Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. The following three guys are my favorite starting pitchers on the slate to target in either Cash games or GPPs depending on the player based on their matchup and pricing.
- Patrick C0rbin – Corbin draws a matchup with the Kansas City Royals who are no stranger to a little bad offense. The Royals strikeout at a 22% rate this season which is fairly league average, but Corbin is striking guys out at a 27.3% clip. With an implied run total of just 3.5 runs and with Corbin being at home, I like him quite a bit in this spot.
- Trent Thornton – Thornton is coming off of a very rough outing against the Boston Red Sox, but today he gets a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles who are a bit of a different offense, to be kind. This is pretty much a price play for me, he is dirt cheap and the Orioles will strikeout and really don’t scare me from a lineup perspective. Baltimore is striking out at a 24% rate on the season to go along with Thornton’s 23.8%. He has proven to be able to put up a decent game at the major league level so, at this price, I will surely have some interest.
- Zach Wheeler – Wheeler gets a matchup with the Phillies today, a matchup that I feel like happens about once per week. In three starts against the Phillies this season Wheeler is averaging 25.6 Draftkings points per game. He is third on the Carnage Report and has a 25.5% strikeout rate on the season. He feels kind of awkwardly priced, but if you get creative at pitcher you can definitely make it work with another top pitcher or paying down.
Full Count Breakdown:
Baltimore Orioles (+157)@ Toronto Blue Jays (-170)
I kind of briefly touched on this game when talking about Trent Thornton, who I will have a lot of interest in today. The fact that the Jays are big favorites in this game makes me feel better about that stance as well. As far as the Jays bats go, you could do worse, but this offense is way too inconsistent for my liking. They’re best suited for GPPs.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t hate a hedge stack if you’re like me and will have a bunch of Trent Thornton, but otherwise I’ll be on the Thornton side of this one.
TOR 5-star plays: Justin Smoak
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Again, not a stack I love. But they’re cheap and will allow you to jam in some expensive pitching if you want to go with a stack of something like – 1,2,3/4,5,7
Cleveland Indians (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds (+107)
I like Trevor Bauer here and he is one of my favorite pitchers to watch in the big leagues. He feels a smidge underpriced so I don’t hate going with him here. As for the Indians offense I love targeting lefties against Tyler Mahle, so that is indeed what we shall do!
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jake Bauers, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado
GPP Note: Mahle is a guy that I will want to attack with left-handed bats, given the ballpark and the spot, load up on any lefty in this lineup. They are one of the better stacks for me on the slate.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Trevor Bauer, he’s got electric stuff.
New York Yankees (+103) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-111)
The Yankees have a pretty difficult matchup here with Charlie Morton who has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season. If this game were at Yankee Stadium I would say you could go ahead and make a contrarian Yankees build, but I don’t see the need on this slate. Charlie Morton has struggled a bit in this matchup this season, so I won’t be paying a premium for him here. James Paxton, on the other hand, is a bit interesting. The Rays strikeout at a 22.4% rate against lefties this season and have an implied run total of just 3.9. If you want a cheap SP1 or an expensive SP2, he makes a lot of sense here.
NYY 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Charlie Morton has great stuff and I really don’t think we need to get cute here.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: This game is just pitching for me, both guys have great stuff, so I don’t see a reason to want to stack up either of these teams. There are better spots on a sizable slate.
Boston Red Sox (-273) @ Detroit Tigers (+247)
The Red Sox have a massive implied run total of 6.7 runs here and get a matchup with Gregory Soto and the rest of the Tigers bullpen. This game could get ugly quick, I will have some Red Sox stack shares, that much is for certain. David Price is a solid play as well, as I don’t see this Tigers team being able to do a whole lot of anything against him here.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vasquez (DK)
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: They may be popular but there is a reason for that. The Red Sox are one of the top stacks on the slate and I don’t hate differentiating yourself and making a 1-3-4-5-8 stack and getting the bottom that order in here.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not going to attack David Price with a weak offense, no thanks.
Philadelphia Phillies (-104) @ New York Mets (-104)
Both of these pitchers are very good and I won’t have any issue if you wanted to use either of them. I wrote up Zach Wheeler as one of my favorite guys on the slate, so if picking between the two it would be him. As far as offenses go, I don’t see the need to stack against either of these guys, there are other bats we can play on this slate.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Just Zach Wheeler for me today
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Alonso is the only viable piece of this offense for me, but even that is scary given his tag.
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Miami Marlins (+179) @ Atlanta Braves (-195)
I can see a way in which Dallas Keuchel draws some interest on this slate, but it will not be from me. He hasn’t done anything special since signing with the Braves, so I will wait for him to prove me wrong. The Braves have an implied run total of 5.6 runs here and are an elite offense so stacking them up makes a lot of sense.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starlin Castro (value)
GPP Note: As much as I hate Keuchel here, I’m not stacking up the Marlins on a large slate like this, they just don’t have the upside.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: The thing that makes this stack tough is their price tags, for that reason, I will make them a secondary stack.
