Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. These three guys are the highest ranked pitchers on the Carnage Report and none of them should really come as a surprise given their talent and their matchup.
- Shane Bieber – Bieber is the highest rated pitcher on the early slate and gets a matchup with the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have an implied run total of 4 runs here and Bieber has been pitching like a stone cold ace as of late. In his last game, he went for 42.2 Draftkings points against the Orioles. The Reds are striking out at a 23.4% rate on the season while Bieber is striking out opposing hitters at an elite 31.7% rate. It’s hard not to like Bieber in this situation tonight.
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer has the highest Kscore on this slate and that is something I really chase when it comes to finding a pitcher. Scherzer has a ridiculous 34.8% strikeout rate on the season and gets a great matchup with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals have an implied run total of just 2.8 runs here and I really like Mad Max here. The only issue with Max here is his immense price tag, rostering him will limit what you can do with bats but he has legit 13 strikeout upside in this spot.
- Michael Pineda – Pineda may come as a bit of a surprise by cracking the top three here. He gets a matchup with the Rangers who have a pretty decent strikeout rate of 25.8% this season. Pineda is coming off of a great start against the White Sox in which he scored 27.9 Draftkings points. His price has definitely come up but he’s a nice SP2 in cash games and even has SP1 potential in GPPs.
Using the Carnage Report to attack hitters: The Carnage Report is good for more than just helping you select some pitchers for the day. I also use it as a base to help figure out who I want to target on offense. When looking for bats to target we want to look for that dark red and lighter red boxes. We see that Andrew Cashner has an 8.53 Carnage Score, for example. To go along with that he is giving up a 6.35 SIERA, this is something we can take into account when looking at the Blue Jays offense. The same can be said for the Orioles and Clayton Richard, use these columns to your advantage and be sure to take any questions you may have to the slack chat and let us coaches help you out!
Full Count Breakdown:
Texas Rangers (+148) @ Minnesota Twins (-161)
I touched on Michael Pineda above when breaking down the pitchers and he has a very nice carnage rating here, so I think I will stay away from the Rangers offense in this spot. The Twins are going banana’s as I write this and are one of my favorite offenses to stack this season. They have a great amount of upside given all the home runs up and down this lineup. Jesse Chavez has actually been pretty solid over his past few starts, but the Twins have an implied run total of 5.7 here, so I think I’ll stick with my gut and go ahead and stack them up.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Shin-soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: I really don’t hate the Rangers as a stack if we get news that Pineda is going to be popular. In that case, I don’t mind stacking them up in GPPs because they do have some very nice home run upside. It’s a bit of a weaker lineup if Gallo isn’t in there, but I still wouldn’t talk you off of it.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver (DK)
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: As I mentioned I love stacking up the Twins and probably do it more than I should, but they are just so much fun to stack. There are a few ways to do this here. Expensive way: 1-5, this will include Kepler, Cruz, Garver, etc. it will be expensive but Marwin Gonzalez is a bit of a salary saver to help out. If you go this route I doubt you’ll be able to get to Scherzer or Cole, but it’s viable. Cheap route: use the bottom three guys in some wrap-around fashion. These guys are a cheap way to get exposure to this offense and will help your odds of getting a top end pitcher.
Baltimore Orioles (+132) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-143)
The year is 2019.. and Andrew Cashner is over $9k on Draftkings. He had a huge game last game against the Indians and I rarely will stack against him, but I’m just not going to pay this price tag for Cashner. That said, I’m not stacking the Blue Jays, so this is a bit of a stay-away spot for me. The Orioles, on the other hand, are very interesting. They have an implied run total of 5.1 runs here and Clayton Richard is not good, to say the least. Richard has given up at least three earned runs in his past five games, the Orioles are boom or bust but I like them for GPPs.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar
4-star plays: Keon Broxton, Renato Nunez, Pedro Severino
GPP Note: So, the Orioles are incredibly cheap here and I could see them garnering some ownership as a way to get up to some expensive pitchers. I really don’t hate the idea at all and I actually like it quite a bit. You can do a wrap around stack here with Broxton, Villar, Mancini, and a combo of two more guys for a pretty cheap lump sum. If you want top-end pitchers, stacking the Orioles isn’t the worst plan.
