Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Charlie Morton – Morton doesn’t need a ton of explanation as he gets to pitch against an Orioles offense that is extremely weak. He has massive K upside in his arm and gets to face BAL at home.
- Patrick Corbin – Corbin has dominated the Marlins this season and while I worry about a team seeing a guy multiple times in a short stretch, I feel like the Marlins are a team that it doesn’t matter for. The spot is absolutely perfect to go overweight on Corbin.
- Jack Flaherty – The K upside in this match-up is through the roof and I will definitely take a shot against the dangerous SD offense. It is definitely far from safe but Flaherty has been excellent vs RHBs this season.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Boston Red Sox (-166) @ Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: David Price vs. Trent Thornton
I think that the TOR side is the one to be on in this spot. There are a few things working in their favor, as BOS had to travel too and then back from London. The jet lag alone could mess with them in this spot against Thornton. Another thing is that the Blue Jays just put up some runs on Monday and they are swinging it really well over the last week. I do NOT think this is an easy spot for Price. I heard a stat on the broadcast of KC-TOR that TOR went from striking out the 9th most in baseball to now striking out the 9th least. The young kids are putting balls in play and battling.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez (.429 ISO L7 days)
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts (.389 ISO L7 days), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.333 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.431 ISO vs LHP this season), Danny Jansen (.538 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at under a 25% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Boston Red Sox: 3.5 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays: 2.5 Stars
Chicago Cubs (-122) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks vs. Joe Musgrove
I am shocked to see the Cubs as the favorite here as Musgrove has looked solid recently and he has very strong numbers against the Cubs roster, while Hendricks is coming off the IL to make the start. As I am typing this the Pirates have put up 18 runs on the Cubs Monday night. The LHBs in the Pirates lineup are a combined 17 for 28 with 10 extra base hits. This Pirates offense is rolling right now.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo (.272 ISO vs RHP), Kyle Schwarber (.252 ISO vs RHP), Jason Heyward (.230 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (.304 ISO L7 days, prior to Monday night)
4-star plays: Corey Dickerson (.364 ISO L7 days), Colin Moran (.212 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Chicago Cubs: 3 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-)
Starting Pitchers: Asher Wojciechowski vs. Charlie Morton
Wojciechowski hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2017 so we don’t have a ton to go on for the most part. He has definitely struggled with LHBs in his 78.2 career MLB innings. Morton should be in line for a solid performance and might end up being the best cash game P on the slate. While the Orioles aren’t anything special in terms of K match-up, they do offer a very sub-par offense.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
TAM 5-star plays: Brandon Lowe (.262 ISO vs RHP), Tommy Pham (.213 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Austin Meadows (.236 ISO vs RHP), Kevin Kiermaier (.313 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Baltimore Orioles: 0.5 Stars (Only reason I have a half star is in case I make a TON of Charlie Morton lineups and need to hedge)
Tampa Bay Rays: 4 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds (-110)
Starting Pitchers: Chase Anderson vs. Tanner Roark
Chase Anderson is a very strong reverse splits pitcher so we definitely want to pay attention to the lineup that the Reds roll out there. They have the ability to get VERY LH heavy. If they do, Chase Anderson becomes a GPP favorite of mine. We want to attack Tanner Roark with LHBs, even though the Brewers aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire right now.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (HR’d Monday night, .395 ISO vs RHP), Eric Thames (.283 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas (.286 ISO vs RHP), Yasmany Grandal (.258 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez (.215 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Nick Senzel (.189 ISO vs RHP, 2-3 with HR against Anderson), Yasiel Puig (.215 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Milwaukee Brewers: 4 Stars
Cincinnati Reds: 2 Stars
Los Angeles Angels (-126) vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Jose Suarez vs. Mike Minor
Originally it looked like Canning would start and I was very interested. With Suarez starting I do have some interest but it is nowhere near the interest I had. Suarez has shown some solid K numbers so far but he has been hit in every start. I do expect the Angels to play inspired baseball in this one. I am tempted to bump them up in my stack ratings but Minor is not an easy match-up.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout (.275 ISO vs LHP), Albert Pujols (.258 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: The Angels strike out at less than a 17% rate against LHP this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo (.382 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at over a 29% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Los Angeles Angels: 2.5 Stars
Texas Rangers: 1.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres (-154)
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Beede vs. Matt Strahm
I love the power in the Padres lineup, against a P that has had some pretty bad performances this season. Beede has a couple of really strong starts but then he has a few that have been really bad. The Padres are one of my favorite GPP stacks, almost every night they are on the slate. I do not think very highly of the Giants in this spot even though they just knocked around an LHP on Monday night.
