Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
First Things First – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start by looking at the Research Station and find my main targets based on which teams on the slate have the lowest ISO and wOBA’s against that pitcher’s handedness. From there I then go to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. After my initial research, I’d rank my top 3 as of now at:
- Robbie Ray – Our Carnage Report gives Ray a KSCORE of 655 which is well above guys like Cole and Clevinger on this slate. Texas strikes out a TON vs LHP so the upside is massive here. He is by far my top SP option.
- Daniel Ponce de Leon – Has the number 1 Carnage rating for the early games on our report and his numbers against LHBs have been absolutely elite (smaller sample size). He offers us the best VKSCORE as well on the early slate.
- Chris Paddack – Paddack offers us the 2nd highest VKSCORE on the main slate, behind Robbie Ray. I love the ability in this kids arm while facing one of the weakest offenses out there against RHP.
After I get finished looking at pitching, I move on to my hitters. I look for which teams have the highest ISO against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. ISO stands for Isolated Power and it is defined as:
ISO measures the raw power of a hitter by taking only extra-base hits — and the type of extra-base hit — into account. For example, a player who goes 1-for-5 with a double has an ISO of .200.
Where do we get most of our fantasy points in DFS baseball? Home runs, and if a player has a high ISO it usually correlates very well with extra-base hits and home runs. So the higher a player’s ISO is, the more likely they are to produce hitting for extra bases and home runs, which in turn = more fantasy points! An average ISO is right around .140 and an elite ISO is anything above .250. Teams with the highest ISO’s on the slate tend to score more runs and are in turn more stackable. For more info on how to use ISO to your advantage, check out dabbingpuggle’s Tournament Strategy Guide here!
Full Count Breakdown:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (-147)
Starting Pitchers: Yonny Chirinos vs Domingo German
This game is all about the pitching for me. German has been absolutely filthy when pitching at home this season as he has an ERA of 1.98 with an average against him of .194 in Yankee stadium. Surprisingly he has given up just 3 of his 13 HRs allowed this season at home. Chirinos has made 4 appearances (2 starts) against the Yankees this season and has given up at least 1 HR in 3 of them. The Yankees haven’t been able to blow him up at all and with him being a reverse splits guy, he is capable of pitching around the short porch in RF. I think the best bats to use in this game are the Yankees RHBs as one-offs.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Meadows (.236 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at over a 23% rate against RHP this season.
NYY 5-star plays: Luke Voit (4 for 7 vs Chirinos)
4-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion (.714 ISO L7)
GPP Note: NYY is striking out at a 23% rate
Stackability:
Tampa Bay Rays – 2 Stars
New York Yankees – 2.5 Stars
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Starting Pitchers: Kenta Maeda vs Nick Pivetta
This game sets up to be one full of offense today. Maeda has been bad on the road so far in 2019, his road ERA is over 3 runs higher than his home ERA this season. Pivetta has a WHIP of 1.63 when pitching at home and that can lead to some big innings with the power that the Dodgers have been putting on display. Pivetta is also giving up nearly 2.2 HR/9 this season. Game stacks are definitely in play here.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.563 ISO L7), A.J. Pollock (.429 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Justin Turner (.350 ISO L7), Alex Verdugo (.400 ISO vs L7)
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto (4 for 11, 2 HRs vs Maeda)
4-star plays: Jay Bruce (.356 ISO vs RHP w/PHI), Rhys Hoskins (.251 ISO vs RHP)
Stackability:
Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 Stars
Philadelphia Phillies: 3 Stars
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs Aaron Brooks
Brooks is giving up just over 2 HR/9 so far this season and we know that the Orioles bullpen has given up a bunch of HRs as well. Nearly half of the hits that Brooks has given up in 2019 have gone for extra bases. He has been pretty decent over his last 15.2 innings but most of those came out of the bullpen. Fedde is not a strikeout guy as he has just 22 of them in 40.1 innings to go with 19 walks. I think that people are going to use Fedde blindly and that is a mistake in my book. He is getting knocked around by LHBs in 2019 as they have an OPS of .918 against him.
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (.295 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Juan Soto (.235 ISO vs RHP), Matt Adams (.271 ISO vs RHP)
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Chance Sisco (.348 ISO vs RHP), Trey Mancini (.214 ISO vs RHP)
Stackability:
Washington Nationals – 4 Stars
Baltimore Orioles – 2.5 Stars
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians (-240)
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Turnbull vs Mike Clevinger
This game looks ugly as Clevinger should be in line for an impressive stat line and the Indians offense is going up against a pitcher that they have knocked around to a triple-slash line of .396/.448/.585. Teams are 12 for 13 in stolen bases against Turnbull this season (random stat). He has thrown 14 innings against CLE in 2019 and allowed 11 runs on 24 hits and 5 walks.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christin Stewart (.353 ISO L7)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP this season.