TOR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero, Eric Sogard
GPP Note: I really don’t stack against Andrew Cashner unlike most of the field, but now that his price has come up I wouldn’t expect the field to be there either. I’m staying away from a full Blue Jays stack but some one-offs are completely fine.
Milwaukee Brewers (-106) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-102)
Neither of these pitchers are all that great and probably won’t be in all that long. I would expect both of these guys to pitch less than 5 innings at the most. Both teams have an implied run total of at least five, but I don’t really ever stack in this ballpark as it is more of a pitchers park. Those who know me know I’m a massive Brewer fan and maybe like them more than I should at times, but they are just not playing well right now. I will probably be off of them until after the break. The Pirates are fine for GPPs, but I think we can be picky on a bigger slate here.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Keston Hiura, Jesus Aguilar (value)
GPP Note: The Brewers are an elite offense who have just underperformed for the past 1-2 weeks. Aguilar broke out of a season-long slump last night and you can take a chance with him at a cheap price tag and hope he gets hot here. Pair him with Hiura and the power lefties and you have yourself a stack that is viable for GPPs, but GPPs only.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: I don’t love the Pirates here strictly because of their price tags. Josh Bell is swinging the bat like no other, so I really can’t blame you if you want to go there. But it’s a bit too expensive for my liking.
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Kansas City Royals (+337) @ Washinton Nationals (-378)
The Nats are MASSIVE favorites here at -378 with Scherzer on the mound. I touched on Scherzer already and if you have the salary go and get him, I just don’t know if I will or not. The Nationals are very viable against Sparkman here with an implied run total of 5.8 runs here.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: There’s no reason to stack against Scherzer on this slate.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Victor Robles, Yan Gomes
GPP Note: I love the Nationals here, Sparkman just gave up eight earned runs in three innings to the Blue Jays. If Robles is in the lineup I love the idea of a wrap-around stack because of the speed/power upside that he provides. If Yan Gomes cracks the lineup he provides some salary relief within the stack and I love the idea of paying down at catcher if you can include him in your stack. The Nats are in a great spot here.
Cleveland Indians (-128) @ Cincinnati Reds (+118)
I touched on Shane Bieber earlier within the Carnage Report breakdown. I love Bieber here especially at a discount to Scherzer and Cole (for the all-day slate). I normally don’t love attacking pitching in Cincinnati due to the small ballpark, but Bieber has proven immense upside this season. DeSclafani tends to struggle with left-handed bats and the Indians can throw out a bunch here if they do I will love them.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Oscar Mercado, Jake Bauers
GPP Note: The Indians have the ability to roll out six lefties here and I would almost expect that they do. If Jose Ramirez is at the beginning of a hot streak I want to be at the start of it. The rest of this stack is pretty cheap given the ballpark and matchup and I think there are a ton of ways to stack them up here if you want to. An implied run total of 4.5 may get overlooked here and give you leverage on the field.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I love Bieber here, so no Reds for me outside of a hedge stack.
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmerman are both well past their prime, but let’s face it, one of these offenses is much better than the other. That offense is, of course, the Red Sox. I stacked them up last night and I think we can go right back to the well here tonight. As for the Tigers, I’m not stacking them up on a slate with a multitude of options.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Christian Vasquez (DK), Michael Chavis
GPP Note: It’s tough not to like the Red Sox here, Jordan Zimmerman simply is not good. The Sox top of the order is expensive, as they should be. If you pay down at pitching you can certainly get here and feel okay about it. But if you want to try and squeeze them in with at least on higher end pitcher you may need to fade one of JD or Mookie and sub in a Jackie Bradley or someone at the bottom of the order. All that said, there really isn’t a bad play in this lineup.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: I don’t stack the Tigers, the offense is just bad. They’re cheap, but if you want a cheap offense just go with the Orioles.
