Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here is the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:00 pm central time.
A look at pitchers
Gerrit Cole – His carnage rating might not be the best, but everything else looks fantastic here. He’ll likely be one of (if not the) chalk options in cash, so you could default here today. For GPP he offers a massive ceiling, especially if the Oakland bats are snoozing (which they tend to do, especially against dominant pitchers like Cole). All in all, he looks to be a top option on the slate today in all formats on both sites.
Mike Clevinger – Our carnage leader today also boasts the highest KSCORE on the board today at 582, and his 724 VKSCORE is third-best on the slate. While his matchup does look better here, I don’t expect people to want to target him in cash games over Cole, so I’d probably go with him for cash games and save Clevinger for GPP use. As far as that’s concerned, he offers a ceiling right up there with Cole, so don’t forget about this guy today!
Robbie Ray – His carnage rating looks better now than it did with the initial run (if you didn’t see that number, well…it’s probably for the best), but it’s still a little higher than expected. Still, there’s plenty of Vegas love here with his 782 VKSCORE, and his 501 KSCORE shows some upside here. I can’t say “don’t play him!” in this matchup where he offers an elite ceiling, but for the money, I think I’d rather just go to Cole for cash game purposes.
Daniel Ponce de Leon – With the second-best carnage rating on the board, as well as a healthy 511 KSCORE, Ponce de Leon looks to be an interesting GPP option today. He dropped a dud on us last week in this matchup, but that will only serve to keep his ownership down. For the price (especially on FanDuel) he offers a lot of potential value if he brings his A-game today. It should go without saying, but this one is GPP only, so don’t go here for your cash games.
Sonny Gray / Marco Gonzales – They are facing some potentially dangerous teams here, but their carnage ratings and KSCORES tells me there is some upside here, so don’t be afraid to sprinkle them around in GPP today.
Offenses to target
The Nationals (weather permitting), Astros, and Cardinals get the best carnage ratings on the board today, so look to them for offensive production today. Our implied run total leaders, outside of those teams, are the Diamondbacks, Yankees, and Twins.
An honorable mention would be the Mariners. Now, I know they have a bit of a watered-down lineup here, but they are still slated for over 5 runs and Sampson is the kind of guy who can implode at a moment’s notice, so I really like them as a lower-owned stack today. Weaker lineup or not, they’re still professionals, and they will jump all over a pitcher that’s throwing bad pitches to them.
St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with a series rematch here, and the Pirates will host the Cardinals this time around. If things go the way I think they might, I think we’ll see the Cardinals run away with this game on both fronts (I like Ponce de Leon’s chances here and the Cardinals have a bit of BvP against Williams, who also carries the worst carnage rating on the board today). I like the idea of grabbing several pieces from this game, but don’t forget about the strong Pittsburgh bats for one-offs or mini-stacks. Of course, if you think they can get to PdL again here, feel free to stack away, as the Pirates are good at posting up a bunch of runs when they go off.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/DeJong/Martinez (BvP), Edman, Wong (BvP)
GPP note – There’s a decent chance of a big game by this offense, so don’t overlook them today like everybody else will
Pirates 5 star plays – Bell
Pirates 4 star plays – Frazier, Moran, Dickerson
GPP note – Any kind of exposure is in play here, though I do prefer smaller stacks or one-offs this time around (lean towards the lefties)
Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
WARNING – early signs point to this game being a trouble spot for some bad weather, so keep an eye on #dfs-weather to get the latest info!
Weather side, the Nationals are in a great spot here, so if they play, you can stack away with confidence (be warned that others will too if the weather clears up…so keep an eye on the skies!). As for the Rockies, their lower implied total will probably keep people off of them, but they’re in a pretty good spot here too. You can go contrarian with them or game stack this one. Again, this is all weather permitting, so keep an eye on #dfs-weather today!
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Murphy, Dahl, Wolters (budget bomber)
GPP note – Solid-looking contrarian stack…if the weather holds
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Turner, Soto, Eaton
GPP note – If they play, stack away!
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
One of our top GPP pitchers will be on the mound in this next one, where Clevinger will take on Borucki (in his 2019 debut) and the Blue Jays. You already know how I feel about the visiting pitcher here, but what about Borucki? Well, going off what he did last year, he didn’t strike out a ton of batters (6.2 k/9), but he didn’t allow a ton of big hits either (.6 hr/9). He did allow 1.321 WHIP (walks/hits per inning pitched) though, so unless he comes out of the gate throwing some hot fire, I think the Indians will be able to rally up a little bit against him. If he comes out and he’s not quite there yet, it could open up the flood gates, so don’t be afraid to stack some Indians here.
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Santana, Mercado
GPP note – If you go here, go with big stacks and hope that Borucki is a little shaky in his 2019 debut
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak (BvP)
GPP note – Difficult matchup against Clevinger. You can go contrarian or just grab Smoak for his BvP (2 for 4 with a homer) and move on
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
After a bit of a disappointing series at Camden Yards, the Red Sox travel south to meet up with the Rays for a bullpen game. They’ll take Rodriguez to the mound, who has looked pretty sharp, so I don’t mind taking some shots with him in GPP (I didn’t write him up earlier since I like the other options better, but he’s in play here if you want to go a different route). The Rays are without Brandon Lowe, their top bat against him, so that definitely puts a point in his favor. As for the Red Sox, they’re a team loaded with talent, so you could always stack them again since people may not be as big on them after how these last few games went (they remember the duds, not the 17-run explosion).