CLE 5-star plays: Oscar Mercado (.500 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Carlos Santana (.400 ISO L7), Jose Ramirez (.313 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at a 23% rate vs RHP this season.
Stackability:
Detroit Tigers – 0.5 Stars
Cleveland Indians – 4 Stars
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox (-250)
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Sanchez vs Eduardo Rodriguez
Sanchez has been surprisingly tough on BOS throughout his career. This season he has given up just 3 earned runs across 11 innings while racking up 10 strikeouts against BOS. Over the last 3+ seasons, he has thrown 62.1 innings against BOS and has allowed just 6 HRs. I do think BOS makes sense as a GPP stack but I am going to guess I will be taking an underweight approach to them. Rodriguez gave up 6 runs and 3 HRs across 5 innings against TOR earlier this season. The Blue Jays could be a sneaky stack and I would include an LHB or two as lefties have 8 HRs in just 101 ABs against Rodriguez this season.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.408 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at over a 24% rate against LHP this season.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers (.253 ISO vs RHP), Xander Bogaerts (.248 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Mookie Betts (.224 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Toronto Blue Jays – 2 Stars
Boston Red Sox – 3 Stars
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San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins (-133)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Paddack vs Trevor Richards
This game could be filled with strikeouts and that definitely has my attention. Both teams are striking out at a high rate against RHP this season. Paddack is somebody I was impressed with during spring training and he has had a few really stellar starts to go with some hiccups along the way during his rookie season. Even during his rough stretches, his Ks have held steady through the season so far. On the other side, Richards has 7 Ks in the 16 ABs that this SD roster has against him. Those numbers were from this season as he made a start against them and struck out 8 guys in 5 innings while giving up just 1 hit.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr. (.306 ISO vs RHP), Franmil Reyes (.312 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP this season.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper (.636 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at nearly a 26% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
San Diego Padres – 1.5 Stars
Miami Marlins – 1 Star
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers (-112)
Starting Pitchers: Robbie Ray vs Jesse Chavez
The D’Backs are a sneaky team here as Chavez has given up 16 runs over his last 16.1 innings but most are going to blindly fire LHBs against him and leave out guys like Jones and Walker. Chavez has been a very strong reverse splits pitcher so I am going to make sure to start my stacks with some RHBs, with a couple of switch hitters added in. Ray is in a solid spot against a team that strikes out a TON vs LHP this season. He struck out 10 guys in 5 innings in an earlier start against TEX this season.
ARZ 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ketel Marte (.400 ISO L7), Christian Walker (.263 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Gallo (.406 ISO vs LHP), Hunter Pence (7 for 18 with 7 walks against Ray)
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at nearly a 29% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2.5 Stars
Texas Rangers – 1.5 Stars
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Starting Pitchers: Sonny Gray vs Yu Darvish
This game strikes me as a one-off GPP play game as both Ps can be really good (Gray has certainly been better than Darvish this season). Gray has really strong numbers against this Cubs roster as they are combining for an average well under .200 against him. Gray has 13 Ks in 11.1 innings against the Cubs this season but he has allowed 3 HRs against them. Darvish has 16 Ks in 12.1 innings against CIN and has also allowed 3 HRs but has also given up 17 hits and 8 runs.
CIN 5-star plays: Yasiel Puig (.350 ISO L7), Eugenio Suarez (.550 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Derek Dietrich (.286 ISO L7, 4 for 9 2 HRs vs Darvish), Jesse Winker (.240 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP this season.
CHC 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber (.550 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Jason Heyward (.238 ISO L7), Kris Bryant (.333 ISO L7)
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Cincinnati Reds – 3 Stars
Chicago Cubs – 2.5 Stars
New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins (-165)
Starting Pitchers: Jason Vargas vs Martin Perez
Both of the SPs have made a relief appearance against the opponent this season and neither one fared very well. Vargas was smacked for 4 runs in one inning of work while Perez gave up 3 runs in 2 innings. Perez has done a great job of keeping the ball in the park this season while pitching better at home than on the road. Vargas has been hit around on the road this season but somehow he manages to put up respectable lines at times. I am all over the Twins side here in this one.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso (.458 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Todd Frazier (.246 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: NYM is striking out at over a 24% rate against LHP this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Mitch Garver (.373 ISO vs LHP), Nelson Cruz (.321 ISO vs LHP, 12 for 33 with 5 HRs against Vargas)
4-star plays: Miguel Sano (.353 ISO vs LHP), CJ Cron (.333 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 20% rate against LHP this season.