New York Yankees (+129) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-140)
This is a really interesting spot for both Blake Snell and the Yankees offense. Snell has proven to have massive upside against pretty much any offense in the league and he has great strikeout stuff which is something I am seeking out in a pitcher. With that said, the Yankees offense is lethal, but away from home, they can certainly be had. I don’t mind taking a shot at either side of this one, if you have a feeling on one side or the other, go with it. As for the Rays, I don’t really want to stack them up, Sabathia has an ability to limit runs and the Yankees have one of the better bullpens in the league.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Gleyber Torress
GPP Note: The more I think about it the more I will likely be on the Snell side of this one, but if you want to stack up the Yankees I don’t mind leaving Gary Sanchez off of it and saving some salary. He has some serious “0” point equity and I want to part of that, however, he could certainly burn us and hit two bombs, but that’s the risk we need to take. Overall, I’m only going Yankees in large field tournaments as a leverage play.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz, Austin Meadows
GPP Note: I think Vegas likes the Rays more than I do, as they have a 4.7 implied run total. I would prefer the Indians over them at a similar total. I’m just not going to stack against CC and that bullpen. One-offs are certainly viable. I especially like the guys with speed, as Gary the goat isn’t so great at throwing out base stealers.
Miami Marlins (+173) @ Atlanta Braves (-189)
Max Fried feels too cheap here, plain and simple. Julio Teheran was in a similar spot last night and ended up performing very well. Fried has a very respectable 4.42 Carnage Score here and I will definitely have some interest in him as an SP2 option. Caleb Smith is at the bottom of the initial Carnage Report but that’s with an “N/A’ score. Smith is one of my favorite pitchers in the league and has electric strikeout stuff. However, the Braves offense is stacked and in 90-degree weather with 50% humidity, the ball is going to be flying so I’ll wait for a better spot to play him.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I can imagine I’ll be getting a lot of Max Fried here, so likely not a whole lot of Marlins that I’m interested in.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Johan Camargo
GPP Note: I have a lot of respect for Caleb Smith and stacking against him isn’t something I really want to do, but some of these Braves bats are SUPER cheap. Donaldson at $4.1k on DK, Riley under $5k, and Johan Camargo as a salary saver make this an interesting GPP stack at the least in a very hot ballgame.
Main Slate:
Philadelphia Phillies (+141) @ New York Mets (-153)
Noah Syndergaard just has not been the same this season, so I will let people continue to play him off of his name. With that said, he does have a pretty decent Carnage Score at 3.91, but I’m just going to make him prove me wrong before I jump back on the bandwagon. Arrieta is a bit of an average pitcher at this point in his career, but he has the lowest Carnage Score on the main slate meaning maybe we should look into the Mets here.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Scott Kingery, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto (DK)
GPP Note: Stacking the Phillies will not be popular but really has some huge upside in this spot. Syndergaard really has not been great this season and once you get past him you get the awful Mets bullpen. Stacking the Phils is a great idea for GPPs and I think Harper homers here, it’s a bit of a gut call, but I just think he gets a hold of one.
NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: The Mets have an implied run total of 5.1 runs here to go with Arrieta’s brutal Carnage Score. The Mets are really a pretty cheap stack especially if you want to keep rolling Cano in with it as a salary saver. Peter Alonso continues to crush the ball so don’t forget to include him in there. The Mets aren’t my favorite stack, but most definitely viable in GPPs at the very least.
Chicago Cubs (-107) @ Chicago White Sox (-101)
I’ve been all over the “Jon Lester is a fraud” bandwagon for about a year and a half now, but I don’t think I can go with the White Sox here, there are just better spots on this slate. Lucas Giolito has turned himself into a full-fledged ace this season and gets a decent matchup with the Cubs. He’s cooled down a bit here lately, but the Cubs are striking out at 23.5% rate this season to go along with Giolito’s elite 30% k rate this season. I won’t have any interest in the Cubs, so I think a GPP share or two of Giolito is certainly viable.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Lucas Giolito is for real, I don’t want to stack against him.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, James McCann (DK)
GPP Note: I want to like the White Sox more than I do here, but they just don’t do it for me here. I don’t hate a mini-stack of Abreu, Moncada, McCann in the middle of that order, but don’t go crazy.
