Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Domination Station and Pitching
We have updated our DS MLB optimizer with more customization options and it should be rolling out of BETA at any point. Kevin does a spectacular job of explaining the new additions to the optimizer and how it differentiates us from the rest. I love checking out who the DS has rated highly via projections and the DFS Army grades. You DEFINITELY need to add this into your daily process. When I am building just a handful of lineups, I use it to get an idea of who it likes. When I am multi entering, I am always tweaking the stacks around to get the exposures I want before exporting.
Domination Station Tutorial Update
Along with taking in the DS information, I head over to The Carnage Report. This gives me a great look at what SPs are in excellent spots and which ones are in terrible spots. First, I like to list the SPs I want to use in order of my initial thoughts. Second, I then find the group of SPs that I want to make sure I get exposure to bats against. Let’s take a look at a few SPs that stand out for me on this slate (could be good or bad):
- David Price: Price has been electric against TB this season and I feel like he loves facing his former team. The strikeout numbers for him and for TB (facing an LHP) are through the roof here. It will be interesting to see how the Carnage Report feels about Price because I absolutely love him here.
- Noah Syndergaard: There are two reasons Thor makes this list with the first one being the fact that the White Sox strike out a ton against RHPs. We know what kind of upside Syndergaard offers us but that brings me to the second reason he made this list, we don’t know if he will actually make this start or not. I wanted him here to point out that his name is being rumored all over the trade block. WE MUST MONITOR HIS STATUS. If we hear that no trade is imminent then we need to get exposure.
- Yu Darvish: Darvish has been stronger on the road this season and he has been absolutely ELITE against RHBs. The reason I am pointing that out is the fact that the Cardinals’ most dangerous bats swing from the right side. I truly believe that Darvish has a shot to win somebody a GPP on Tuesday night.
Full Count Breakdown:
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals
Julio Teheran vs Erick Fedde
The Nationals picked up a big win in this series on Monday night and that could carry them into this game. On paper, the Braves should have the advantage against Fedde. Fedde has struggled a lot with LHBs this season and the Braves could roll out 5 of them in this game. On the other side, the Nationals have plenty of at-bats against Teheran and while overall they haven’t had a ton of success, a few key guys have done pretty well. Teheran has been much weaker on the road this season as his road ERA sits around 2.2 runs higher.
ATL 5-star plays: Ozzie Albies (.273 ISO L7), Freddie Freeman (.270 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Brian McCann (.214 ISO vs RHP), Ender Inciarte
GPP Note: ATL is striking out at just under a 23% rate against RHP
WAS 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon (.360 ISO L7, 14 for 43 vs Teheran)
4-star plays: Yan Gomes (.600 ISO L7), Trea Turner (7 for 18 vs Teheran)
GPP Note: WAS is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Chicago Cubs (-115) vs St Louis Cardinals
Yu Darvish vs Adam Wainwright
Darvish has been a lot stronger on the road this season and that is evidenced by the 6 innings of 1 run ball he threw at STL. He faced them at Wrigley and gave up 5 runs in 4 innings. Darvish is striking out nearly 32% of the RHBs he is facing in 2019. This bodes very well for him against a dangerous offense. Wainwright pitching at home has been excellent this season. His home ERA sits at 2.33 while his road ERA is just 7.16. This game could turn into a pitcher’s duel and that might end up surprising the casual MLB DFS player.
CHC 5-star plays: Jason Heyward (10 for 33, 4 extra-base hits vs Wainwright)
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo (10 RBI in 53 ABs vs Wainwright), Kyle Schwarber (.450 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Cubs are striking out at a 24% rate against RHP
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt (.621 ISO L7), Paul DeJong (.542 ISO L7), Dexter Fowler (.421 ISO L7)
GPP Note: STL is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP
Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals
Sean Reid-Foley vs Mike Montgomery
I love the Blue Jays when they are facing LHPs. With the recent call up of Bichette, we get to see the young kids play north of the border. I will be stacking them in this spot, even against a pitcher that I think has strong SP ability. Montgomery just never got the chance to be a true starter with the Cubs but that didn’t keep him from having success as he was the one that closed out their World Series title against Cleveland. Reid-Foley has a small sample size at the MLB level but has been hit harder by RHBs to this point.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.379 ISO vs LHP), Brandon Drury (.438 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.273 ISO L7), Teoscar Hernandez (.389 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TOR is striking out at a 24% rate against LHP
