Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Chris Sale – I am not going to overthink his two starts against TOR this season and just plug him in as a very high K guy in my GPP lineups. The ceiling is extremely high and I will accept the risk against a scrappy TOR team.
- Stephen Strasburg – Let’s face it, the Marlins have the worst starting lineup in all of baseball. There is absolutely nobody in the lineup that scares me off of Strasburg for any reason. He has a double-digit K performance against them already this season, he might as well make it 2.
- Walker Buehler – I know they are very expensive but these 3 are just light years ahead of everybody in my eyes for today. Buehler has dominated the D’Backs in his career and gets to face them at home.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Boston Red Sox (-270) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Jacob Waguespack
Ten of Sale’s last thirteen starts have seen him put up 10+ Ks. He has two rough starts against the Blue Jays this season and that is going to take a few people off of Sale here. This Blue Jays team has a few dangerous pieces right now but they can certainly get shut down because they are nowhere near elite at all. The Red Sox offense should continue to roll in this one.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez (.474 ISO L7 days), Rafael Devers (.474 ISO L7 days)
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts (.250 ISO L7 days), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.235 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.412 ISO vs LHP this season), Randal Grichuk (6 for 12 2 HRs vs Sale)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at under a 25% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Boston Red Sox: 4 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays: 2 Stars
Chicago Cubs (-135) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Yu Darvish vs. Chris Archer
The Pirates offense continues to roll right now so we HAVE to look to stack them against a P that allows a TON of baserunners. Archer is somebody that I am going to have a ton of GPP interest in as he has a very strong K rate against the current Cubs MLB roster (17 Ks in 55 PAs). I normally love to stack the Cubs but they just are not putting up runs right now.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez (5 for 9 vs Archer, .247 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo (.269 ISO vs RHP), Kyle Schwarber (.247 ISO vs RHP), Jason Heyward (.223 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (.552 ISO L7 days), Adam Frazier (9 for 10 with 5 doubles and an HR this series)
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson (.321 ISO L7 days), Kevin Newman (.407 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Chicago Cubs: 2.5 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-200)
Starting Pitchers: John Means vs. Ryne Stanek/Austin Pruitt
We will need to pay attention to who is being mentioned as the long reliever. Right now it points to Pruitt and if that is the case, Baltimore’s offense becomes slightly more interesting as he has been far from unhittable this season. On the other side, I really like John Means and think he is definitely in play against the high K rate of TB vs LHP.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini (.230 ISO vs RHP), Chance Sisco (.426 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
TAM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz (.257 ISO vs LHP), Willy Adames (.423 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at just under a 27% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Baltimore Orioles: 1.5 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays: 2.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Starting Pitchers: Jhoulys Chacin vs. Sonny Gray
If we look at just how the SPs have pitched this season, we think that CIN should be in line for an easy victory here. Gray has been stellar most of the season and is actually holding LHBs to an average under .200 on the season. The Reds have looked like the better team lately and should have some run scoring chances here. I am not ready to get off the MIL stacking train just yet. They have to bust out at some point, don’t they?
MIL 5-star plays: Eric Thames (.700 ISO L7 days), Christian Yelich (.280 ISO L7 days)
4-star plays: Lorenzo Cain (7 for 12 vs Gray)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez (.215 ISO vs RHP), Yasiel Puig (11 for 29 with 3 HRs vs MIL this season, also 11 for 29 vs Chacin with 2 HRs)
4-star plays: Derek Dietrich (.383 ISO vs RHP), Joey Votto (8 for 25 2HRs vs Chacin)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Milwaukee Brewers: 3 Stars
Cincinnati Reds: 3.5 Stars
Los Angeles Angels (-125) vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Griffin Canning vs. Ariel Jurado
Both pitchers in this game have reverse splits. When taking into consideration the lineups that they will be facing, Jurado has the tougher match-up with a couple of dangerous RHBs projected to be in the middle of the Angels lineup. Jurado doesn’t offer much for K upside in any start so he should definitely not offer much for K’s here, against an Angels team striking out less than 18% of the time.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (.324 ISO vs RHP), Justin Upton (.294 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani (.281 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: The Angels strike out at less than an 18% rate against RHP this season.
