Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting in a good or bad sense.
- Jacob deGrom – deGrom gets a matchup with the San Francisco Giants on tonight’s slate and you really can’t ask for a better matchup from a pitching perspective. The Giants have one of the weaker lineups in baseball and strikeout at a 22.9% rate on the season. This combined with deGrom’s 30.6% strikeout rate puts him right at the top of my board. The ballpark is also one of the best pitching parks in baseball, I will likely take the discount from Verlander and Ryu and just go to deGrom who is in a great spot here tonight.
- David Price – Price draws an elite matchup with the Baltimore Orioles here tonight. In one start against the Orioles this season, Price scored 32 Draftkings points in seven innings pitched. The O’s strikeout at a 24% rate on the season to go along with Price’s 28.1% rate. Price is also in very good form, he has gone for at least 18.5 Draftkings points in four straight games and I don’t expect that to change here.
- Tyler Beede – If you’re looking for a punt SP2 option I think Beede and Chacin are your best options, but I will be going with Beede if I can find the salary. Beede has pitched well over his past two starts against the Padres and the Brewers and now he gets a much weaker Met’s lineup in a huge pitchers park. He has scored at least 22.2 in each of those games and is now rocking a respectable 21.4% strikeout rate on the season. The Mets strikeout at a 22.7% rate and really are pretty weak if you can get passed Peter Alonso, I like Beede here as a salary saver option.
Full Count Breakdown:
San Diego Padres (+136) @ Chicago Cubs (-147)
This is the stand-alone early game, as Friday home games are for the Cubbies. We will have to keep an eye on the weather here and make sure to stay tuned to the weather slack channel for updates on the wind. At first look, it looks like the wind will be blowing out to dead center at about 12 mph which will be a major bump to hitters. We will have Coaching Notes/Player Picks on this game so make sure to check those out as the salary is far different from the main slate, but if I were to lean one way it would be to stack up the Padres. (As most of you know, I think Jon Lester is a fraud!)
Strategy for this slate can be found here, as most of you know!
-> COACHING NOTES/PLAYER PICKS<-
Boston Red Sox (-214) @ Baltimore Orioles (+196)
I touched on David Price’s matchup above when I broke down pitching briefly, but he is one of the more intriguing pitchers on the slate given this matchup. I was a John Means believer earlier in the season, and still am, but this Red Sox offense is simply too good. By the way, Mookie Betts smokes the ball in Camden Yards with 14 HRs, 1.008 OPS, .601 SLG, and a .303 batting average in his career.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Christian Vazquez (DK), Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: I was kind of expecting their run total to be higher than 5.8 here, but nonetheless they are one of my favorite stacks on the slate if you can find the money. The Red Sox seemingly always take advantage of their visits to Baltimore.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I have much more interest in using David Price against this offense
Colorado Rockies (+200) @ New York Yankees (-219)
Seeing the Yankees as a -219 favorite with JA Happ on the mound against a decent offensive team in a small ballpark is something I wasn’t expecting to see. But, this is less of a testament to Happ and more of one to this Yankees offense in this spot. The Yankees have an implied run total of nearly 7 here and Kyle Freeland has been #BAD this season. He has given up at least 5 earned runs in 3 straight games and now has to pitch in one of the smallest parks in baseball to a home run hitting team. Give me the Yankees here.
COL 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: I was expecting the Rockies implied run total to be higher here, it’s not like Happ has been an ace this season. I don’t mind using Story and Arenado here, Arenado feels particularly cheap and is a good bet to hit a homer here.
NYY 5-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: I’ll have interest in pretty much anyone that cracks the lineup here, they will be chalky, but this is a top stack on this slate.
Philadelphia Phillies (-100) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-108)
I normally don’t love stacking in Pittsburgh because of the size of the park, but neither of these pitchers is really that great. This may be one of those spots where I just chase one-offs because I don’t have much interest in either stack if I’m completely honest.
PHI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto (DK), Scott Kingery
GPP Note: I just one the power one-offs here, not really a team I want to stack in this ballpark.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starlin Marte
GPP Note: Similar story here, just the power one-offs if I happen to fall on them
Kansas City Royals (+255) @ Cleveland Indians (-281)
Shane Bieber just missed the cut on my pitcher’s list, but he is a great option here against the Royals. He has an elite 31.6% strikeout rate on the season and the Royals are not a team that I’m afraid of especially with Adalberto Mondesi out of the lineup. The Indians are certainly stackable here against Mike Montgomery who gets his first start as a Royal, coming over from the Cubs in the Martin Maldonado deal.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Shane Bieber as a pitcher here, no interest in the Royals from an offensive perspective.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: The Indians have an implied run total of 6.1 runs here and are really starting to get hot. Jose Ramirez started the season very slowly but seems to be coming around and Jordan Luplow absolutely destroys lefties, so I would make sure to get them into your stacks.
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Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
It looks like Brendan McKay will get the start for the Rays here and is a guy I will definitely have interest in against a weak White Sox offense. He likely won’t get more than 90 pitches because it seems as if the Rays will be careful with his workload, as he is a pitcher and a position player, but I don’t hate it for GPP’s. Reynaldo Lopez gave up 8 earned runs in this matchup earlier this season but is coming off of a nice start against the Oakland A’s. With that said, I will leave a Rays stack for GPPs only.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, James McCann (DK)
GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me against a talented young pitcher
TBR 5-star plays: Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Nate Lowe, Kevin Kiermaier
GPP Note: I don’t hate a stack for GPP’s, but they are a secondary stack for me on this slate just because of the other options tonight.