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Bogaerts
GPP note – Their low (for them) implied total and recent duds will keep their ownership down, so go here if you want a high ceiling without the high ownership
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, d’Arnaud, Garcia
GPP note – Tough matchup against Rodriguez. I’d go smaller stacks or just look elsewhere
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox
This game…well, this game is a little tough to draw a conclusion from. Both pitchers have a 5.xx carnage rating, are lower priced, and have the same 4.75 implied run total. Neither team has a stand-out stud that will draw people to them, and both pitchers have looked decent enough this season that I don’t think people will flock to either offense tonight. All in all, this game is basically one giant coin-flip (or several smaller coin-flips), so if you want to take a few shots in the dark on teams that nobody else will be on, this is your game. The one thing we DO know is that Nova has a tendency to be weak to left-handed batters, so that could be a good place to target here…if they put out a lineup with any.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Walker, Cooper, Granderson, Rojas
GPP note – If you stack here, be sure to include some lefties (hope they release a lineup with more than one or two of them)
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada, Abreu, McCann
GPP note – It’s a coin-flip, so stack here if you’re feeling frisky today
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
We get one of our highest implied totals of the day here, and seeing that it’s only 11.0 (at the moment), that tells you a bit about this slate. Anyway, both of these teams just LOVE to hit home runs, so you can look here for anything from one-offs to full-on game stacks. There’s bound to be some offensive production coming from this one, so don’t be afraid to eat a little chalk and go lower-owned with the rest of your lineup.
Yankees 5 star plays – Sanchez, LeMahieu
Yankees 4 star plays – Encarnacion (BvP), Judge, Voit, Hicks, Torres
GPP note – You know what to do
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Kepler, Cron, Schoop, Gonzalez, Sano….Cruz/Garver
GPP note – Fun fact: the first five I listed above all have one homer against Sabathia
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Our chalky cash pitcher, Cole, will host Bailey and his new team today. This looks to be a spot for Cole to dominate and post up a nice score, though it is baseball, so you can stack against him here and hope for some mayhem. As for Bailey, he’s looked good for most of 2019, though this is an extremely talented team, so don’t be afraid to stack here.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – none (Davis/Chapman/Semien/Profar/Grossman if going contrarian)
GPP note – Several of these guys have hit a homer off of Cole already (listed above), so there is some merit to going contrarian here if you’re feeling brave
Astros 5 star plays – Springer, Altuve, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Brantley (BvP), Gurriel, Alvarez
GPP note – Bailey has looked decent this year, but these guys are always worth a look
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
We get the Brewers at home next, where they like to do some damage, but they’ll have to get through Gray first. He’s looked pretty sharp most of the year, and like I touched on earlier, I don’t mind him in GPP today. Mostly the same could be said about Anderson, as he is capable of a good game here and there. All in all, I think I like smaller stacks here, as I’m not too confident in either of these teams going bananas today.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Suarez (BvP), Votto, Puig
GPP note – Suarez is 4 for 21 with 3 homers against Anderson, so consider him for a one-off if you aren’t touching anybody else here
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Moustakas, Cain (BvP)
GPP note – Gray has been tough but the lefties (and Cain) are still worth a look here for GPP
Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks
We have another top arm here today with Ray who will host Brooks, his bullpen, and the Orioles. The big question here is, will the O’s keep their momentum going after beating up on the Red Sox? Or will they cool off a bit after the long flight across the country? Either way, there is a lot to love here from a GPP perspective, but for cash games, I think we have some other targets we can look at without worrying about too much chalk here.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Mancini, Villar
GPP note – Keep stacking them if you think they keep the runs coming in, or fade them if you think it was just them being hyped up against Boston
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Escobar, Marte, Dyson
GPP note – There’s no BvP here and it’s a bullpen game, so favor the top of the order and/or any switch-hitters they use today
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
We get another fresh pitcher here (Mills will be making his second start of 2019), against another mid-priced pitcher who has looked pretty decent, and they’ll get the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball. I could see this one playing to the under, so if you’re looking for a budget pitcher or a one-off batter, this isn’t a terrible place to look. There’s literally zero BvP on either side of this one, which just adds to that feeling.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Schwarber
GPP note – I’d prefer a one-off or maybe a mini-stack here, as I don’t think the Cubs will explode here today
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Crawford, Yastrzemski, Sandoval
GPP note – Same as the Cubs
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
And finally, our hammer game features the Rangers and Mariners, and…you know, come to think of it, when these teams played each other earlier in the season, they sure liked to put up a bunch of runs against one another. Granted the Mariners had a stronger lineup then, but they’ll be facing Sampson today, who is no stranger to allowing a bunch of mayhem. The Rangers will be looking to do some damage of their own after being handled by the Astros and Diamondbacks these last few games.
Anyway, if I had to point to a single game today and say “yep, this is one the one that’s going to go off” (outside of the Yankees/Twins), I think it would be this one. If you want some late-night hammer action, this could be it!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Top of the order + Gallo
GPP note – If you go here, go big on full stacks, since they tend to explode as a team
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Vogelbach, Narvaez, Santana, Smith, Crawford
GPP note – They get a potential gascan pitcher, so don’t overlook them…especially not all those lefties!!
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and I hope you all enjoy your week. I’ll see you all in Slack!