Stackability:
New York Mets – 2 Stars
Minnesota Twins – 4 Stars
Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers (-105)
Starting Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs Chase Anderson
I think this game sets up for some offense here as I have zero interest in either pitcher in this game. I am going to prefer the RHBs here but will not avoid the LHBs at all. The Braves lineup is dangerous as they should have a bunch of RHBs in dangerous lineup spots, against a P that is very much a reverse splits guy. The Brewers busted out a bit last night and I think there is a good chance some of that carries over, even against a former CY Young winner.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr. (.261 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman (.288 ISO vs RHP), Josh Donaldson (.264 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP this season.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich (.313 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Keston Hiura (.500 ISO L7), Ryan Braun (.313 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just over a 23% rate against LHP this season.
STACKABILITY:
Atlanta Braves – 3 Stars
Milwaukee Brewers – 3.5 Stars
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals (-130)
Starting Pitchers: Ivan Nova vs Danny Duffy
This is a game that I have very little interest in. Duffy has some ugly numbers against a couple of the White Sox bats but this White Sox team was just shutout by Sparkman last night and Duffy is definitely a better P than Sparkman is. Nova isn’t all that good but this Royals offense isn’t all that good either. I can see using a guy here or there as a one-off play but nothing here excites me.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: James McCann (.232 ISO vs LHP), Jose Abreu (.211 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at nearly a 25% rate against LHP this season.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler (.305 ISO vs RHP), Hunter Dozier (.291 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Chicago White Sox – 2 Stars
Kansas City Royals – 2.5 Stars
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St Louis Cardinals (-140)
Starting Pitchers: Chris Archer vs Daniel Ponce de Leon
I absolutely LOVE both Pitchers in this game. Archer has been really good against STL and Ponce de Leon has been absolutely nasty against LHBs so far this season (4 hits in 41 ABs). I think that people are going to blindly stack PIT based on how they have been over the last month and I want to take advantage of that with Ponce de Leon.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte (.500 ISO L7)
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate against RHP this season.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill (.688 ISO L7)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Pittsburgh Pirates – 2 Stars
St Louis Cardinals – 1.5 Stars
San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies (-172)
Starting Pitchers: Shaun Anderson vs Jon Gray
Another day, another Coors game to deal with. I really like the Rockies side in this one as they are throwing the much better pitcher while having the more dangerous offense. Would not shock me to see the Rockies put up 10+ with 3+ HRs in this spot. Anderson doesn’t rack up strikeouts so putting the ball in play in Coors is a recipe for success.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson (.389 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford (.542 ISO L7), Pablo Sandoval (.264 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: SF is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (.307 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Trevor Story (.280 ISO vs RHP), Daniel Murphy (.450 ISO L7)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
San Francisco Giants – 3 Stars
Colorado Rockies – 4 Stars
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Gerrit Cole vs Felix Pena
Neither team strikes out very much but I think people will look past Cole and his 29% strikeout rate against this Angels roster. We know what kind of K upside he offers on any given night and there is a decent chance that the Angels are without Trout again tonight. On the other side, I sense a let-down game from Pena after the emotional no-hitter last week. It is going to be really tough to replicate that focus and motivation after such a heavy moment.
HOU 5-star plays: Michael Brantley (3 for 3 HR, 2B vs Pena)
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.348 ISO vs RHP), George Springer (.295 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at just over an 18% rate against RHP this season.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: LAA is striking out at just an 18% rate against RHP this season.
Stackability:
Houston Astros – 3.5 Stars
Los Angeles Angels – 1 Star
Seattle Mariners vs Oakland A’s
Starting Pitchers: Erik Swanson/Tommy Milone vs Homer Bailey
The A’s were solid for us last night against an LHP and they get an LHP as the bulk reliever tonight. I will be going right back to them, especially the Matts (Chapman and Olson). The Seattle offense is a mess and Bailey is making his debut with the A’s today. I could see guys like Vogelbach and Santana being in great spots but the overall offense is just too weak to want to target.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach (.305 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Chapman (.356 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Matt Olson (.389 ISO vs LHP), Khris Davis (.259 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just an 18% rate against LHP (Milone) this season.
Stackability:
Seattle Mariners – 1.5 Stars
Oakland A’s – 3 Stars
Make sure to check out the Coaches Notes/Players Picks as they will have this game covered for you in all areas. The pricing is so much different from the main slate that it can be tough to breakdown from a DFS standpoint. With that said, at first glance, I would be attacking the Cardinals offense and hoping to jump on them while the field views them as terrible plays after they haven’t scored many runs over the past week or so.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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