Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Trevor Bauer
- Madison Bumgarner
- Chris Sale
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (-147) – Game 1
Starting Pitchers: Yonny Chirinos vs Domingo German
This game is all about the pitching for me. German has been absolutely filthy when pitching at home this season as he has an ERA of 1.98 with an average against him of .194 in Yankee stadium. Surprisingly he has given up just 3 of his 13 HRs allowed this season at home. Chirinos has made 4 appearances (2 starts) against the Yankees this season and has given up at least 1 HR in 3 of them. The Yankees haven’t been able to blow him up at all and with him being a reverse splits guy, he is capable of pitching around the short porch in RF. I think the best bats to use in this game are the Yankees RHBs as one-offs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows (.236 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit (4 for 7 vs Chirinos)
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion (.714 ISO L7)
GPP Note: NYY is striking out at a 23% rate
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays – 2 Stars
New York Yankees – 2.5 Stars
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (-118) – Game 2
Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs Undecided
The rumor swirling around is that the Yankees are going to go with a bullpen game for game 2 as they have pushed Happ’s start back to Friday. Morton has 16 Ks in 9.2 innings against the Yankees this season. He has given up 3 HRs in those 9.2 innings so there is some risk in his arm but I like his K ability against this lineup.
TB 5-star plays: Nate Lowe (.588 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Austin Meadows (.583 ISO L7), Yandy Diaz (.364 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Without knowing what the Yankees are going to do, it’s tough to figure out how to attack them. Pay attention to updates on the potential order of RPs being used.
NYY 5-star plays: Brett Gardner (8 for 14, 3 HRs vs Morton)
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion (.310 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: NYY is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays – 3 Stars
New York Yankees – 2 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies (-105)
Starting Pitchers: Ross Stripling vs Aaron Nola
Nola has been a TON better at home this season and he makes a sneaky option but the Dodgers bats are just on a roll right now. I can see this game offering HRs or a pitchers duel. Both outcomes would not shock me. Stripling as struggled more with RH power bats than the LH ones. Nola has impressive numbers against this LAD roster in his career.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.563 ISO L7), A.J. Pollock (.429 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Justin Turner (.350 ISO L7), Alex Verdugo (.400 ISO vs L7)
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins (.251 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: JT Realmuto (.214 ISO L7)
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3.5 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies: 3.5 Stars
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg vs Julio Teheran
This match-up is full of history as both sides have a lot of PAs against the opposing SPs. The game being in ATL favors both SPs as Strasburg has been far better on the road and Teheran has been far better at home in 2019. The best way to attack Strasburg is with RHBs (and Freeman, that BvP!) while the best way to go at Teheran is with LHBs.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (.295 ISO vs RHP), Trea Turner (7 for 15 vs Teheran)
4-star plays: Juan Soto (.235 ISO vs RHP), Matt Adams (.271 ISO vs RHP)
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman (18 for 53 with 4 HRs, 6 doubles vs Strasburg)
4-star plays: Austin Riley (3 for 6 vs Strasburg)
Stackability:
Washington Nationals – 3 Stars
Atlanta Braves – 3 Stars
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians (-208)
Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd vs Trevor Bauer
The Tigers roster has a K rate of over 28% against Bauer in their careers, while the Indians have a K rate of just 14% against Boyd. Boyd has given up 3 HRs in 12 innings to the Indians in 2019. Bauer has given up 4 HRs in 3 starts against the Tigers and has allowed 24 hits but also has 20 strikeouts.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christin Stewart (.353 ISO L7)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Oscar Mercado (.500 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Carlos Santana (.400 ISO L7), Jose Ramirez (.313 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at under a 22% rate vs LHP this season.
