Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Clayton Kershaw – SCRATCHED AND MOVED TO WEDNESDAY. REPLACED BY DUSTIN MAY (MAY IS GOING TO BE UBER POPULAR!)
- Matthew Boyd – I have a VERY strong feeling that Boyd gets overlooked at over $10K on DK tonight. The match-up is absolutely ideal and he has a strong K upside in a better match-up than Sale. Grienke is going to be much more popular than Boyd will be for just a few hundred more. Boyd all day in GPPs for me tonight!
- Madison Bumgarner – Bumgarner pitching at home is NOT an $8600 (DK) pitcher. His numbers are extremely dominant plus the OAK bats are cold, outside of a couple of guys. The park is a huge bonus to pitchers in general and I think Bumgarner has a chance at a 7 inning, 10 strikeout type game in this spot. Definitely going to be a Core SP on my sheet later today.
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Full Count Breakdown:
Houston Astros (-300) vs Chicago White Sox – Game 1
Zack Greinke vs Dylan Cease
As a team, over the last 7 days, the Astros have an OPS of 1.082 as they have hit 13 HRs in 5 games. I understand the prospect status of Cease but he is giving up hits and he walks a lot of guys. Those two things are recipes for failure against a team that doesn’t strike out very much. Greinke got the W in his Astros debut but he didn’t look very good. He allowed 5 runs over 6 innings and managed to strikeout just 2 guys. I think he bounces back a bit here against a weak lineup.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Stack the Astros every which way. This lineup is ROLLING right now.
CHW 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Zero desire to use much from the White Sox against Greinke. Use the above two guys as one-offs as they are the hottest hitters on the White Sox.
Houston Astros (-310) vs Chicago White Sox – Game 2
Gerrit Cole vs Ivan Nova
Game 2 brings us more of the same for the Astros. They are an even bigger favorite in this game as Cole should reach double figures in strikeouts against the weak White Sox lineup. This doubleheader could be ugly. We HAVE to make sure we pay attention to lineups for both games because we definitely know that some guys will sit out/rest for one of the two.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Nova’s splits are pretty equal this season with slight power lean-to LHBs. STACK AWAY!
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, James McCann
GPP Note: Again, just one-offs from the White Sox as they have a couple of guys with solid BvP.
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees (-300)
John Means vs Domingo German
The third game in the article for today and the third game with a favorite of -300 or greater. The Yankees LOVE themselves some BAL pitching on the season. They have hit 59 HRs against BAL this season. That total has come in 17 games. This BAL pitching staff has already allowed the 3rd most HRs in a season, in MLB history. There are 43 games left on the schedule for them to pitch in.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Over the last 7 days, BAL pitching has given up 25 HRs
NYY 5-star plays: Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Cameron Maybin, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Just like the Astros, stack away. Top to bottom, backward forward, inside out.
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals (-110)
Alex Wood vs Joe Ross
This game has a total set at 10.5 runs and with the way that a number of bats are swinging it right now, I have to lean towards the over and seeing some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Both SPs struggle with the opposite-handed batters so we could see some very LH (CIN) and RH (WAS) dominant lineups. Aquino is on another level right now (setting MLB record for HRs in his first 12 games). Ride the hot streak or fade it, that is going to be an important question.
CIN 5-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Eugenio Suarez
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Tucker Barnhart
GPP Note: CIN has hit 19 HRs over the last 6 games
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Victor Robles, Gerardo Parra
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last 6 games
Chicago Cubs (-130) vs Philadelphia Phillies
Jose Quintana vs Jason Vargas
This game features two teams on the opposite side of the hitting numbers over the last week. The Cubs are displaying some power while the Phillies have gone ice-cold (outside of Harper and Dickerson). This game does have a total of 10 runs so we definitely should see some offense here as the Cubs are a small road favorite. I am going to stack both sides of this game, with more ownership on the Cubs side. With how PHI is struggling and how the Cubs can struggle vs LHP, both SPs are in play for GPPs.
CHC 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Ian Happ, David Bote
GPP Note: The 11 HRs the Cubs have hit over the last 6 games have been by 5 guys.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Corey Dickerson, Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .641 over the last 6 games
Texas Rangers (-135) vs Toronto Blue Jays
Lance Lynn vs Thomas Pannone
Lynn’s strikeout numbers have increased every month of the season. He continues to get stronger and I was really shocked to see him stick with TEX beyond the trade deadline. He is somebody that a LOT of times could have used down the stretch. He has been absolutely filthy against RH heavy lineups this season and guess what, TOR gets very RH’d. I love Lynn but I also really like TOR bats based on how dangerous they can be. The TOR team ISO over the last 7 games is extremely impressive.
TEX 5-star plays: Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Danny Santana
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .582 over the last 6 games
TOR 5-star plays: Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Danny Jansen, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: TOR has a team ISO of .292 over the last 7 games
Boston Red Sox (-115) vs Cleveland Indians
Chris Sale vs Mike Clevinger
On the surface, this game should be a pitcher’s duel. There are some sneaky bats in this spot as there are some solid BvP numbers along with recent 7-day trends. The total sits at just 8.5 runs so we don’t need to get too crazy here but I think a stack of either team could pay dividends in GPPs from an ownership standpoint.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: 31 Extra base hits over the last 7 games, surprisingly strong BvP vs Clevinger
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: The above two are a combined 18 for 45 vs Sale
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Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers (-155)
Yusei Kikuchi vs Matthew Boyd
I want nothing to do with the punchless Mariners team but I do have a bunch of interest in the Tigers’ side. Mostly my interest is going to be in Boyd to go with a one-off or mini-stack of the Tigers bats. We know that the Tigers are a pretty bad team overall but they do have a few bats that profile well in this spot. This game has a 9 run total, so there should be some offense somewhere.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Lopes, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .595 over the last 5 games
DET 5-star plays: Brandon Dixon, Jordy Mercer
4-star plays: Travis Demeritte, Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: Sneaky stack spot for me. The Tigers aren’t good but Kikuchi has gotten blown up before
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Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Martin Perez vs Chase Anderson
This is an interesting game as both teams are a bit cold on the offensive side of the ball but they both offer strong upside. Both SPs can give it up to RHBs this season and they are both pitching towards their better split. Perez has been better overall on the road while Anderson has been better at home overall. As of early Tuesday morning, this game does not have a line.
