Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Justin Verlander – Verlander draws the best spot of all the SPs on the day. He is a MASSIVE favorite against a very weak BAL lineup. His offense should get him runs against the team that is on pace to shatter the HRs allowed record for the season. No need to look elsewhere for your cash builds.
- Luis Castillo – I love the GPP upside against a dangerous Cubs lineup for Castillo. His ceiling is extremely high with his ability to rack up strikeouts. Shockingly, his numbers are much stronger when pitching at home this season.
- Mike Foltynewicz – I was VERY impressed with the way that Folty threw early against the Twins. He should be able to carry that over against a team that he has done very well against in his career. The Marlins might have the weakest overall lineup in all of baseball. Folty should pick up the W in this game, thanks to some hot hitters on the Braves and a not-so-good SP on the mound for the Marlins
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Full Count Breakdown:
New York Yankees (-154) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Masahiro Tanaka vs Trent Thornton
The Yankees are absolutely destroying baseballs right now and the Blue Jays have some dangerous, young ballplayers in their lineup. This game should be exciting as Tanaka has struggled over his last 6+ starts. The Yankees are going to find themselves near the top of my stack list on my Coaches Notes. Thankfully there are enough Yankees on a roll that you can get creative with your stacks to hedge some ownership numbers.
NYY 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Brett Gardner
GPP Note: Yankees are striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
TOR 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio
GPP Note: TOR is striking out a 25% rate vs RHP
Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox (-156)
Patrick Sandoval vs Andrew Cashner
Sandoval is an interesting option against a VERY strong Red Sox team. I most likely won’t be on him but if I end up with a lot of BOS exposure, I will have some hedge shares of him. He has really strong K numbers in the minors and prior to appearing in the PCL (extreme hitters league), he had been strong across the board. The Angels should put up some runs against a struggling Cashner. He has pretty strong reverse splits on the season so guys like Trout, Upton, and Pujols are in solid GPP spots.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Justin Upton
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: Angels are striking out at a 20% rate vs RHP
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Sam Travis, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at under a 22% rate vs LHP
Philadelphia Phillies (-108) @ San Francisco Giants
Jake Arrieta vs Conner Menez
I am interested in the PHI side but not with a TON of confidence. Seems like whenever we want to be on Arrieta he finds a way to disappoint. I generally prefer PHI against RHPs but I can make an exception here. The stack should be lower owned due to the ballpark being so large. The total is set at 9 runs, which does seem high for a game in SF but it is the Sunday Night game.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Jean Segura
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at a 22% rate vs LHP
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Kevin Pillar, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
Atlanta Braves (-200) @ Miami Marlins
Mike Foltynewicz vs Hector Noesi
Noesi has been a reverse splits at the MLB level throughout his career. That is a dangerous thing against the power that ATL can throw at him from either side of the plate. Folty looked strong against the Twins in his last start before hitting a wall a bit towards the end. The strikeout numbers were there in that game. The game has a total of just 8.5 runs which means MIA is expected to be one of the lowest-scoring teams on the day.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Isan Diaz, Brian Anderson
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP
Kansas City Royals (-122) @ Detroit Tigers
Jakob Junis vs Daniel Norris
The Royals have some solid numbers against Norris in their careers so I think they end up one of my favorite lower owned stacks on the slate. Junis is certainly in play for me as the Tigers struggle vs RHP and the lineup just seems to get weaker and weaker (Castellanos traded, JaCoby Jones injured). Pay attention to the Tigers lineup as we could see guys like Mercer and Cabrera rest on a Sunday.
KCR 5-star plays: Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Cheslor Cuthbert, Hunter Dozier, Alex Gordon
GPP Note: KC is striking out at just over a 24% rate vs LHP
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: DET is striking out at over a 26% rate vs RHP
Houston Astros (-360) @ Baltimore Orioles
Justin Verlander vs Asher Wojciechowski
Well, the Astros just put a pounding on the Orioles on Saturday. They managed to put up just 23 runs against the staff of Baltimore. They are going to be extremely popular on Sunday after that display. I am tempted to fade them but I am not sure I can do that thanks to the number of HRs that BAL pitchers are giving up this season. Verlander is in an absolute smash spot. Do not question it, he is the top cash game option for me on this slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at under a 19% rate vs RHP
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP
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Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins (-155)
Aaron Civale vs Jose Berrios
Civale has been impressive in his 2 starts at the MLB level this season but he hasn’t faced an offense like the Twins’ yet. This game is sitting at a 9.5 total which surprises me a bit with Berrios on the mound for the Twins. Berrios has 22 Ks in 18.2 innings against CLE this year and has allowed just 4 earned runs in those innings. I most likely am going to fade this game completely as the Indians offense is dangerous enough to force me to downgrade Berrios, even with him pitching at home.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at just over a 21% rate vs RHP
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Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Minor vs Jordan Lyles
This game does not have a total as of midnight so it adds to my thought that this game could see a bunch of runs or it could see next to nothing as far as runs go. I really like Minor and he has made huge steps in returning to be a strong SP at the MLB level. An LHP against the Brewers can definitely have success, especially if Yelich is held out yet again. The Rangers are a team that should hit Lyles hard but they don’t have very good career numbers against him.