St. Louis Cardinals (-101) @ Cincinnati Reds (-107)
Tyler Mahle is a guy that I want to attack with left-handed bats, but the Cardinals really don’t have any great lefty options in their lineup. The Cardinals offense is just underachieving up to this point in the season, so although I won’t have any Mahle interest, I’ll stay away from a Cardinals stack here. Adam Wainwright has finally figured it out this season and is pitching well as of late, so I will be staying away from a full Reds stack as well. I don’t think I want to go to Wainwright either because of the small ballpark, anything can happen.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Tommy Edman, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me, if we can catch the start of a Paul DeJong hot streak I’m all over it. He homered in last night’s game and has a lot of upside.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Not a lot of interest here from me.
Toronto Blue Jays (-147) @ Detroit Tigers (+136)
Marcus Stroman gets a very nice matchup with a weak Tigers offense here. I want to have interest in Stroman here, but he just feels overpriced and there are better options on this big slate. It looks as if Jordan Zimmerman will get the start for the Tigers and he is a certified gas can so we can look toward the Blue Jays in tournaments.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel, Cavan Biggio, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak
GPP Note: If you’re looking to pay up at pitching, the Jays make a perfect stack. They are relatively cheap, on the road which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats, and gets a matchup with Jordan Zimmerman who has a 7.01 era on the season.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I like Stroman here but likely won’t get to him because of his price, so no Tigers bats for me.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
This game features a couple of very talented pitchers against two very good offenses in hot weather in Atlanta. Due to the strength of both of these offenses, I don’t think I can go to either pitcher in cash games, but Patrick Corbin always has some GPP appeal.
WAS 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Soroka is a very talented young pitcher that I have respect for. I won’t be fully stacking the Nats, but the ballpark and hitting conditions make mini-stacks and one-offs viable.
ATL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Josh Donaldson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Patrick Corbin, but power one-offs for GPPs are perfectly fine.
Oakland Athletics (+118) @ Minnesota Twins (-128)
Both of these pitchers are pretty average and feel a bit too priced up considering some of the other options on this slate so I likely won’t get to either of them. Both teams have an implied run total over 5 which is not uncommon this season, but I will always have interest in stacking the Twins with the production they have been putting up this season. The A’s are right there with the Jays as a nice cheap stack in order to make pitching work.
OAK 5-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: I would rather stack the Jays at similar prices due to the pitching matchup, but the A’s will make my list of secondary stacks at the very least.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Jason Castro, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: I like the Twins as a stack here, they have a perfect amount of speed and power and are capable of putting up a 10 spot on anyone.
Texas Rangers (+198) @ Houston Astros (-216)
This game features two great pitchers this season in Justin Verlander and Mike Minor who is reportedly being shopped to a contender. Verlander is one of the best pitchers in the league which is why the Astros are such high favorites, but I won’t be running out to play the Astros bats against Mike Minor either. Verlander is one of the better pitching options on the slate if you can find the money for him.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I won’t be stacking against Justin Verlander, however even though I didn’t label anyone as a 5 or 4-star play, Verlander is near the league lead in HRs given up so targeting a one-off like Gallo or Pence isn’t the worst idea I’ve ever heard.
HOU 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: George Springer, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: I respect Mike Minor’s stuff so I won’t be stacking against him, but Bregman and Springer are always in play for GPPs at the very least.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-123) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+113)
I will likely get to some Jhoulys Chacin here just because of the way I play and paying down at SP2 is one of my favorite things to do in a year where bats are ruling. Chacin is under $6k on Draftkings and makes for a nice punt SP2 option. The Brewers will be up there as one of my favorite stacks on the slate, particularly the lefties against Taylor Clarke who has struggled against them on the season.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Keston Hiura, Eric Thames
GPP Note: I love the lefties here and Keston Hiura is mashing at the moment, but his price has caught up to him.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: I don’t mind a mini-stack here, but you heard me, I’ll have some Chacin as an SP2 option.
Miami Marlins (+244) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-269)
Hyun-Jin Ryu has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and gets a great matchup against the Marlins here. Ryu is averaging 10 more Draftkings points per game at home this season and is right there with Verlander as one of the top raw pitching options on the slate. Zac Gallen went through a stretch where we were looking at him in DFS, but I will wait for a better matchup before targeting him again.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: No thank you.
LAD 5-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: I like the Dodgers here and they normally go under-owned when they’re at home. They aren’t a top stack for me but are on my list of secondary stacks if you can find the money for GPPs.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners
Jaime Barria has pitched well over his last three outings going for at least 18.3 Draftkings points in each of those starts. The Mariners do not have a great offense making Barria a very solid SP2 option for me on this slate. Mike Leake will get the start for the Mariners and I will have interest in an Angels stack for GPPs if, and only if, Mike Trout makes the lineup.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout (if in the lineup), Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Watch and make sure Mike Trout is in the lineup before you stack them, but Mike Leake can certainly be had. I don’t love stacking in this ballpark, but it’s in play for GPPs.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Mariners, I will have some Jaime Barria against them here.
New York Mets (-181) @ San Francisco Giants (+166)
I wrote up both of these pitchers as guys that I will likely have some interest in on this slate. With that said, I likely won’t get to either offense here, they are both pretty mediocre. deGrom is one of my favorite options on the slate and I don’t even hate the idea of pairing him with Tyler Beede on the other side of this game.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, Tyler Beede will make my SP2 player pool
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: Jacob deGrom is my SP1 on this slate
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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