Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw struck out 10 in 6 innings against Miami earlier this season and I could see something similar here. He is the obvious cash game option at this point.
- Wade Miley – Miley is another obvious cash gameplay that I may end up fading in GPPs. He gets to take on a very weak White Sox lineup that is still without it’s most dangerous overall hitter. His floor should be really solid thanks to the W that should be on layaway. He has the second-best VKSCORE, behind Kershaw.
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer surprisingly has the second-best KSCORE on the day. That intrigues me and makes me move him up my list for GPP purposes because of his upside, even in a tougher match-up. I think his ownership is going to be lower than it should be.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Houston Astros (-300) vs Chicago White Sox
Wade Miley vs Ross Detwiler
I don’t think very highly of Detwiler and the Astros lineup is long and dangerous. They should be one of the top stacks on the slate as the game has a total sitting at 10.5 runs. Miley should be near the top of the list for cash game options but I can understand the fade in GPPs if you feel like his ceiling is limited now that his price has been on the rise all season long.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Stack the Astros every which way. This lineup is ROLLING right now.
CHW 5-star plays: Tim Anderson
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, James McCann
GPP Note: The White Sox stole one last night but I don’t see that happening here. I can see a hedge stack against your Miley ownership since a few White Sox have solid enough BvP history to be considered.
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees (-240)
Dylan Bundy vs J.A. Happ
Bundy is definitely the Orioles best pitcher overall and could do some limiting of the Yankees dangerous offense. With that being said, the game has a ridiculous total sitting at 11 runs. The bad thing for Bundy is that he gives up more power to RHBs and the Yankees RHBs have been on a roll recently. As far as the Orioles go, I really like a small stack of the three guys below as they are a combined 23 for 53 with 9 HRs and 5 doubles against Happ in their careers.
BAL 5-star plays: Renato Nunez
4-star plays: Hanser Alberto, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Over the last 8 days, BAL pitching has given up 26 HRs
NYY 5-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Just like the Astros, stack away. Top to bottom, backward forward, inside out.
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals (-155)
Trevor Bauer vs Stephen Strasburg
This is going to be an excellent pitcher’s duel, in my eyes. I know Bauer can struggle and there is always a chance that a one-off or two-man mini-stack of WAS bats works out for GPPs. I am a little shocked to see a total sitting at 9 as of this morning. Bauer looked really strong in his last start and we know what Strasburg is capable of doing.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: CIN has hit 19 HRs over the last 6 games
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games
Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
Cole Hamels vs Aaron Nola
I love this pitching match-up as well. Hamels getting to pitching in Philly again after all of the success he has had there in his career plus Nola getting to pitch at home, where he has been far better this season. Last night’s game was a solid pitcher’s duel and this one should be as well. I am going to have some stacks of each offense because of how dangerous each of them can be and with the park being a hitter’s park. If I had to pick a side for bats, it’s going to be the Cubs side.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: The 12 HRs the Cubs have hit over the last 6 games have been by 5 guys.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jean Segura, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .641 over the last 6 games
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
Kolby Allard vs Sean Reid-Foley
This game has a total sitting at 10.5 runs as of this morning. There is a good chance I end up with a lot of game stacks here as I think both offenses could get us 6+ today with a few HRs. I know TEX isn’t exactly destroying the baseball but that could change here and TOR is always dangerous with the young lineup they roll out there.
TEX 5-star plays: Willie Calhoun
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .582 over the last 6 games
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: TOR has a team ISO of .292 over the last 7 games
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians
Brian Johnson vs Shane Bieber
Brian Johnson is getting TORCHED by RHBs at the MLB level so far this season. Those bats are 26 for 60 against him. CLE is going to have a BUNCH of RHBs in the lineup and I could see them putting up 5+ runs in the first couple of innings here. For the Boston side, I can see a lot of people bypassing them based on Bieber’s impressive numbers this season. While I can’t argue his ability, I think avoiding BOS altogether is a mistake. A couple of guys have hit Bieber well and a couple of others are hot at the plate right now.
BOS 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Brock Holt
GPP Note: BOS bats are always dangerous and I want to go back, even against a VERY tough Shane Bieber
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: I think CLE should garner a bunch of ownership at this point
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Seattle Mariners (-140) vs Detroit Tigers
Marco Gonzales vs Edwin Jackson
This game is sitting at a total of 10 and I will be honest, I don’t know what to think. Both SPs can get lit up, the problem is both offenses are extremely weak. I probably won’t have much exposure to this game overall, but if building a ton of lineups I will use both SPs and both offenses in some spots. I lean towards Gonzales as having the better DFS day, with a small stack of SEA possibly denting the scoreboard.
SEA 5-star plays: Domingo Santana, Kyle Seager
4-star plays: Tom Murphy, Mallex Smith
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .595 over the last 5 games
DET 5-star plays: Brandon Dixon, Jordy Mercer
4-star plays: John Hicks, Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: Gonzales isn’t the best SP but the Tigers offense is pretty blah overall.