Stackability:
Detroit Tigers – 0.5 Stars
Cleveland Indians – 3 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox (-)
Starting Pitchers: Thomas Pannone vs Chris Sale
Pannone threw 60 pitches in the minors on the 14th so I am not sure what kind of performance we are looking at here. Prior to that, he threw 76 pitches in an appearance against this Boston team. Sale has struggled against this TOR roster and because of that, I want to make sure I have exposure to them as a stack. I will definitely be using Chris Sale as he has nearly a 39% K rate when pitching at home this season.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.408 ISO vs LHP), Randal Grichuk (6 for 15 with 2 HRs vs Sale)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 24% rate against LHP this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts (.316 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: JD Martinez (.397 ISO vs LHP), Christian Vazquez (.253 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Toronto Blue Jays – 2 Stars
Boston Red Sox – 3 Stars
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San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins (-113)
Starting Pitchers: Dinelson Lamet vs Caleb Smith
I normally love Caleb Smith but I do have reservations in this one as SD has a bunch of power to throw at him in the middle of the lineup. His K numbers should be there but there is a risk in terms of allowing a few HRs here. Lamet has made 2 starts in his return from Tommy-john surgery and has managed to go 5 innings in each and pick up 7 strikeouts in each. Both games have come against tougher opponents than this one will be against so he is definitely in play. I just don’t see him throwing much more than 85 pitches in this start.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado (.467 ISO vs LHP), Hunter Renfroe (.467 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes (.231 ISO vs LHP, 3 for 8 2 HRs vs Smith)
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
San Diego Padres – 2 Stars
Miami Marlins – 0.5 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks (EVEN)
Starting Pitchers: Zach Davies vs Merrill Kelly
This is a match-up of two very similar pitchers that should lead to the offense but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a pitcher’s duel as well. Davies is far from a strikeout guy but he does limit hard contact but he does allow baserunners. Kelly has more strikeout ability in his arm but he also gives up more hard contact and can be beaten by some HR balls. Out of the 16 HRs that Kelly has allowed this season, 11 have come from RHBs.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (.413 ISO vs RHP), Keston Hiura (.296 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas (.276 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP this season.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte (.233 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Jake Lamb (.400 ISO L7)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Milwaukee Brewers – 3.5 Stars
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2 Stars
St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds (-120)
Starting Pitchers: Dakota Hudson vs Tanner Roark
I really like Hudson’s groundball ability and think this kid has some upside moving forward. He has thrown 12 innings against the Reds this season but has just 4 Ks against them. That number worries me a bit as does his walk numbers. The Reds were just shut down by a P with some walk issues on Wednesday so that is a plus (for Hudson). Roark is a guy that I feel like is worse than he actually shows. I always target him with some bats and he seems to leave me disappointed (other than when he pitched in Coors).
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kolten Wong (2 for 6 with 2 doubles vs Roark)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yasiel Puig (4 for 8 vs Hudson), Jesse Winker (3 for 5 vs Hudson)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at nearly a 25% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
St Louis Cardinals – 2.5 Stars
Cincinnati Reds – 2 Stars
Oakland A’s vs Minnesota Twins (-136)
Starting Pitchers: Mike Fiers vs Kyle Gibson
This is another game that I could see hitting double digits in runs or finishing like 4-3. Both pitchers have shown strong outings but have also shown the ability to get hit hard. I like Gibson more due to K.Davis struggling and Chapman having left Wednesday’s game with an injury. Fiers always walks a dangerous line with his flyballs as this Twins team could hit 5 HRs in this game and it wouldn’t shock me.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano (4 for 5 HR vs Gibson, .667 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Matt Olson (3 for 6 HR vs Gibson)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz (6 for 17 HR vs Fiers)
4-star plays: CJ Cron (4 for 20 3 HRs vs Fiers), Miguel Sano (.300 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Oakland A’s – 2.5 Stars
Minnesota Twins – 3.5 Stars
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals (-)
Starting Pitchers: Ross Detwiler vs Brad Keller
This game doesn’t entice me at all. The offenses are in the better spots but both offenses are pretty weak overall. I would target one-offs in this game but even then I don’t necessarily love it. Detwiler doesn’t offer us any K upside, even against a team that can strike out against LHP. Keller offers us more K upside but I would argue that the White Sox lineup is more dangerous.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Leury Garcia (7 for 19 2 doubles vs Keller)
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield (.282 ISO vs LHP), Cheslor Cuthbert (.231 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 25% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Chicago White Sox – 2.5 Stars
Kansas City Royals – 2.5 Stars
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Noah Syndergaard vs Madison Bumgarner
If you take away the Posey and Panik combo (8 for 26) the rest of the Giants roster is a combined 9 for 63 against Syndergaard in their careers. The SF RHBs are the ones that could cause issues for Syndergaard but his HR and walk numbers are much lower on the road than they are at home this season. This park is ideal for Syndergaard to pitch in. This could be Bumgarner’s last start in SF so I expect him to have a little motivation for the home crowd, even though I like a few bats from the Mets.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso (.442 ISO vs LHP, 1 HR vs Bumgarner)
4-star plays: Todd Frazier (7 for 17 2 HRs vs Bumgarner), Wilson Ramos (7 for 19 2 HRs vs Bumgarner)
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at just over a 24% rate against LHP this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
New York Mets – 2.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants – 1.5 Stars
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley vs Matt Harvey
Harvey has given up an OPS of .970 to LHBs this season. He made his return recently and looked solid but now he faces one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Miley is in a solid spot but his K upside is extremely low. He is one of those pitchers that almost never gets blown up which raises his floor, even without the Ks.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer (.306 ISO vs RHP, HR vs Harvey)
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.348 ISO vs RHP), Michael Brantley
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just over an 18% rate against RHP this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Albert Pujols (4 for 12 2 HRs vs Miley), Justin Upton (4 for 13 2 HRs vs Miley)
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just a 17% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Houston Astros – 4 Stars
Los Angeles Angels – 2.5 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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