KC 5-star plays: Jorge Soler (.294 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier (.281 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: KC is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Charlie Morton vs David Price
This game should be a pitcher’s duel so I am only interested in bats as one-offs and even then I might look elsewhere. You can’t deny how hot the BOS bats are right now but Morton is an elite SP right now. Morton has 25 Ks in 19 innings against Boston this season and has an average against of just .176 in those 19 innings. Price has thrown 23 innings against TB this season and has racked up 35 strikeouts.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud (.333 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TB is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mookie Betts (6 for 15, 2 2Bs vs Morton), Xander Bogaerts (7 for 20, HR 3 2Bs vs Morton)
GPP Note: BOS is striking out at just a 21% rate against RHP
San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Tyler Beede vs Drew Smyly
I am all about the Phillies side here as the Giants do not offer much of an offense to be afraid of, especially against LHPs. Smyly was picked up basically off of the scrap heap and came out and threw a gem in his Phillies debut. While Smyly is going to be tough to trust, I think we can trust the Phillies offense in this spot. I like Beede’s future prospects but he has been very up and down in the majors this season.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pablo Sandoval (.381 ISO L7)
GPP Note: SF is striking out at just under a 25% rate against LHP
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto (.409 ISO L7), Jean Segura (.333 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins (.238 ISO L7), Bryce Harper (.222 ISO L7)
GPP Note: PHI is striking out at just over a 23% rate against RHP
Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres
Tom Eshelman vs Dinelson Lamet
San Diego showed their power potential on Monday night and we know that the Orioles staff LOVES to give up HRs. The Orioles pitching staff has given up 200 HRs on the season. The Twins offense just recently became the fastest to reach 200 HRs hit in a season. San Diego is in a prime spot for stack purposes and one-offs here. Lamet has elite stuff but he won’t be allowed to go much more than 80-85 pitches (which is basically 5 innings) as he is coming off of Tommy-John surgery. In his MLB career, Lamet has been dominant against RHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander (.273 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Renato Nunez (.321 ISO L7), Trey Mancini (.265 ISO L7)
GPP Note: BAL is striking out at over a 23% rate against RHP
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Hedges (.333 ISO L7), Wil Myers (.385 ISO L7)
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP
Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees (-230)
Taylor Clarke vs J.A. Happ
This game has a ridiculously high total for not happening in Coors. The line is set at 11.5 runs with the Yankees being big favorites. New York bats are in an EXCELLENT spot and there should be a lot of extra-base hits in this game. Happ has been really up and down on the season and the Diamondbacks have a few guys that are absolutely raking against LHPs. I will have a handful of game stacks here.
ARI 5-star plays: Eduardo Escobar (.315 ISO vs LHP), Ketel Marte (.303 ISO vs LHP)
4-star plays: Carson Kelly (.434 ISO vs LHP), Nick Ahmed (.211 ISO L7)
GPP Note: ARI is striking out at a 21% rate against LHP
NYY 5-star plays: Didi Gregorius (.462 ISO L7), Aaron Hicks (.231 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Gio Urshela (.522 ISO L7), Edwin Encarnacion (.250 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Yankees are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds (-125)
Joe Musgrove vs Tanner Roark
The Pirates offense has been on the cold side after a scorching couple of weeks. They managed 6 runs on Monday night but 4 of those came on a 2 out swing in a L v L situation. I really think that Roark makes sense for GPPs while the Reds offense has some dangerous bats right now. I wouldn’t be shocked if Musgrove pitched well but I do want a stack or two of the Reds.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell (4 for 9 2 HR 2 2B vs Roark)
4-star plays: Jacob Stallings (.286 ISO L7, 2 for 3 vs Roark)
GPP Note: PIT is striking out at under a 20% rate against RHP
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez (.591 ISO L7, 3 for 8, HR 2B vs Musgrove), Josh VanMeter (.667 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Joey Votto (3 for 9 2 2Bs vs Musgrove), Scooter Gennett (2 for 5 HR vs Musgrove, 5 for 15 over L4)
GPP Note: CIN is striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP
New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox
Noah Syndergaard vs Reynaldo Lopez
We HAVE to pay attention to the trade rumors here as Syndergaard could be traded and either scratched or removed early in the game. I am not sure what the Mets are doing as they acquired Stroman but then dealt away Vargas. The White Sox are striking out a ton against RHP so Syndergaard is definitely in play if we get confirmation that he won’t be dealt (which likely won’t happen). Lopez makes for an interesting GPP option as does the Mets lineup for stacking purposes. I don’t have a strong lean either way in this spot. We know that Lopez can struggle mightily with LHBs.
