Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting and are in good spots here on this slate.
- Mike Clevinger – Clevinger is one of my favorite pitchers throughout baseball, I just think he’s enjoyable to watch. From a fantasy perspective, he draws a great matchup with the Kansas City Royals tonight. The Royals really arent striking out all that much against right-handed pitching, just 20%. However, Clevinger has an elite strikeout rate this season at 39.4% which is absolutely crazy. Strikeouts are king when it comes to picking a pitcher in baseball, therefore Clevinger will be my king tonight in a game where the Royals have an implied run total of just 3.9.
- Martin Perez – I will say, Perez has not been great as of late, but this matchup can cure a lot of pitching woes. The White Sox are striking out at a 26.2% rate on the season and really just not an offense that scares me. The price feels a bit high on Perez, but this will keep ownership down. I like him more for GPP’s but I certainly wouldn’t force you off of him if you got there in cash games.
- Homer Bailey – This is the first slate where I get to do analysis on the great Homer Bailey. As many of you know I have played him a ton this season because people seem to think he’s a gas can, which he might be, but getting traded to Oakland makes his value very appealing. He gets a matchup against the Rangers who strikeout at a 25.1% rate this season. In Bailey’s first and only start IN Oakland he put up 21.3 Draftkings points. At this price tag if he can duplicate that again you will be feeling very good about your chances.
- Honorable mentions:
- Cal Quantrill, Gerrit Cole, Anthony DeSclafani
- These guys are all in play for me as well and draw pretty nice matchups considering the opposing lineups and ballparks. DeSclafani probably draws the worst matchup of the three but the Rockies are worse than average away from home and tend to strikeout in bunches. Quantrill gets a matchup with the Giants in a pitchers park, the Giants are playing well lately, but I just think they are riding a high and this offensive explosion will taper off sooner rather than later. Lastly, Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole, if you can get to him, do it.
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Full Count Article:
Tampa Bay Rays (-130) @ Toronto Blue Jays (+120)
Neither of these pitchers is all that great and I think we can put both offenses in play here. I do think Beeks has some upside in this league, but he just hasn’t proven it to be consistent yet. Tampa has an implied run total of 5.4 runs here which is a healthy total compared to the Jays’ 4.7. The Rays are the more consistent team and the Jays are more boom-or-bust.
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Nate Lowe
GPP Note: The Rays aren’t my favorite stack here, but they are a road team against an unproven pitcher. I don’t expect them to be highly owned, so it’s not a bad contrarian spot for GPPs.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Cavan Biggio
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: The Jays are a team that I seemingly never get right when I play them they score 1 run and when I pivot off of them they score 8. I do think this is a nice spot for them, although I do prefer the Rays of the two sides.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-172) @ Washington Nationals (+159)
Clayton Kershaw is the highest-priced pitcher on the early slate and for good reason, he has been pitching great as of late. He has at least 25 Draftkings points in each of his last three starts and has a strikeout rate of 24.7% this season. I think Kershaw is certainly playable in this spot. The Dodgers have an implied run total of 5.8 runs here against Joe Ross and a bad Nationals bullpen. They have one of the best offenses in the league and are in play pretty much every night and especially against a below-average pitcher on the road they are one of my favorite stacks of the day.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, AJ Pollock, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Having Pollock back only makes their lineup better and he is relatively cheap and makes the stack easier to do. I like the Dodgers here. This lineup has seen its price come down all the way around even outside of Pollock, with guys like Verdugo, Seager, and Joc’s price coming down. I love them here.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’m not stacking or targeting hitters against Clayton Kershaw here
New York Yankees (+125) @ Boston Red Sox (-135)
A matchup of the southpaws here in Boston. I will not be getting to either pitcher here as both offenses have insane firepower. The Red Sox have put up 29 runs in the past two days and Mookie Betts has seemed to return to his MVP form hitting three home runs last night. The Red Sox have an implied run total over 6 and the Yankees have an implied run total over 5, both of these teams are in play on this slate.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: This series has put up a lot of runs, mostly on the Red Sox side, but the Yankees will not go down quietly. They are the cheaper stack of the two if they roll out their regular lineup against lefties, but I’ll still side with the Sox on this one.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: It’s hard not to like a team with a 6.2 implied run total. The matchup with CC Sabathia at home is a nice one for them, they are right there with the Dodgers as my favorite early slate stack.