Milwaukee Brewers (-107) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-101)
The Brewers are just in some kind of rut here and the All-Star Break came at a perfect time, I will fade them one last time before firing up the whole second half of the season. That said, Joe Musgrove is a hard fade for me as well, this Brewers offense still has a ton of offense. I don’t really want to play Chase Anderson either, the Pirates make for a decent stack here, they have been killing the ball lately.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames
GPP Note: They just aren’t swinging the bats well, but a GPP flyer is never out of question with them.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starlin Marte, Jung Ho Kang, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: They’re not my favorite stack, but Chase Anderson isn’t exactly great and Josh Hader won’t be available out of the Brewers pen, so you could certainly do worse. Do not leave Bell out of your stack, whatever you do.
Kansas City Royals (+218) @ Washinton Nationals (-239)
I touched on Patrick Corbin earlier, he is one of my favorite pitchers on the slate and the large team favorite makes me feel even better about that. Jakob Junis really isn’t awful, but he has given up 10 earned runs over his past 10.2 innings, so maybe the Nats can take advantage here.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against one of my favorite pitchers on the slate in any way except for a hedge stack in a small dollar GPP.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Juan Soto
4-star plays: Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki
GPP Note: 5.6 implied run total for the Nats, I don’t hate them as a stack. They are in the Braves territory in terms of priority for me.
Los Angeles Angels (+147) @ Houston Astros (-160)
I want to have some interest in Jose Uriquidy here, but this Angels offense is a bit pesky. They really don’t strikeout a whole lot, but Uriquidy’s price is tempting. I guess for now we call him a GPP play and wait to see what the Angels lineup looks like. Jose Saurez has pitched fine for the Angels, but he feels overpriced especially for a matchup against a very good offense that is beginning to get healthy.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
GPP Note: I want to have interest in Uriquidy here so I won’t be stacking the Angels, but they do have some great one-off options, to say the least.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Robinson Chirinos (DK)
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, George Springer
GPP Note: This is a stack, unlike the Braves, that feels too cheap. If I would rank them I would put them up there above the Nats and Braves but behind the Red Sox.
Chicago Cubs (-182) @ Chicago White Sox (+167)
Kyle Hendricks is not a guy I want to stack against because he has the ability to just be in the zone and hit the corners. I really wouldn’t want to stack up the Sox anyway. The Cubs have an implied total of 6.2 runs here and should be pretty popular with Ivan Nova on the mound. There is no reason not to like the Cubs here other than their prices and potential ownership.
CHC 5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Jayson Heyward, Javier Baez, Albert Almora
GPP Note: They are behind the Astros and Red Sox for me, but I love including Almora in your stack especially on Draftkings here you can use five of them.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t know that I’ll play much Kyle Hendricks, but I respect his stuff enough to not stack against him.
Texas Rangers (+170) @ Minnesota Twins (-185)
I wanted to write up Devin Smeltzer here, but I’m not confident in how many innings he would see. Kyle Gibson will open this game and go for about two innings, so I’ll sit and wait this one out. The Twins are up there with the Red Sox and Astros as top stacks for me.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: I like both Gibson and Smetzer here, so no Rangers for me.
MIN 5-star plays: Jason Castro (DK), Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano
GPP Note: We will have to keep an eye on the lineup, but on first thoughts, they will be in that first tier of stacks for me in this matchup.
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St. Louis Cardinals (-117) @ San Franciso Giants (+108)
I think I’m just going to continue to chase the Jack Flaherty train, I really believe in this guys talent and he gets a massive ballpark bump here against a bad team. The Cardinals are an offense that I’ll probably have some interest on in the later slate I think the Shark can be had and this Cards offense has some potential that is just underperforming right now.
STL 5-star plays: Jose Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina (DK)
GPP Note: I don’t really want to full stack them, but a mini-stack is certainly in play.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll be all over Jack Flaherty here.
San Diego Padres (+149) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-162)
Ross Stripling grades out as the top pitcher on the late slate from the Carnage Report. With that said, I don’t know how much I love him here. The Dodgers will likely be careful with his pitch count until he is fully stretched out so I will likely take a wait and see approach here. Joey Lucchesi is more than a serviceable pitcher, I normally like to stack up the Dodgers but I’ll go elsewhere in this matchup.
SDP 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: I really actually kind of like a contrarian Padres stack here if we find out that Stripling is going to be popular, it will give us great leverage on the field.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Lucchesi has pitched pretty good as of late, I’ll find a different offense to stack on this slate.
Colorado Rockies (-135) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+125)
I will have some interest in German Marquez here as he is an elite pitcher away from Coors, so no Dbacks bats for me. I do like the Rockies here which is weird because I don’t think I have targeted them away from home all season. But, they get a matchup against a lefty and their lineup can do some damage here.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Ian Desmond, David Dahl
GPP Note: The Rockies are expensive, but they are one of my favorite late slate stacks.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t stack against German Marquez in Coors, so I certainly won’t do it on the road.
Oakland Athletics (-137) @ Seattle Mariners (+127)
The Rockies will edge out the A’s as my favorite stack on this slate but they come in a close second. I usually don’t stack against Wade LeBlanc because he just knows how to get out of trouble. But this A’s lineup can mash left-handed pitching and are really inexpensive. As for the Mariners, I just don’t see a reason to go with them right now, their lineup isn’t what it was earlier this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Second favorite stack on this slate, if you want to pay up for pitching they are a great option considering their cheap price tags.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I have little confidence in this offense.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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