Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Domination Station
We have updated our DS MLB optimizer with more customization options and it should be rolling out of BETA at any point. Kevin does a spectacular job of explaining the new additions to the optimizer and how it differentiates us from the rest. I love checking out who the DS has rated highly via projections and the DFS Army grades. You DEFINITELY need to add this into your daily process. When I am building just a handful of lineups, I use it to get an idea of who it likes. When I am multi entering, I am always tweaking the stacks around to get the exposures I want before exporting.
Domination Station Tutorial Update
Full Count Breakdown:
Atlanta Braves (-115) vs Washington Nationals
Mike Soroka vs Anibal Sanchez
Soroka’s numbers on the road have been downright astonishing. He has made 10 starts on the road in 2019 and has allowed just 8 earned runs. Opponents are hitting just .198 against him on the road and he has allowed just 5 HRs in 107 innings total. Sanchez has given up 7 runs across 17 innings against the Braves this season and has racked up 17 Ks in those games. He has held them to an average of just .203 in those 3 starts.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies (.231 ISO L7), Freddie Freeman (.270 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Brian McCann (13 for 41, 3 HRs vs Sanchez), Ender Inciarte (.400 ISO L7)
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (.400 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Matt Adams (.286 ISO L7, HR vs Soroka), Adam Eaton (.286 ISO L7)
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Chicago Cubs (-110) vs St Louis Cardinals
Kyle Hendricks vs Miles Mikolas
Hendricks has given up just 1 run to the Cardinals across 16 innings in 2019. He does have just 6 Ks in those 16 innings and both of those starts came in Wrigley, where Hendricks has been elite. He has a road ERA near 5 on the season. Mikolas has faced the Cubs twice this season and has given up 4 runs across 11 innings with 7 Ks. He has been very strong pitching at home so far in 2019. This game makes me want to consider just one-off bats. I do not think either pitcher has elite level upside on this slate.
CHC 5-star plays: Jason Heyward (4 for 14 4 Walks vs Mikolas)
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo (5 for 15 vs Mikolas), Kyle Schwarber (.400 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt (.600 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Paul DeJong (.600 ISO L7), Dexter Fowler (.467 ISO L7)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP
Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals (-115)
Jacob Waguespack vs Jakob Junis
I think this game is going to be sneaky for some power upside. Junis can give up the long ball and the Blue Jays have some dangerous hitters. Waguespack has been reverse splits in and that really brings Soler and Dozier in play. I prefer TOR as a stack and the Royals bats as one-off options.
TOR 5-star plays: Cavan Biggio (.300 ISO L7), Justin Smoak (.333 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.261 ISO L7), Teoscar Hernandez (.476 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler (.294 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier (.281 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Andrew Kittredge vs Rick Porcello
Kittredge will be the opener for the Rays. He is coming off of a 3 inning performance as an opener where he struck out 7. I would expect him to be around 2 innings as long as he isn’t knocked around in the first. The Red Sox bats are white-hot right now so it is going to be a tall task for the Rays bullpen. Porcello hasn’t fared all too well against TB as a handful of guys have strong numbers against him. Have to check the lineup to see who is still out with injury.
TB 5-star plays: Ji-Man Choi (5 or 13, 3 extra-base hits vs Porcello)
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud (.350 ISO L7), Willy Adames (.467 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at under a 24% rate against RHP
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts (.480 ISO L7), JD Martinez (.385 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi (.346 ISO L7), Xander Bogaerts (.321 ISO L7), Rafael Devers (.321 ISO L7)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Jeff Samardzija vs Vince Velasquez
Samardzija has been spectacular in July as he has allowed just 9 runs across 32.2 innings while striking out 30. He has held batters to an average of just .195 in July. Velasquez has finally gotten stretched out as he threw 110 pitches in his last start, which was all the way back on July 24th. He was given some extra time off so I am not as worried about the big pitch total in his last start. This game seems like a pitcher’s duel with PHI’s offense being a GPP option for stacking purposes.