TEX 5-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Elvis Andrus
4-star plays: Danny Santana, Willie Calhoun
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at a 26% rate vs RHP
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Manny Pina, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just under a 24% rate vs LHP
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets (-196)
Anibal Sanchez vs Jacob deGrom
I am definitely on the Mets side in a game with a total set at just 7.5 runs. The Nationals are in a tough spot against deGrom and outside of Eaton and Adams (BvP plays), I don’t want any pieces unless I am building a GPP dart/hedge lineup and stacking them. The Mets offense is on a roll right now so they DEFINITELY need to make your stack list. Sanchez is far from a terrible SP so there is going to be some risk with a Mets stack but the 19 HRs over the last 7 have me VERY interested.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Adam Eaton, Matt Adams
GPP Note: WAS is striking out a 22% rate vs RHP
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, JD Davis, Wilson Ramos
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at just under a 23% rate vs RHP
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Oakland Athletics (-129) @ Chicago White Sox
Chris Bassitt vs Lucas Giolito
This game, surprisingly, has a total set at 9 runs. I am very much leaning towards the under here as I like both SPs for GPP purposes and I think Bassitt could sneak into Cash builds on DK. Bassitt did strike out 6 in 6 shutout innings against the White Sox earlier this season. Both SPs in this game leans towards having reverse splits.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at a 22% rate vs RHP
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: White Sox are striking out at a 27% rate vs RHP
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (-140)
Jon Lester vs Luis Castillo
The Cubs seem to be on a slide right now while the Reds seem to be finding a groove. Castillo has a massive upside for us in this spot as the Cubs can get K happy. Lester has had some rough outings recently and this could be another rough one. Aquino just hit 3 HRs against the Cubs on Saturday so you know he is going to be popular. If the price is right, I can’t argue it but a fade may pay dividends in GPPs if he falls back to earth (7 HRs in his first 10 games).
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Nicholas Castellanos
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at under a 24% rate vs RHP
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Aristides Aquino
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 21% rate vs LHP
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals (-194)
Steven Brault vs Miles Mikolas
Brault was smacked around hard against STL earlier this season as he allowed 7 runs in 5.1 innings, across 2 appearances. In this 5.1 innings, he allowed 10 hits and gave up 4 walks. I like the idea of stacking against him here as he could certainly be blown up by an RH heavy lineup. As far as PIT goes, I will only use the two guys below as one-offs in my GPP builds (strong BvP numbers).
PIT 5-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
4-star plays: Adam Frazier
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at a 19% rate vs RHP
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Martinez
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: STL is striking out at a 22% rate vs LHP
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Ryan Yarbrough vs Wade LeBlanc
Both of these teams strike out at an extremely high rate vs LHPs. I think both arms are in play for GPP purposes here but I also think there are some bats, mostly on TB, that could pay off in your GPP lineups. The TB lineup should be strong vs LHP, so the high K rate really shocks me at this point. Seattle’s lineup is just weak overall, no matter what hand the pitcher uses. At this point, I feel like SEA would struggle against a slowpitch softball pitcher.
TBR 5-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Avisail Garcia
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: TB is striking out at nearly a 27% rate vs LHP
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Austin Nola, Tim Lopes
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at just under a 27% rate vs LHP
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
German Marquez vs Dinelson Lamet
I think that the Rockies are in a sneaky spot here. As much as I love Lamet’s ability, I have some worries about his first start after a big increase in pitch totals. He had been going 5 innings and throwing 80-85ish pitches per start in his return from Tommy-John surgery. He jumped up to 7 innings and 104 pitches in his last start. We could see some regression here and the Rockies could take advantage. With that said, I do think the SPs are the way to go in this game (especially Marquez).
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: COL is striking out at over a 23% rate vs RHP
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: SD is striking out at under a 27% rate vs RHP
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Mike Leake vs Hyun-Jin Ryu
Ryu has allowed a solo HR and 6 other hits in 13 innings against ARI this season. He is coming off of the IL in this spot and could see him eased back in with Roberts pulling him after 5 innings. That is going to make it really difficult to pay his price for a possible short start. Leake allowed 12 baserunners in 5.1 innings during his ARI debut last week. The Dodgers are going to be EXTREMELY popular in this game.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 20% rate vs LHP
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Will Smith, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Dodgers are striking out at a 21% rate vs RHP
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