TEX 5-star plays: Joey Gallo (.377 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Ronald Guzman (.333 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at over a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Angels: 3.5 Stars
Texas Rangers: 1.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (-135)
Starting Pitchers: Shaun Anderson vs. Cal Quantrill
Anderson has done a pretty solid job of keeping the ball in the park and he threw a very strong game against the Padres in June. Quantrill has yet to face the Giants in his debut season. The Giants have swung it very well this series but that has come against a couple of LHPs to this point. I think that puts Quantrill in play tonight, while Anderson is probably in play as well but I always like the Padres power bats for GPPs. They are most likely better as one-offs on this slate.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Alex Dickerson (.414 ISO vs RHP), Stephen Vogt (.500 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: SF is striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr. (.287 ISO vs RHP), Franmil Reyes (.332 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe (.308 ISO vs RHP), Manny Machado (10 HRs L16 games)
GPP Note: SD is striking out at under a 27% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
San Francisco Giants: 2 Stars
San Diego Padres: 3 Stars
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals (-260)
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Stephen Strasburg
I want all of the Nationals in this game. The top half of the offense has great numbers against Alcantara in their careers and Strasburg has been very good against the Marlins. Alcantara has given up 11 runs and 3 HRs in 11 innings against the Nationals this season. The Marlins just do not have any firepower against RHP and there is no reason to get away from Strasburg.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson (.350 ISO L7), Miguel Rojas (10 for 23 with 4 doubles vs Strasburg)
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.
WAS 5-star plays: Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon (.304 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Matt Adams (.283 ISO vs RHP), Juan Soto (.353 ISO L7)
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
STACKABILITY:
Miami Marlins: 0.5 Stars (purely as a hedge stack to your Strasburg ownership)
Washington Nationals: 4.5 Stars
New York Yankees (-145) vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Domingo German vs. Jason Vargas
The Yankees definitely looked like they had just spent days traveling half-way across the world. I think this game is another pitcher’s duel as German is making his return from the IL and for some reason nobody can hit Jason Vargas these days. Vargas had a ridiculously strong June.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez (.327 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion (.273 ISO vs LHP), DJ LeMahieu (.550 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at over a 25% rate against LHP this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso (.300 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Michael Conforto (.269 ISO vs RHP), Jeff McNeill (.280 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
New York Yankees: 2.5 Stars
New York Mets: 2 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (-135)
Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta vs. Bryse Wilson
This is a game that I am going to love targeting for bats. Both pitchers have been beat up this season. Pivetta has been a reverse splits guy (even though LHBs have hit him too). The Braves have some strong BvP numbers against Pivetta in their careers while Wilson is just a young guy who has a good arm but gets himself into trouble.
PHI 5-star plays: Jay Bruce (.373 ISO vs RHP w/PHI), Bryce Harper (.286 ISO L7 days)
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins (.243 ISO vs RHP), Jean Segura (.259 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.278 ISO vs RHP), Ronald Acuna Jr. (.202 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Austin Riley (.246 ISO vs RHP), Josh Donaldson (.236 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Philadelphia Phillies: 4 Stars
Atlanta Braves: 4.5 Stars
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox (-138) – GAME 1
Starting Pitchers: Daniel Norris vs. Dylan Cease
I am looking forward to watching Cease make his MLB debut in this spot. It is a spot that should allow him an excellent shot at success as the Tigers are EXTREMELY weak vs RHP. Norris, on the other side, is in some trouble going up against some of the power the White Sox offer against LHP. He does have some K upside here but I like a 3 man stack against him.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Dixon (.236 ISO vs RHP), JaCoby Jones (.220 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP this season.