SF 5-star plays: Alex Dickerson (.403 ISO vs RHP, .357 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Pablo Sandoval (.412 ISO L7, 3 for 9 2B vs Velasquez)
GPP Note: SF is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto (.409 ISO L7), Jean Segura (.333 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins (.238 ISO L7), Bryce Harper (.222 ISO L7)
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees (-135)
Zack Greinke vs Masahiro Tanaka
The SPs are on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of their July performance. While Greinke has been strong and allowed just 8 runs over 4 July starts, Tanaka has managed to allow 23 runs in his 4 starts. This game does have a total set at 10 runs and I think it ends up under that total as I think Tanaka straightens something out here and maybe gives us 5 strong innings before giving way to the bullpen.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte (3 for 7 HR vs Tanaka)
4-star plays: Carson Kelly (.636 ISO L7), Jake Lamb (.385 ISO L7)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 22% rate against RHP
NYY 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius (.462 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Gio Urshela (.421 ISO L7), Edwin Encarnacion (.286 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Yankees are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds (-210)
Dario Agrazal vs Luis Castillo
While Agrazal doesn’t strike anybody out, he limits LHBs a TON and is actually beaten by RHBs. With that said, CIN actually just traded away a potent RHB from the middle of their lineup. Definitely, need to pay attention to the lineup to see what kind of RHBs we are going to see for CIN. On the other side, Castillo is coming off of a bad bad start against COL. I expect him to bounce back here and he has strong numbers against PIT.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Colin Moran (5 for 9 HR vs Castillo), Bryan Reynolds (.316 ISO L7)
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate against RHP
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez (.333 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Josh VanMeter (.579 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP
New York Mets (-160) vs Chicago White Sox
Jacob deGrom vs Lucas Giolito
I think there is a strong chance this game turns into a pitcher’s duel. We don’t need to say much about deGrom here as the White Sox strike out a ton against RHP and he has been absolutely locked in since his early-season struggles. I obviously want zero exposure to any White Sox bats. Giolito has been getting hit around a bit but his K numbers are still very strong. The Mets overall offense doesn’t scare me much and Giolito is actually a reverse splits SP.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto (.304 ISO L7), Pete Alonso (.300 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: JD Davis (.455 ISO L7), Jeff McNeil (.267 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
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Houston Astros (-140) vs Cleveland Indians
Jose Urquidy vs Zach Plesac
We saw a ton of Ks and great pitching performances in this game on Tuesday and now we should see a bit of offense. Have to believe that both offenses are glad that Tuesday is over. Both teams have a handful of guys who are swinging the bat really while and picking up extra-base hits. This game opened with a total set at 10 runs.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.333 ISO L7)
4-star plays: George Springer (.476 ISO L7), Jose Altuve (.350 ISO L7)
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at under a 19% rate against RHP
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez (.538 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor (.313 ISO L7), Carlos Santana (.250 ISO L7)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Minnesota Twins (-175) vs Miami Marlins
Jose Berrios vs Sandy Alcantara
This game is going to offer us one of the lowest totals on the slate and that is going to intrigue me. Both SPs are definitely in play with Berrios being a top Cash game option against an MIA team that strikes out a ton against RHPs. Alcantara has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, especially at home. He does give up a LOT of doubles on the season, especially to RHBs.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler (.435 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Miguel Sano (.522 ISO L7), Jorge Polanco (.296 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics (-125)
Jordan Lyles vs Brett Anderson
I sneakily will be on Lyles in his return to the Brewers. Lyles has dominated against RHBs all season long with his struggles really only against LHBs with power ability. I also think this is a spot the Brewers offense busts out a little bit with the use of the DH and the ability for them to get another power bat into the lineup. This Brewers team may win somebody a GPP today.
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura (.389 ISO L7), Ryan Braun (4 for 7 HR vs Anderson)
4-star plays: Manny Pina (.429 ISO vs LHP, 2 for 4 2 2Bs vs Anderson), Christian Yelich (.305 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at a 23% rate against LHP
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson (.247 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Marcus Semien (.318 ISO L7), Ramon Laureano (.278 ISO L7)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just under a 22% rate against RHP
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers
Undecided vs Mike Minor
Waiting on SEA’s SP
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach (2 for 5 2HRs vs Minor)
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at just under a 27% rate against LHP
TEX 5-star plays:
4-star plays:
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at
Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) vs Colorado Rockies
Hyun-Jin Ryu vs German Marquez
This game could be higher scoring than you would think with the names of the SPs. Ryu has struggled in Coors and a couple of the Rockies have REALLY strong numbers against him. Marquez just doesn’t scare me in Coors, against the power of the Dodgers. I will be stacking this game multiple ways with zero interest in either of the SPs at this point.
LAD 5-star plays: AJ Pollock (9 for 19 vs Marquez), Justin Turner (.318 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.357 ISO vs RHP), Will Smith (.640 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: Dodgers are striking out at under a 21% rate against RHP
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado (14 for 23 4 HRs 4 2Bs vs Ryu)
4-star plays: Ian Desmond (.320 ISO vs LHP, 5 for 10 3 2Bs vs Ryu)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels
Daniel Norris vs Jose Suarez
This game screams all LAA to me as the Tigers strike out against everybody and Suarez has shown flashes of K ability. The Tigers do have a few bats that can drive the ball against LHPs. I like the Angels offense against Norris, even though Norris has been strong over his last couple of starts. I think Trout has a big game (think something like 4 for 5 with 2 HRs and a double).
DET 5-star plays: Nicholas Castellanos
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera (.250 ISO L7), John Hicks (.400 ISO L7)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 26% rate against LHP
LAA 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun (.483 ISO L7, 3 for 5 HR vs Norris), Mike Trout (.310 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Albert Pujols (.250 ISO vs LHP), Matt Thaiss (.600 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Angels are striking out at a 17% rate against LHP
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