Detroit Tigers (+139) @ Seattle Mariners (-151)
Marco Gonzales’s price has sure come up, but he had a great game last time out going for 19.6 Draftkings points. The price moreso reflects the matchup than anything else here. The Tigers are the worst lineup in all of baseball in my mind and Gonzales should be able to put them away quickly here. You’re not getting a huge k rate with Gonzales, but he has a lot of safety in this matchup. The Mariners have some firepower against an unproven pitcher, I don’t hate them as a GPP stack.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: They are just so bad right now, no thank you
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Tim Beckham, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Not my favorite stack, but you could do worse, fire them up for GPPs if you please.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-126) @ Miami Marlins (+114)
Greinke didn’t pitch as well as I thought he would last night in this matchup and Alex Young is nowhere near Greinke talent-wise, so I’ll go elsewhere with pitching. Yamamoto has proven he can hang in this league but isn’t a polished pitcher yet. On a showdown slate, I think you can go with both of these guys considering the ballpark, but if playing some kind of all-day slate I’ll find somewhere else to go.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta
GPP Note: I don’t stack in Marlins Park and I’m not starting now, Yamamoto makes sense for showdown slates.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro
GPP Note: Make sure to check out our coaches notes/player picks for this showdown game
-> COACHES NOTES/PLAYER PICKS <-
Atlanta Braves (-118) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+109)
Max Fried is a pitcher that I think has a lot of talent and a bright future in this league this will be his first start since coming off the DL with a blister, so I don’t think he will be on a pitch count but keep an eye out for that news. He gets a matchup with an underperforming offense this season and I think is worth a look in GPPs at the very least. Zach Eflin has shown signs of consistency this year but has been consistently bad as of late, I think you can look at the Braves in GPPs.
ATL 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: The Braves have an implied run total of 5 here against Eflin and I always like stacking road teams more than home teams because they get guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats. They aren’t my favorite stack on the slate, but they will definitely make the pool for GPPs.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: I don’t really want to stack against Max Fried here, but this field is great for home runs especially for lefties so targeting the power bats in this lineup as one-offs isn’t a bad idea to fill out a lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+122) @ New York Mets (-132)
This game features two pitchers who really are pretty average and have been nothing special this season. Although, Matz is coming off of a nice start against the San Francisco Giants and Williams is coming off a nice start against the Cardinals. I think this will be a stay away spot for me. The one guy I would have interest in is Josh Bell, but he’s off to a cold second half start (home run derby curse?).
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Starlin Marte
GPP Note: Matz has been all over the place this season, but the Pirates aren’t a team I’m playing here today.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: As I said, more of a stay-away game for me, you can use some of these one-offs if you would please.
Chicago Cubs (+104) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-113)
The ole I-94 rivalry is off to a nice start as the Brewers take game one in a great game last night. Many of you know that I think Jon Lester is a fraud and I think he gets beat up pretty good here. I would assume Braun and Aguilar will be back in the lineup and let me tell you, Braun murders both lefties and the Cubs. Chase Anderson has scored at least 15 Draftkings points in three straight games and has really been able to limit damage as of late. The Cubs still have enough talent to make them playable for GPPs, however.
CHC 5-star plays: Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora (value)
GPP Note: The Cubs aren’t my favorite stack on this slate and I prefer the Brewers in this game, but they may get overlooked on this slate, so I don’t hate them for GPP.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: I love the Brewers tonight against Jon Lester and I think the name will draw people away from them. Braun, Yelich, and Hiura will be staples of my stack filled in with guys like Moose, Arcia, Aguilar, and Grandal.
