ALL STARS IN THE YEAR OF THE RABBIT BALL
Are you suffering from MLB DFS withdrawal? Never fear! Your Showdown strategy expert pulled an all-nighter to bring you All Star Game Showdown tips that you won’t find anywhere else.
PITCHERS
1 – Appearances
The winning league in the All Star Game no longer gets home field advantage in the World Series. The emphasis has returned to getting everyone in the game. Pitchers who are first time All Stars almost always pitch. Second time selections are also likely to get in the game if they didn’t appear in their first time making the All Star roster. There are an unusually high number of first-time selections this year. In past years, it was common for the starter to pitch two innings. With so many pitchers looking to make their first appearance, that’s less likely to happen in this year’s game. This logjam is also likely to limit relievers other than stud closers to less than one inning. That’s especially true for pitchers selected as the lone representative from their team.
2 – Umpires and Pitch Framing
Mark Wegner will be behind the plate. His strike zone is much tighter than other umpires. Pitchers who paint the corners looking for a called strike will be at a disadvantage. Sanchez is a below average pitch framer and very few starting catchers are worse pitch framers than McCann. On the NL side, Contreras has improved his pitch framing to league average and Grandal is a top pitch framer. NL pitchers will have the advantage on getting called strikes, especially in the second half of the game.
3 – Chasing the Win
With the starters less likely to pitch multiple innings, chasing the win becomes a good strategy. Salary relief from rostering pitchers will be essential to rostering hitters in the starting lineup. Only one pitcher gets the win. If you pick the winner, your lineup can jump four points over the field. The AL is the favorite again but the NL lineup looks even better than last year’s crew that tied the game in the ninth and lost in extras.
4 – Do Your Research
You don’t have to burn the midnight oil doing research, but don’t overlook stats beyond the obvious. Any stat could give you the marginal advantage it will take to jump other entrants. Charlie Morton was among the league leaders in hit by pitch in the first half of the 2018 season and hit a batter in last year’s game.
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HITTERS
1 – Over/Under
Last year’s game set a record for home runs. In the year of the rabbit ball, we could see more of the same. The over under in 2018 was 7 runs and this year it’s jumped all the way up to 8.5 runs
2- Weather and Park Factors
The forecast is for temperatures in the 80s at game time. After a few years on the coasts, the game comes back to the moderately higher elevations of the Midwest. Air density drops as temperature and altitude increase and the ball travels farther in less dense air. Progressive Field favors left-handed power especially pull hitters. The distance to the corner in right is only 325 ft and the fence is only 8 ft in right versus 19 ft in left.
See Mark’s Weather Station here. He covers everything from air density to park factors. In his room, #dfs-weather, he also posts live shot radars leading up to lock in an attempt to guide us in risk assessment when it comes to pitching and bats every time weather is any kind of an issue.
3 – Plate Appearances
The emphasis on appearances for pitchers also extends to hitters. Most starters will get two plate appearances with two hitters at the top of the order getting three plate appearances. Usually the leadoff and number two hitter get three plate appearances. Exceptions are if there are two reserves at that position. In that instance, the player will likely leave the game after two plate appearances and a number three or four hitter will stay in the game for one more plate appearance. Mike Trout also gets three plate appearances no matter where he bats because he’s Mike Trout.
4 – Reserves
Most reserves will also get two plate appearances. When there is more than one reserve at a position, one of those players will only get one plate appearance. This year that is shortstop in both leagues. The backup DH in both leagues plus the starter for the NL are usually the worst defensive players among catchers, first basemen, and outfielders when there is more than one reserve at a position. This year there are two catchers and three first basemen in the NL, and four outfielders and two first basemen in the AL.
5 – Stacking
In a game expected to feature a lot of offense, mini stacks are a viable strategy. Solo home runs are the norm for most games. Last year, both Segura and Gennett hit one over the fence with men on. Reserves will enter the game in the same place in the lineup as the starter they are replacing. Reserve outfielders do not always enter the lineup in the same place in the order as the starter. A center fielder may enter the game in the lineup spot of a left fielder or right fielder.
6 – Pinch Runners and Steals
If a hitter gets on base in their second plate appearance, they could be replaced by a pinch-runner if the reserve is a potential base stealer. Some managers are more likely than others to use this strategy. Ned Yost, who never saw a base he didn’t want stolen, put in Brock Holt to pinch run for Mike Trout in 2015. Stolen base attempts are almost always successful in the All Star Game. Yonder Alonso, who only stole two bases in the entire 2017 season, stole a base that year with Yadier Molina, the active career leader for caught stealing percentage, behind the plate.
You guys know to follow me in #showdown-city in the coaching forums. We’ll be active today for sure! Let’s talk a little MLB before Friday’s full slate kicks in our second half run of the classic formats.
