Happy 4th of July everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here’s the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:30pm central time.
My top pitchers today
Early slates
There are a lot of options between these 8 games, but as you can see above, we don’t really have any surefire cash game options here. The top-rated pitchers are mostly budget options (Milone, Hernandez, and Wacha), where our more expensive arms are in somewhat rocky matchups (Berrios and Boyd). I think you roll the dice either way here; you can pay down for the cheaper pitchers and load up on bats instead, or you can pay up for the better arms and hope they’re able to dominate their matchups and reach a higher ceiling than the others do. Me personally, I’d go with Boyd and his 615 KSCORE / 3.10 SIERA, as there are only a couple of batters that give me many concerns.
Main slate
We only have four games on this slate, and to be honest, the choices here aren’t a whole heck of a lot better. Canning has the best score here, but that’s against a team with a 5.93 implied total (not a good start for this slate). Ryu has easily been the best pitcher this season of these guys, so he’s certainly in play here too, even if it is against the Padres. Soroka is worth a look here too, but I’m not sure I’d want to use him for cash games.
All in all, cash games look a little tough today (on all slates) for pitchers, so my initial inclination is to say this is more of a GPP day. However, as we do more research and more Vegas information comes out, that may change, so be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where we wind up going as the day goes on.
Offenses to target
For the early slates the Brewers and Pirates have the best carnage matchups, so give them a look. Yes, I know the Brewers have been a letdown, but there are two things you can do here; you can either start fading them and wait for them to get hot again (cash game approach), or you can keep riding the train and hope more and more people get off of it (GPP approach). They will eventually snap out of this funk, as that team is way too talented to stay down forever. When they do, they’ll do it in a big way, and they’ll win somebody a lot of money.
For the main slate, the Red Sox and Braves have the honors of best carnage rating, so we can look to them too.
Early slates
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick off this 4th of July with…the Nationals. How fitting! Both of these pitchers have looked pretty good as of late, and both have pretty solid carnage ratings so back that up (3.12 for Hernandez and a 3.97 for Sanchez). I think this game either stays a low-scoring game or the Nationals take the “team name narrative” and do some damage here. Personally, this doesn’t feel like a good matchup for contrarian Marlins stacks, but I won’t stop you from running some if that tickles your fancy.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker, Castro
GPP note – Their best BvP bat (Prado) isn’t playing now, and I’m not really feeling full stacks against Sanchez. For my money, I would do a one-off or a mini-stack and move on
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Turner, Eaton
GPP note – I would either grab a one-off or go heavy on some full stacks (I don’t see much of a middle option for them today). If you do, hedge with Hernandez in some lineups, because he does have a good carnage rating
Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals
This current series will come to a close today (they’ll meet up again later in Cleveland), and as a fan looking in from the outside, this one feels like an Indians game. Bailey has been pretty good this year and I think they’ll be able to get to him a bit here, though my bigger concern is with the Kansas City bats. They’ve never seen Plesac before and have been struggling a bit with new (to them) pitchers. For that reason alone I think Plesac is in play here today.
Indians 5 star plays – none
Indians 4 star plays – Lindor, Santana, Ramirez, Plawecki (BvP)
GPP note – I’d start with Lindor and Plawecki and stack to the sky, as they certainly have a high ceiling here today
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi, Gordon, Soler/Dozier
GPP note – I worry about Plesac having his way here today, which makes me not like stacks here very much (a high-powered one-off like Soler or Dozier could work though)
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Even though we have one of the worst pitchers (Lopez) going up against one of the better ones this season (Boyd), Vegas is at a deadlock here with both teams being pegged at 4.5 runs with both pitchers with about a -108 moneyline. I mean, I know it’s the Tigers and White Sox, but I guess I was expecting a little more love for Boyd here. Anyway, this game is sort of the theme of this slate, as there’s no clear-cut winner here. With that in mind, I think it’s best to play to each pitcher’s strength/weakness, rather than to just blindly stack here (more on that just below).
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum, Castellanos, Candelario
GPP note – Lopez allows a lot of homers, so even if you don’t go with full stacks, consider some one-offs or mini-stacks
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu (BvP), Moncada, Sanchez, McCann
GPP note – Righty stacks, led by Abreu, are certainly in play here. I would stack big and hope he has a bad game because he’s likely to be really on or really off, and not much in between
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
The ice-cold Brewers will get another crack at this hitter’s park today, though they’ll have to get through Castillo to take advantage of it. Like I mentioned earlier, you can either fade them until they heat back up, or stick with them in GPP and patiently await the day they break out of their funk. As for the Reds, they’ll have to face Woodruff, who has been pretty good as well, so I could see this one playing to the under. If you aren’t playing stacks here, consider the pitchers as options instead.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, Grandal (BvP)
GPP note – If you want to stick with them, go heavy on a cocktail of lefties here
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto (BvP), Senzel, Winker, Dietrich
GPP note – Even if you aren’t stacking here, give Votto a hard look today. He’s 5 for 6 with 2 homers against Woodruff. Also, it’s been a while since Dietrich has knocked one out, and I think he does today
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburg Pirates
We get two pitchers who have shown a fair amount of struggles lately, as well as two offenses that are capable of going off at a moment’s notice, which makes me really like the bats in this one. I think anything from one-offs to full game stacks are in play here because these are the kind of pitchers that tend to really implode when they have a bad game. There are also plenty of homers in the BvP history between these teams/pitchers, which only adds to my confidence here.