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Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
Kyle Gibson vs Gio Gonzalez
I will personally be at this game so I am rooting for a 9-8 Twins win or a 1-0 Twins win. Either way, I want the Twins picking up the W here! Both SPs are capable of quieting bats but they are also capable of getting smacked around early and often. The Twins are deadly against LHPs and the Brewers have some impressive LHBs that can do damage to RHPs. I will have multiple game stacks because the law of DFS is to ALWAYS stack the games you are attending.
MIN 5-star plays: Miguel Sano, CJ Cron
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Jonathan Schoop, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Twins bats have cooled recently but they still lead baseball in HRs
MIL 5-star plays: Trent Grisham, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Ben Gamel, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: MIL bats have been cool for a bit, but this could be a sneaky bust out spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-290) vs Miami Marlins
Clayton Kershaw vs Elieser Hernandez
This game has a total sitting at 8 runs this morning. That basically tells me from my crazy, DFS driven math, that the Dodgers are going to score 7+ runs today! (Not accurate according to IRT’s but I like my DFS math instead). Hernandez is giving up an HR every 17ish ABs on the season and that equates to around 2 HRs allowed per 9 innings. The Dodgers really dented the scoreboard last night and that is going to drive their ownership even higher today.
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Just an OPS of .684 over the last 5 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team average of .310 over the last 6 games
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (-135)
Steven Matz vs Dallas Keuchel
This game has a total set at 10 runs and the line keeps creeping towards the Mets as of early this morning. I think this game needs our attention from a hitter standpoint. Both teams have a bunch of guys that can smash LHPs. The Braves started hot last night and then cooled as the game went on, which is something that scares me the next day. Teams can get cold instantly and while it isn’t something I have studied closely, it is something that could take a few innings to break but it also could take a game or two. I will be stacking this game but I don’t have the same confidence I had in Tuesday’s game.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
4-star plays: Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .271 (12 HRs) over the last 5 games
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Johan Camargo, Tyler Flowers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 (13 HRs) over the last 6 games
St Louis Cardinals (-125) vs Kansas City Royals
Dakota Hudson vs Brad Keller
I am REALLY shocked to see this game sitting with a total of 10 runs. Last night’s game was a big pitcher’s duel and I really think this game could be the same. I know Flaherty is definitely better than Hudson but the Royals offense, overall, just isn’t dangerous. The Cardinals offense isn’t exactly on fire at the moment either. If I do go with bats in this game in my builds, it will be as one-offs and mini-stacks.
STL 5-star plays: Dexter Fowler
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Just 22 runs scored over the last 7 days
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: The above trio has hit 12 of the team’s 15 HRs over the last 7 days
Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) vs Colorado Rockies
Robbie Ray vs Kyle Freeland
This game has a lot of solid BvP going on so I am going to gladly go back to the offenses. The total has made it to 12.5 so far and I could see it getting to 13 before first pitch. Robbie Ray is a known name for sure but he has struggled against the Rockies in his career. Ray picks up a lot of K’s against the Rockies but in 22.1 innings this season, he has allowed 37 base runners for the Rockies. Allowing that many baserunners are a dangerous game to be playing, especially in Coors.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: ARI bats really busted out last night against Hoffman. Different kind of SP today but one that they have smacked around this season already.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Ian Desmond
GPP Note: COL pitchers have allowed 17 HRs and an OPS of .968 over the last 7 games
Oakland Athletics (-115) vs San Francisco Giants
Homer Bailey vs Tyler Beede
With a total sitting at 9, I have to like some offense here, even in a big ballpark. If this game was played in a hitter’s park I would have to assume the total would be around 10.5 with these two SPs going. The Giants offense just doesn’t interest me too much but guys like Gennette and Belt have some solid BvP. The A’s bats are where I want to go in this one against a solid but unspectacular Beede.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Scored 23 runs over the last 5 games with 50 Ks
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Scooter Gennett
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last 6 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Chris Archer vs Dillon Peters
Last night’s game turned into a slugfest and while I think we could see some runs in this one, I have to wonder if this game leans slightly towards the SPs. The total is sitting at 9.5 and the line has crept even stronger to LA to this point. I always fall for the Archer trap and while he has the solid ability, I don’t know that this is the spot for him. The Angels just do not strike out all that much and they are very good at getting on base and when that happens, Archer tends to give up some bigger innings. The Pirates offense seems to be heating up with a few guys hitting the ball extremely well (Bell and Reynolds are rolling).
PIT 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Pay attention to the Angels, they may start an opener so that could change their order/lineup slightly
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Justin Upton, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .638 over the last 6 games
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres
Andrew Kittredge vs Cal Quantrill
If we get official word that Beeks will follow Kittredge, I have some more interest in SD than I do at this exact moment. They have a lineup that can do a ton of damage to LHPs. I always stack SD and I will be doing so again as I keep falling for the Tatis Jr, Machado, and Renfroe trio. The Rays are a team that I don’t necessarily love to stack but they keep putting up runs. I wish Brandon Lowe would hurry up and return because he was one of my favorites to mini-stack with Meadows or Pham.
TB 5-star plays: Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Jalen Beeks should follow Kittredge in this spot
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 (28 extra-base hits) over the last 7 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