Los Angeles Angels (+180) @ Houston Astros (-197)
Gerrit Cole is in a similar spot as Justin Verlander last night. I decided to fade deGrom in favor of Verlander to get an edge on ownership because of the watered down Angels lineup but got burned by it, so I feel a bit gun shy here. However, Cole is a top 5 pitcher in this league so we need to quickly forget last night. Cole has the best Carnage Score on the slate, but the price just feels like a lot here. If you can get to him, do it. Andrew Heaney is a decent pitcher, but in Houston with the wind blowing out against a great lineup, no thanks.
LAA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: One-offs only, you don’t need to stack against Gerrit Cole.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Robinson Chirinos (DK)
GPP Note: I like the Astros a lot here, they have an implied run total of 5.4 runs here. Springer and Bregman are very expensive, as they should be, but the rest of this lineup is fairly affordable. Go ahead and fire up the Astros in this spot.
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St. Louis Cardinals (+105) @ San Francisco Giants (-114)
Drew Pomeranz screwed me last night and I think he did the same to a lot of people judging by the ownership on him. Maybe the Cardinals are going to get hot here, but Madison Bumgarner is in play here whether you like him or not. This ballpark just is not conducive to hitting and Bum is coming off back to back 30 point Draftkings games. I don’t love Miles Mikolas because of his limited upside, but I really don’t love either of these offenses.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez
GPP Note: Man are they cheap, I don’t hate a completely contrarian Cards stack here and trying to jam in some top end pitchers. With that said don’t go crazy, Bumgarner has been very good as of late.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m just not going to stack against a contact-driven pitcher in a big ballpark with a bad offense.
San Diego Padres (+139) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-151)
As much as I want to play Kenta Maeda here I don’t think I can, he just has such a limited upside and we all know how Dave Roberts can be when it comes to pitch counts. The Padres have some elite power bats in their lineup, so although I won’t be stacking them I will definitely look their way for some one-off options. Chris Paddack is a very good young pitcher and I usually have a lot of interest in the Dodgers offense, but I believe in this kids stuff, so I’m going to tone it down here.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Hunter Renfroe
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, but there are some very good power options in this lineup.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: I’m just doing one-offs and mini-stacks here, I may even go with some Chris Paddack in GPPs. I’ll wait for a better spot to go all in with the Dodgers.
Oakland Athletics (-136) @ Seattle Mariners (+125)
Neither of these pitchers is very good, but it is a great park for pitching. Of the two I would have some interest in Chris Bassit as an SP2, he’s proven to have some good upside this season and the Mariners offense is just not scary like it was earlier in the season. The A’s are a team that I think will get overlooked because of the ballpark.
***Kawhi and Paul George just became Clippers, I’m a little in shock… holy smokes***
Welp back to baseball, the A’s have an implied run total of 5.2 runs here against Marco Gonzales. Gonzales isn’t necessarily a gas can, but the Athletics have some massive bats in their lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Khris Davis
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: This lineup is quickly becoming one of my favorites on the slate. Khris Davis at sub $4k with lefty mashers Matt Chapman and Chad Pinder to go along with Matt Olson and Marcus Semien. If they don’t do it for you there’s Mark Canha and Ramon Laureano, this lineup is playable from top to bottom in my opinion.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Domingo Santana
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me, I’ll have some Chris Bassit here as an SP2.
Colorado Rockies (-102) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-106)
Both of these pitchers feel underpriced to me and you can make a case for both of them as cheap SP1’s or very solid SP2’s. The Rockies are not the same away from home and actually are a pretty below average offense on the road. Robbie Ray is one of my favorite pitchers on this slate when it comes to point-per-dollar plays. I prefer him over Jon Gray, but I think you can play them both here and feel pretty good about where you are with pitching and completely pay up for bats.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Just the lefty mashers here, I love the pitching in this game.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Really just pitchers in this game for me.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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