Donuts to Dollars

The GPP/MME playbook is more or less a foundation to build upon for your Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) tournament strategy and mass-multi entry (MME) adventures. The following approach is how I am going to MME the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Hit me up on Twitter  @DFSnDONUTS and you can also find me on YouTube | Twitch  | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching.

MLB DFS Pitching Pool Strategy for MME

Chris Sale has had two games in a row where people paid up for him and were kind of let down. He gave up 8 ER and 2 HR in those 11 IP. Very pedestrian outings by Chris Sale standards. He managed to strike out 18 hitters in those two games and his upside is always there. I am banking on him returning to his dominant self and taking it to the Blue Jays.

Kyle Gibson is in play on both sites but I love him on FanDuel at his super cheap price tag. At just 7.1k he has upside for days. He has scored 55, 30, 24, 52, 4, and 36 in his last 6 starts. I think his floor is solid and his upside is more of a 9.5k player. I don’t get this pricing but I am very happy with it.

Danny Duffy has scored 40, 15, 31, and 39 FanDuel points in his last four starts. He is facing an Indians lineup full of lefties and they’ve also have gone ice cold over the last 10-days of baseball. Duffy could be in line for a quality start and win bonus against a struggling Mike Clevinger.

Eric Lauer is in play on DK only as a nice budget saving arm against the weak Giants lineup. Lauer at just 6.7k doesn’t need much to exceed value and allow the optimizer to plug in a bunch of powerful stacks.

Walker (Texas Ranger) Buehler has an opportunity to bounce back against the Diamondbacks. Vegas clearly thinks he will as Arizona has a minute 3.1 IRT as of Tuesday night. Buehler was absolutely on fire before his last meltdown against the Rockies in Coors Field. I am overlooking that one and I expect him to regress to the mean (positive regression!).

Adam Wainwright is cooking right now and has scored 20.70, 32.60, 13.80, and 23.60 DraftKings points in 4 out of his last 5 starts. At just 8.2k and against the Seattle Mariners weak offense, Adam has plenty of upside at his current price tag.

Single Entry/Satellite GPP Pitchers

I like Kyle Gibson way too much at his price tag and I won’t overlook this on FanDuel. Similar to Joe Musgrove on DraftKings on Tuesday night (darn that rain delay that took him out of the game – he was SHARP with 14 DK points in just 3 IP…), he’s underpriced and has tons of upside.

Tier 1 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams). Daily fantasy sports are not just about being contrarian. A key strategy is to also have contrarian exposure to your plays.

Houston Astros 60-80%

Listen, it’s a massive 14-game slate and we need to plant our flags somewhere. I am not going to get cute here. Peter Lambert is wretched (sorry, Boomer) and has looked outmatched at the MLB level this season. He has given up a 44% hard-hit rate and 94 MPH exit velocity (54% and 96 MPH over last three appearances). This has resulted in 12.2 IP, just 6 K’s, 25 hits, 6 HRs, and 16 ERs! That’s insanely bad on many levels. I have no problem eating the chalk here and just being way overweight on them against the fields’ ownership.

Tier 2 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible. My strategy is to have the volatile stacks paired with the Tier 1 stacks that have a higher success rate.

Colorado Rockies 20-40%

I am going to want some shares of the Rockies because it’s a hot day in Coors Field and Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are facing a left-handed pitcher. My main concern here is that Wade Miley has been pretty decent this season. Since June 3rd, he’s never really turned in a great performance, but he has held opposing teams to 3 ER or less in 4 out of the 5 starts.

Los Angeles Angels 20-40%

Jose Leclerc is opening for Texas in what amounts to a bullpen day. I think this is a challenging bullpen day for the Rangers against a team that rarely strikes out and makes good contact. It’s going to be hot in Texas (of course) and the Angels have one of the more R/L balanced lineups built for battling a bullpen day because it’s a nightmare to try to play sides of the plate using your relievers.

New York Yankees 20-40%

I am apprehensive on putting them in here because they face Jason Vargas (LHP). Yes, you read that correctly. It’s really annoying because I don’t think Vargas is a good pitcher. But he also seems to limit opposing damage every single game. In the month of June, he held every single team he faced (5 starts) to 3 ER or less. In fact, it’s been 11 straight games that Vargas has held opposing teams to 3 ER or less. He did face the Yankees on June 11th, holding them to 3 ER (of course) and got the quality start and win in 6 IP. I think the Yankees break his streak of 11 games, at least they’ll have the best chance to with that powerful RHH lineup they’ll likely roll out.

Atlanta Braves 20-40%

They have a massive 5.8 implied run total at the open against the Phillies right-handed pitcher, Nick Pivetta. In his last two outings, Pivetta tossed 11 IP and struck out just 5 hitters. He walked 6, gave up 16 hits, and was smashed for 4 HR and 10 ER. Yikes. If we go back three starts, his stats look like this: 17.2 IP, 11 K, 8 BB, 24 H, 7 HR, 14 ER

No matter what, he’s in bad form and the Braves finished with the most home runs against right-handed pitching in the month of June.

Boston Red Sox 30-50%

They look like the bats are heating up in a big way. I feel like the London series with the Yankees woke up their bats. Sean Reid-Foley is going to be in trouble in this one and so will whoever comes out in relief.

Honorable Mentions: 

Chicago Cubs could have a nice blow-up spot against a struggling Chris Archer. I just didn’t really like the price tag of their main guys and I think most of their platoon hitters have lower ceilings. They are very cheap though so if you want to add them in for salary relief and also with some upside, go for it.

Pittsburgh Pirates are facing Yu Darvish who is giving up home runs left and right as of late. In his last 4 starts and 24 IP, he has given up 7 HR. The Pirates clearly have some upside right now with a few of their bats hitting the ball very well.

This is my personal strategy to use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer for MLB MME

https://youtu.be/F_JUy91mERY

1. Cut all pitchers out of my player pool that I know I 100% DO NOT WANT

   1. Add in all the pitchers I am okay with the optimizer using my playbook and uncheck all the other pitchers.

2. Identify all teams I want to stack

   1. If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters for MME
   2. If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 160-180%
   3. Leave 20-40% stack exposure to allow the optimizer to fill in some random optimized stacks according to your pitcher pool to have some unbiased lineups

3. Prepare my 150 entry settings

   1. 3 uniques
   2. tournament mode
   3. DFS Army points
   4. Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
   5. Maximum exposure cap of 60% is how I roll with it. The higher the exposure cap the more “all-in” you will be on a player or two. Sometimes when I feel great about my pitching pool or stacking tiers I will run it at 80-100%.
   6. Set random stack setting to 4-3 for FanDuel and 5-2 for DraftKings and CHECK “PRIORITIZE LINEUPS”
4. Run the optimizer
   1. Look at the batters used in the stacks. Did I create 100 Houston lineups and only get 5 George Springers? Okay, use the like/love/adore buttons or boost his projection until I get more of him. Did I get 50 out of 50 Boston stacks with Jackie Bradley and no J.D. Martinez? Boost Martinez and potentially use the dislike buttons on Bradley until he’s a bit lower and Martinez is involved.
   2. You have to tinker a bit to get the higher upside guys sometimes ^^^
5. Re-run the optimizer until you get what you’re looking for
   1. Go watch Netflix until the games are over and your daily fantasy sports entries are final
   2. Make a plate of chips and salsa, too
      I slapped this video together during the kiddos’ nap time to show you the ease of use with the DFS Army optimizer. I hope it helps seeing it on video in conjunction with the article

Closing

I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
Twitter me @DFSnDONUTS