Colorado Rockies (+116) @ Cincinnati Reds (-126)
I wrote-up DeSclafani in my pitcher’s section and he is coming off a great game against the Cardinals, I just don’t think I can pay for him at this price against the Rockies in a small ballpark. The Reds are interesting here with an implied run total of 5.7 runs against Chi-Chi Gonzalez. Gonzalez really hasn’t been terrible, but there are parts of this Reds offense that is smoking hot. The Rockies will be a GPP stack for me against DeSclafani, but I don’t see myself getting there if I’m being honest, there are better plays on the slate.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Not the worst GPP stack, but I like DeSclafani more than this lineup
CIN 5-star plays: Eugenio Suarez, Yasiel Puig, Scooter Gennett
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: I like the Reds here, they aren’t my favorite, but they’ll make my list of secondary stacks
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Minnesota Twins (-173) @ Chicago White Sox (+159)
I wrote Martin Perez up in my pitcher’s section as a pretty good play tonight despite the high price. The White Sox are not a team that scares me one bit and Perez has flashed some upside this season. As for Nova… no. The Twins are right up there as my favorite team on the slate. They have an implied run total of 6.4 runs here and Nova is giving up a 36% hard contact rate on the season. I love the Twins here.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario
4-star plays: Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Jason Castro/Mitch Garver
GPP Note: The Twins will be a tier one stack for me and most likely my top stack on the slate. They are expensive, but there are ways to save money at the bottom of this lineup.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have some Martin Perez shares here, no White Sox for me
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Houston Astros (-191) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+175)
Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher from a talent perspective on this slate if you can get to him do it, but I’ll likely take the savings with Clevinger. The hitting conditions look very nice here and I think I’ll get to some Astros here, Ponce De Leon isn’t exactly a world-beater and is coming off a rough start against the Pirates. The Astros will be up there with the Twins as a top stack for me.
HOU 5-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Having Carlos Correa back in this lineup makes it look very scary, I love the Astros here even though their implied run total is just 4.7 I’m hoping this draws ownership down.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Goldschmidt is raking right now, but Cole is an elite play as always.
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Cleveland Indians (-210) @ Kansas City Royals (+192)
Mike Clevinger is my favorite pitcher on the slate when we take price into consideration, the Royals just don’t scare me here and the k rate is elite for Clevinger. I like the Indians as a stack as well in a matchup against Sparkman. The just had this matchup in Sparkman’s last appearance and they tagged him for five runs in five innings. This bullpen is not good, so if the Indians can get to him early, watch out.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado, Carlos Santana
4-star plays: Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: The Indians will be on the border of a tier-one/two stack for me. I like them a lot here, but their not in the same category as the Twins and the Astros.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Mike Clevinger is my favorite pitcher on the slate, just a hedge stack here
Texas Rangers (+154) @ Oakland Athletics (-167)
I love Homer Bailey being traded to Oakland. I have been overweight on him all year and it’s going to be unhealthy the amount I play him while he’s pitching at home in this ballpark. The Rangers strike out a lot and this is a great pitchers park, I will have a good amount of Bailey here. I don’t stack in this ballpark and I actually think Adrian Sampson makes sense as a punt SP2 option. Really just staying away from bats here as weird as it sounds.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Just hedge stacks against Bailey for me
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis
GPP Note: I like Sampson as an SP2 option, but that said, there are some power bats that can take advantage of this matchup.
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels
What’s better than a matchup between Aaron Brooks and Trevor Cahill??? Both of these offenses are in play here and I actually think the Orioles get overlooked here. I expect the Angels to be pretty chalky because they have been the past two nights against this O’s pitching staff. But yes, these are both teams that I will have exposure to.
BAL 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Dwight Smith Jr, Chance Sisco
GPP Note: Trevor Cahill is well past his prime with an ERA over six here, the Orioles are a tier two stack for me and are pretty cheap if you want to make some expensive pitching work
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Kole Calhoun
4-star plays: Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujols
GPP Note: I can see the Angels being the chalkiest team on the slate, they will be in my tier one of stacks but I still like the Twins more.
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San Francisco Giants (+115) @ San Diego Padres (-125)
I wrote up Cal Quantrill in my pitcher’s section and think he is a viable punt SP2 option on this slate if you want to get to bats. I don’t hate a very low owned Padres stack, but otherwise, this game will be mostly a stay away spot for me. There are other spots like on this large slate.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I’ll have some Quantrill interest and I’m not taking Giants hitters in this ballpark
SDP 5-star plays: Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Not a terrible spot to stack up the Padres, as they will be extremely low owned and have some upside against Anderson.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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