SFG 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski (.308 ISO vs LHP), Kevin Pillar (.253 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: SF is striking out at under a 25% rate against LHP this season.
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr. (.288 ISO vs RHP), Franmil Reyes (.329 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe (.321 ISO vs RHP), Manny Machado (10 HRs L15 games coming into Monday night)
GPP Note: SD is striking out at under a 27% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
San Francisco Giants: 1.5 Stars
San Diego Padres: 4 Stars
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals (-200)
Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen vs. Patrick Corbin
Corbin has been absolutely dominant against MIA in 2 starts this season and there is a good chance that continues here. The Marlins lineup just lacks punch, for the most part. I see no reason to look to use any Marlins unless you are putting a lot of stock into Corbin in your builds. On the other side, I am a fan of Gallen’s stuff and he looked solid against WAS recently. The final stat line was just solid, even after giving up a few runs.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Alfaro (.224 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHP this season.
WAS 5-star plays: Patrick Cobrin, Anthony Rendon (.309 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Matt Adams (.283 ISO vs RHP), Juan Soto (.353 ISO L7)
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
STACKABILITY:
Miami Marlins: 0.5 Stars
Washington Nationals: 3 Stars
New York Yankees (-138) vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: James Paxton vs. Zack Wheeler
This is a spot similar to the Red Sox as the Yankees are returning from London as well. I really wonder how all that travel is going to affect them to go along with the extreme heat that they played in over there. Their offense is extremely dangerous but I will control my exposures so that I don’t get burned. Wheeler may be an excellent GPP play in this spot.
NYY 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez (.328 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Aaron Judge (.260 ISO vs RHP), Luke Voit (.242 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso (.494 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Todd Frazier (.231 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at under a 25% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
New York Yankees: 3 Stars
New York Mets: 2 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Dallas Keuchel
We have another SP change in this game as Nola will now see the mound instead of Pivetta in this one. Nola has been knocked around at home as he has allowed 3 HR’s per 9 away from the comfort of home. The LHBs have hit him very hard but there are a couple of RH ATL bats that have solid numbers against him. Keuchel doesn’t look ready to go yet as he has been knocked around a bit, especially by RHBs.
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura (.388 ISO vs LHP), Rhys Hoskins (.317 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Bryce Harper (.277 ISO vs LHP), Scott Kingery (.245 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHP this season.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.283 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Austin Riley (.254 ISO vs RHP), Ronald Acuna Jr. (.204 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Philadelphia Phillies: 3.5 Stars
Atlanta Braves: 4 Stars
Detroit Tigers (-132) vs. Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs. Reynaldo Lopez
This game is tough for me to figure out. I prefer Boyd out of the two SPs but I also prefer the White Sox offense out of the two in terms of stacking. Boyd shut down the Tigers and picked up 9 Ks earlier this season and I can definitely see that happening again. The White Sox do have a middle of the lineup that can put up runs against an LHP and they have been swinging it well. Lopez has been pretty bad this season but the Tigers lack the guys to take advantage of him.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Dixon (.236 ISO vs RHP), JaCoby Jones (.220 ISO vs RHP), Matthew Boyd
GPP Note: DET is striking out at nearly a 27% rate against RHP this season.