MIN 5-star plays: Miguel Sano, Max Kepler
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Twins bats have cooled recently but they still lead baseball in HRs
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain
GPP Note: MIL bats are cold as well, with Hiura the only guy with an ISO over .188 across the last 6 games
Los Angeles Dodgers (-270) vs Miami Marlins
Dustin May vs Jordan Yamamoto
EDIT: Dustin May is starting over Kershaw. He is very cheaply priced around the industry and will be EXTREMELY popular. I can’t argue starting your cash builds with him.
This game is all about the Dodgers, even with a total of just 8 runs. Yamamoto has struggled recently and the Dodgers got to him for 5 runs in 4 innings earlier. The Marlins have some hot bats but Kershaw absolutely dominated them earlier this season and he has been extremely dominant against the roster in their careers. Kershaw is easily going to be my top cash game option.
LAD 5-star plays: Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Just an OPS of .684 over the last 5 games
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson
GPP Note: Team average of .310 over the last 6 games
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New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves (-130)
Zack Wheeler vs Max Fried
When I initially saw the SP match-up I was intrigued by them and then I dug into the hitters and their recent numbers plus BvP numbers. I want the bats in this game as the total is sitting at 9.5 runs as of this morning. There are some STRONG BvP (mostly ATL side) paired with very strong L7 statcast numbers. I will be game stacking this one, multiple ways.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .271 (12 HRs) over the last 5 games
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Brian McCann, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .226 (13 HRs) over the last 6 games
St Louis Cardinals (-200) vs Kansas City Royals
Jack Flaherty vs Glenn Sparkman
I was shocked to see this game sitting with a total set at 9.5. Flaherty is a nasty SP but he is taking on a handful of hot bats from KC while Sparkman is below average but he is taking on a team that has been pretty cold from runs scored perspective. I am going to lean towards the pitching here but will be making a stack of each offense as I know what STL is capable of and what KC has been doing the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Just 22 runs scored over the last 7 days
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: The above trio has hit 12 of the team’s 15 HRs over the last 7 days
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies (-125)
Zac Gallen vs Jeff Hoffman
EDIT: Jeff Hoffman has replaced Jon Gray. BUMP to ARI bats, especially the RH ones
I am really intrigued by the SP match-up here even though this game is in Coors. Gray has a strong ability and can go out and shut just about anybody down on any given day. Gallen has been EXTREMELY impressive so far in his brief MLB career. He has been absolutely dominant vs both LH and RH hitters. He does lean slightly towards reverse splits so far. While I said I am intrigued by the SP match-up, the offenses are still the main attraction here. ARI has solid BvP history against Gray.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
4-star plays: David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Marte-Escobar-Peralta-Lamb are a combined 24 for 63 vs Gray
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Yonder Alonso
GPP Note: COL pitchers have allowed 17 HRs and an OPS of .968 over the last 7 games
Oakland Athletics vs San Francisco Giants (-115)
Brett Anderson vs Madison Bumgarner
This game has a total set at 8 runs as of this morning and I have a feeling it will creep towards 7.5 by the time first pitch happens. With that being said, I do like a couple of bats as one-off options as well as a mini-stack from SF. I absolutely LOVE Madison Bumgarner against a struggling OAK offense. He has been FAR more dominating when pitching at home this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chad Pinder, Stephen Piscotty
GPP Note: Scored 23 runs over the last 5 games with 50 Ks
SF 5-star plays: Kevin Pillar
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last 6 games
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels (-175)
Trevor Williams vs Griffin Canning
This game features a few bats that are swinging it really well and then a bunch of bats that are ice-cold. The Pirates bats are a bit hotter than the Angels but Canning is a better pitcher than Williams is. Canning has reverse splits which make me think that he shuts down the Pirates but Reynolds and Bell are swinging really strong sticks. Williams gets knocked around a LOT by LHBs but the LHBs of the Angels is cold but he does give up more HR power to RHBs this season. I am going to end up with a decent amount of Canning as I believe in his splits but I will be using just a few bats as one-offs in GPP lineups.
PIT 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings
GPP Note: The above trio has hit 7 of the team’s 10 HRs over the last 6 games
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team OPS of just .638 over the last 6 games
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Tampa Bay Rays (-120) vs San Diego Padres
Brendan McKay vs Eric Lauer
I am very interested in this game as the late-night “hammer”. Getting to watch McKay pitch and hit in the same game is going to be fun and going to bring up a lot of “Do I get points for his hitting?” questions. The answer is you do not but that is OK. The Rays are a much weaker team against LHP but Lauer has been pretty bad this season, especially recently. I think a TB stack makes a bunch of sense for GPP purposes. The Padres are picking up extra-base hits over the last week and are averaging 6 runs per game. I was shocked to see this game with a total set at 8.
TB 5-star plays: Avisail Garcia
4-star plays: Matt Duffy, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 vs LHP this season
SD 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 (28 extra-base hits) over the last 7 games
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