CWS 5-star plays: James McCann (.250 ISO vs LHP), Jose Abreu (.200 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada (.250 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: The White Sox strike out at over a 25% rate against LHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Detroit Tigers: 1.5 Stars
Chicago White Sox: 3.5 Stars
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox (-132) – GAME 2
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Alexander vs Ross Detwiler
This game could offer us some fireworks, even with two not so good offenses. Both teams are striking out quite a bit against LHP this season but they do have some guys who are capable of mashing the ball against them. This game has a total set at 10.5 runs which definitely seems high but when looking at the pitching, I definitely see it. Alexander has given up 17 HRs in 73.2 innings at AAA this season. He is sporting a WHIP of 1.55 there as well.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera (.250 ISO vs LHP), Brandon Dixon (.233 ISO vs LHP), Nicholas Castellanos (.222 ISO L7)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 27% rate against LHP this season.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu (hitting .347 vs LHP this season), Yoan Moncada (.375 ISO over L7 days)
4-star plays: Eloy Jimenez (.500 ISO over L7 days), James McCann (.250 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: White Sox are striking out at over a 25% rate against LHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Detroit Tigers: 2 Stars
Chicago White Sox: 4 Stars
Houston Astros (-135) vs. Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley vs. Peter Lambert
I am definitely interested in game stacks of Coors here but have some reservations about fully stacking Colorado against Miley. Miley is one of those P’s that rarely seems to get blown up. We know that Lambert has been hit hard at home so far in his young career and Miley has made very few starts in Coors. Miley has allowed just 2 HRs in 28.1 innings against the Rockies on the road.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.400 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (.308 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Alex Bregman (.249 ISO vs RHP), Yuli Gurriel (.545 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just an 18% rate against RHP this season.
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado (.337 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Ian Desmond (.366 ISO vs LHP), Charlie Blackmon (.273 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Houston Astros: 4 Stars
Colorado Rockies: 3.5 Stars
Cleveland Indians (-165) vs. Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Mike Clevinger vs Danny Duffy
Neither team is destroying the baseball right now so both Ps are definitely in play for us. Clevinger is going to get a lot of interest but he hasn’t looked very good since he went down with a back issue. I am more interested in the Duffy side against an Indians team struggling mightily at the plate this season. Both sides have a couple of guys who have strong BvP numbers if you are into that thing (I definitely am).
CLE 5-star plays: Carlos Santana (13 for 30 against Duffy), Mike Clevinger
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor (6 for 17 with 2 HRs against Duffy)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 22% rate against LHP this season.
KC 5-star plays: Danny Duffy
4-star plays: Jorge Soler (.290 ISO vs RHP, 6 for 9 with 3 doubles vs Clevinger)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Cleveland Indians: 2 Stars
Kansas City Royals: 1.5 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-260)
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Walker Buehler
This game is pretty easy for me to figure out. I want the power bats of the Dodgers to go along with Buehler against a team that he has dominated in his career. I am interested in the lineup that the Dodgers send out as Kelly has given up a TON of power to RHBs this season so far. Hopefully we get Turner and Taylor in plus spots and they can be included down below in the plays.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta (.235 ISO vs RHP), Ketel Marte (.239 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 22% rate against RHP this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.345 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Joc Pederson (.327 ISO vs RHP), Max Muncy (.271 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: LA is striking out at a 20% rate against RHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Arizona Diamondbacks: 1 Star
Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 Stars
Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. Oakland Athletics
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Gibson vs. Mike Fiers
The Twins are going to be one of my top stacks going up against a HR prone, flyball pitcher. Minnesota is hitting a ton of HRs and this could be a spot where they go off for 4+ HRs tonight. On the other side, as much as I like Kyle Gibson, I am going to be HR hunting with the A’s as well.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz (.478 ISO L7 days), Miguel Sano (.429 ISO L7 days)
4-star plays: Max Kepler (.300 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at just under a 21% rate against RHP this season
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha (.311 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Matt Chapman (.255 ISO vs RHP), Matt Olson (.272 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Minnesota Twins: 4.5 Stars
Oakland Athletics: 3 Stars
St Louis Cardinals (-125) vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Adam Wainwright vs. Mike Leake
This game doesn’t really stand out one way or another for me. I most likely will be avoiding it unless I dig deep into the match-up and find a spot that doesn’t appear to be there at this moment. Both pitchers are decent enough while both offenses are struggling slightly. If I was looking anywhere, it would be the Cardinals side with a couple of bats and Wainwright.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt (8 for 29 with 2 HRs vs Leake), Jose Martinez (.350 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach (.327 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
St Louis Cardinals: 2 Stars
Seattle Mariners: 1.5 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