CWS 5-star plays: James McCann (.250 ISO vs LHP), Jose Abreu (12 for 24 vs Boyd with 2 HRs)
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada (.400 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: The White Sox strike out at over a 25% rate against LHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Detroit Tigers: 2 Stars
Chicago White Sox: 2.5 Stars
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies (-136)
Starting Pitchers: Jose Urquidy vs. German Marquez
This is a game that I expect us to have a TON of conversations about in Slack chat Tuesday. Urquidy has had some impressive showings in the minors so it will be interesting as to what we can uncover about him tomorrow. I will be doing my best to locate some pitch type information on him so that we can see if his stuff will play in Coors. He has been really strong in the PCL (a hitter’s league) this season. Marquez is a guy that can pitch in Coors but the match-up is difficult. I think both the offenses and both SPs could be in play tomorrow. Join me in the chat to discuss this kid making his debut.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.400 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (.312 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Alex Bregman (.250 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (.250 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just an 18% rate against RHP this season.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (.352 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: David Dahl (.233 ISO vs RHP), Nolan Arenado (.230 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at nearly a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Houston Astros: 4 Stars
Colorado Rockies: 4 Stars
Cleveland Indians (-174) vs. Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Bauer vs. Jakob Junis
What do we do with the Cleveland Indians? Every time that we focus on stacking them, they tend to crash and burn. This is another spot that I find them viable for GPP stacking while KC is in a rough spot against Bauer. Bauer had a little rough stretch but looks to have things straightened out a bit. He was also very open on Twitter about the death of Skaggs and offered one of the more heartfelt messages after finding out. I expect to see some extra motivation from his end.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor (.237 ISO vs RHP, 10 for 19 3 HRs vs Junis), Carlos Santana (.289 ISO vs RHP, 5 for 10 vs Junis)
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin (.400 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler (.290 ISO vs RHP), Hunter Dozier (.312 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Cleveland Indians: 3 Stars
Kansas City Royals: 1.5 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-240)
Starting Pitchers: Taylor Clarke vs. Ross Stripling
I would expect Stripling to continue to be stretched out. He reached the 60 pitch mark last time out so it is safe to assume he should land around the 75 pitch mark here. I don’t think that’s enough to put him in play but he is getting close. I want some offense in this game as it opened with a total at 9, in Dodger stadium. The obvious plays are on the Dodgers where they offer a TON of power.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta (.235 ISO vs RHP), Ketel Marte (.239 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Alex Avila (.347 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 22% rate against RHP this season.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.345 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Joc Pederson (.327 ISO vs RHP), Max Muncy (.271 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: LA is striking out at a 20% rate against RHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 Stars
Minnesota Twins (-122) vs. Oakland Athletics
Starting Pitchers: Jake Odorizzi vs. Daniel Mengden
I am a big fan of Odorizzi but I feel like he has hit a mid-season wall. He has struggled a bit the last few starts but those starts were against teams that have familiarity with him. The ballpark is large enough that both Ps are in play but the park also surpresses strike outs due to the large foul territory. There are a lot of HR’s in the plays listed below, so while I always love to stack these two teams, I might just try to go HR hunting in this game.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz (.478 ISO L7 days), Miguel Sano (.429 ISO L7 days)
4-star plays: Max Kepler (.300 ISO L7 days)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at just under a 21% rate against RHP this season
OAK 5-star plays: Mark Canha (.311 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Matt Chapman (.255 ISO vs RHP), Matt Olson (.272 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Minnesota Twins: 4 Stars
Oakland Athletics: 3 Stars
St Louis Cardinals (-138) vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Matt Carasiti
Carasiti is opening, while LeBlanc is expected to be the bulk reliever for the Mariners in this one. So because of that I am going to look at the Cardinals against LHP. Both teams are struggling mightily but I feel like the Cardinals have to bust out at some point. They have too much talent in their lineup to continue to struggle. Flaherty is in a great spot against a weak Mariners lineup.
STL 5-star plays: Marcell Ozuna (.261 ISO vs LHP), Jack Flaherty
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt (.240 ISO vs LHP), Paul DeJong (.208 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHP this season.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach (.327 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
St Louis Cardinals: 2.5 Stars
Seattle Mariners: 1.5 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