NYM 5-star plays: Michael Conforto (.304 ISO L7), Pete Alonso (.300 ISO vs RHP)
4-star plays: JD Davis (.455 ISO L7), Jeff McNeil (.267 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Mets are striking out at a 23% rate against RHP
CWS 5-star plays: Yoan Moncada (.407 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Jose Abreu (.228 ISO vs RHP), Jon Jay (3 for 3, double vs Syndergaard, value option)
GPP Note: CWS is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
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Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians
Justin Verlander vs Shane Bieber
This is going to be an exciting SP matchup. A couple of the Indians bats have very strong numbers against Verlander and he is giving up a lot of HRs this season. With that said, he still is elite and is capable of shutting the Indians down. Bieber has really stepped up as the ace of the Indians pitching staff with all of their injuries and this is a spot where they need him. The Astros normally do not strike out much but they have allowed a few big K games to SPs recently.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez (.533 ISO L7)
4-star plays: George Springer (.385 ISO L7), Jose Altuve (.348 ISO L7)
GPP Note: HOU is striking out at under a 19% rate against RHP
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez (.500 ISO L7, 11 for 27 2 HRs vs Verlander)
4-star plays: Carlos Santana (18 for 75, 8 HRs 5 2Bs vs Verlander), Francisco Lindor (10 for 29 HR vs Verlander)
GPP Note: CLE is striking out at just over a 22% rate against RHP
Minnesota Twins (-150) vs Miami Marlins
Jake Odorizzi vs Zac Gallen
I think both SPs are in play here as the game has a total set at just 8 runs. The Twins have the most HRs in the majors and have scored the 4th most runs but Gallen has been a pleasant surprise for a horrendous Marlins team. Minnesota will most likely be without Cruz (I don’t think they have plans to play him in the OF) and that softens the lineup slightly. Odorizzi is in an excellent spot, even after the Marlins scored 11 runs on Monday night. Miami’s offense is weak overall and just a couple of guys are swinging even a decent bat recently.
MIN 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz (.759 ISO L7, 7 HRs L7–Unfortunately there’s a good chance he isn’t in the lineup), Max Kepler (.500 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Miguel Sano (.444 ISO L7), Jorge Polanco (.367 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIN is striking out at a 21% rate against RHP
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas (.375 ISO L7)
GPP Note: MIA is striking out at a 26% rate against RHP
Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics
Adrian Houser vs Chris Bassitt
We will need to pay attention to the Brewers’ plans here as Jordan Lyles was just acquired and he was supposed to pitch for PIT Monday night. Lyles could certainly make this start but if it stays as Houser, we may or may not get a full start out of him. He threw 92 pitches in a game just over 2 weeks ago but has thrown just 63 pitches across 3 appearances since then. This may end up being a game that I just kind of avoid unless I want to pick up a one-off bat, most likely from MIL.
MIL 5-star plays: Keston Hiura (.389 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas (3 for 10, HR vs Bassitt), Christian Yelich (.405 ISO vs RHP)
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien (.292 ISO L7), Ramon Laureano (.238 ISO L7)
GPP Note: OAK is striking out at just under a 22% rate against RHP
Watching the weather is half the battle when it comes to MLB DFS. The DFS Army Weather Station has you covered, from games that have delay and postponement potential to games that could have significant winds that will play a roll in selecting a team to stack or a pitcher to use.
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers
Mike Leake vs Ariel Jurado
The Rangers have impressive numbers against Leake in their careers. I was really shocked to see some of those numbers and it puts TEX very much on my shortlist of must stack teams. Jurado is a pitcher that I think can be sneaky as he is a reverse splits guy and that neutralizes the most dangerous bats in the SEA lineup. I will definitely have exposure to him thanks to the high K rate of the Mariners against RHPs.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach (.333 ISO L7), Kyle Seager (.308 ISO L7)
GPP Note: SEA is striking out at a 25% rate against RHP
TEX 5-star plays: Rougned Odor (.429 ISO L7, 7 for 22 3HRs 2 2Bs vs Leake), Danny Santana (.429 ISO L7, 6 for 12 vs Leake)
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara (.304 ISO L7, 8 for 19 vs Leake), Willie Calhoun (.500 ISO L7)
GPP Note: TEX is striking out at over a 26% rate against RHP
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
Julio Urias vs Kyle Freeland
I love Urias as a pitcher but they just never stretch him out and I can’t see him going more than 3-4 innings in this one. The Dodgers bullpen has been very up and down all season so the Rockies bats are going to be in play. I definitely believe the Dodgers offense shows up a bit more hereafter putting up a dud against Jon Gray Monday night.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner (12 for 23 vs Freeland), AJ Pollock (6 for 17 vs Freeland)
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger (.311 ISO vs LHP), Will Smith
GPP Note: Dodgers are striking out at under a 23% rate against LHP
COL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado (4 for 6 2 2Bs, 3B vs Urias)
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon (4 for 6, 2B 3B vs Urias), Ian Desmond (.320 ISO vs LHP)
GPP Note: COL is striking out at over a 26% rate against LHP
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels
Drew VerHagen vs Griffin Canning
VerHagen has been smacked around hard so far in the majors and that gets my attention. The Angels have some dangerous bats and even the non-dangerous ones near the bottom have been performing. I LOVE Canning here as DET is striking out 27% of the time against RHPs this season.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Niko Goodrum (.261 ISO L7), John Hicks (.353 ISO L7)
GPP Note: DET is striking out at a 27% rate against RHP
LAA 5-star plays: Kole Calhoun (.440 ISO L7), Mike Trout (.346 ISO L7)
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani (.278 ISO L7), Matt Thaiss (.750 ISO L7)
GPP Note: Angels are striking out at a 19% rate against RHP
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