Cubs 5 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant
Cubs 4 star plays – Schwarber, Baez, Heyward, Caratini
GPP note – Russell, Heyward, and Schwarber both have a homer against Lyles. Feel free to stack away here
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Newman, Marte, Osuna
GPP note – Bell, Dickerson, and Osuna all have homers against Quintana. Feel free to go crazy on the stacks here too
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
We get another one of our top pitcher options here today with Berrios, and while his last two starts weren’t overly impressive, keep in mind those games were against divisional rivals, and those are always tougher games for pitchers. That won’t be the case today, and outside of the main three Athletics, I’m not too worried about his chances of having a good game here. As for Anderson, well…let’s just wish him the best of luck today!
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Polanco, Gonzalez, Cruz, Cron, Sano
GPP note – This is a good place for the Twins to go bonkers again so you can load up on these guys. They’re basically all 4-star plays
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Chapman, Olson
GPP note – Berrios is tough, but Davis and Chapman have one homer against him and Olson can’t go more than a few days without hitting one. These three are in play as one-offs
St Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
Wacha and the Cardinals will face Milone and the Mariners here again today, and I think both pitchers are in play as budget options here. The Mariners have very little experience against Wacha, and outside of Goldschmidt, nobody on the Cardinals projected lineup has really done much against Milone (let alone the fact that they’re all fairly cold). I think the best approach here would be to take a one-off or two and/or take some shots with the pitchers in GPP, as that’s about all that looks appealing here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt
GPP note – I like Goldy as a one-off, but seeing as the rest of the team has been pretty quiet, that’s about all I like here
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana, Vogelbach, Narvaez
GPP note – The power lefties (above) are in play here as one-offs, or even mini-stacks if you’re feeling frisky. I don’t really like full stacks here though
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees will meet up with Chirinos today, and even though he does have a nice carnage rating, I was really surprised at how low the implied total was for them. He’s allowed his share of homers every game, and we know how much the Yankees like to hit them, so this looks to be a place where Vegas may have set the bar a little low. I’d be sure to at least grab some one-offs here, but consider some big stacks as well, as that implied total may help keep their ownership down just a tad.
Yankees 5 star plays – LeMahieu (BvP and running super hot)
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez, Judge, Voit…everybody else
GPP note – There’s probably going to be at least one or two homers in this lineup, so don’t skimp out here. Everybody is in play here
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Garcia (BvP), Pham, Adames
GPP note – I’d probably stick to small stacks one one-offs here. Garcia is 4 for 12 with 2 homers against Happ, so don’t forget about him and his power today
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Main slate
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll kick off the main slate with Velazquez and the Red Sox bullpen taking on Stroman. Now, while everything points towards the Red Sox and “avoid Stroman at all costs”, I’d like to offer some food for thought about him today. We know he wants to go to New York, and we know they have their eye on him. He left his last start a little early due to a cramp in his left pec, and that undoubtedly raised some flags for the Yankees. So, what’s Stroman to do? Go out there and have himself a game, showing them that he’s good to go. Also, what better team to do that against than the Yankees’ rival, the Red Sox? Stroman is the kind of guy who would be thinking about things like that, and I think he could be in for a sneaky good game (I’m sure he’ll be low-owned too, even on this small slate).
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Betts, Bogaerts (BvP)
GPP note – Even if Stroman does have that big game, I think some one-offs could be in play (especially Bogaerts) even if the full stacks suffer
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Sogard, Gurriel, Smoak
GPP note – It’s a bullpen game, so it’s hard to know what we’ll get here. I’d lean on the guys above to be able to adapt best to whatever matchup they get as the game rolls on
Philadephia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
This is a good spot for the Braves to go off, though they won’t be sneaky. On the other hand, Eflin does sport a 507 KSCORE today, so don’t be afraid to take a few shots with him as a contrarian pitching option. As for the Phillies, well, if you recall, Harper likes having big games on days like this, so definitely have some exposure to him today. I’m not saying he’s a lock, but…he’ll probably hit one out today.
Phillies 5 star plays – Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – Hoskins, Segura, Realmuto
GPP note – Even if you don’t want to stack here, get some exposure to Harper today
Braves 5 star plays – Freeman, Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Donaldson (BvP),
GPP note – It feels like there’s never a bad time to stack these guys, and today is no exception. Stack away and get creative, and don’t forget about Donaldson’s BvP (4 for 5 with a homer)
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
This series in Arlington will come to a close today, and this one will be led by Canning and Lynn, who happen to have the best two carnage ratings on the board. That puts both pitchers squarely in play here today, even if it does feel a little risky (but hey, that’s what GPPs are for). As for the bats, the usual suspects are all in play here, and either team could go bananas and put up 10+ runs by the end of this one. In other words, everybody is in play in this one, so pick and choose at your leisure.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Simmons (BvP), Calhoun
GPP note – If you don’t full stack here, do consider Simmons, as he’s 5 for 11 with a homer and no strikeouts against Lynn
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Gallo, Choo, Odor, Calhoun
GPP note – If you stack here, go heavy on the lefties as they’re in a really good spot
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, our final game on the day will feature another round of some Padres and Dodgers action. The Dodgers definitely have the advantage in this one, as they’ll have Ryu facing off against Lamet (who has yet to pitch in 2019). This will be a prime spot for the Dodgers lefties so be sure they’re in your GPP pool. As for the Padres, they’ll have a difficult task ahead of them, but there are a few one-offs I don’t mind (see below).
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Reyes, Renfroe
GPP note – I don’t care for full stacks here, but high-powered one-offs are a great option, and we know how much Manny likes to go to big name ballparks and put on a show (I’m calling a Manny homer today)
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Pederson, Muncy, Verdugo, Beaty
GPP note – Another righty, another day to stack the LAD lefties (but don’t forget about Turner and Taylor!)
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and I hope you all enjoy your 4th of July. I’ll see you all in Slack!
