all season. The Cardinals are an elite GPP stack for me, but a tier two stack in other formats.
Cincinnati Reds (+140) @ Atlanta Braves (-152)
I really want to go the Max Fried route here. I love the kid’s talent and think he has a bright future. The Reds have an implied run total under 4 here and are losing Yasiel Puig and Scooter Gennet from their lineup. I will definitely get to Fried in GPP’s as a pivot off of Cashner, I’m just not sure if I’ll go there in cash or not. DeSclafani has been pretty good lately but the Braves offense is scary, I would rather take the big savings and go with Fried on this one.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Suarez crushes lefties, otherwise I think I’ll get to a good amount of Max Fried here.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: The Braves aren’t my favorite stack but they’re right there with the Cardinals and Dodgers in my tier two stacks
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San Diego Padres (+180) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-196)
I touched on Clayton Kershaw earlier and given the discount from Gerrit Cole, he is my favorite SP on this slate. That said, I won’t be getting to any of the Padres here. The Dodgers are a different story, they always go under-owned at home and get a matchup with Joey Lucchesi who is averaging just 10 Draftkings points per game in two games against the Dodgers this season. I will have the Dodgers in tier two with the Cardinals in terms of stacks, but they have some elite one-off plays.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Clayton Kershaw is a core pitching option for me
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, AJ Pollock, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Tyler White, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner
GPP Note: They are on the verge of being a tier-one stack, but I respect Lucchesi’s stuff to hold them down just a tad.
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As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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