Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
My Take on a Consistent Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start a slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target. But it also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the Nilly’s MLB Carnage Report, this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are three pitchers that I find particularly interesting in a good or bad sense.
- Jose Berrios – Berrios gets a nice matchup with a White Sox team that has an implied run total of just 3.9 runs here. Berrios is well known for his home/road splits and is on the wrong side of those tonight, but I think we are alright here. Berrios has two starts against the White Sox this season in which he is averaging 16.8 Draftkings points per game. The White Sox strikeout at a 25.7% rate on the season to go with Berrios’ 21.5% k rate.
- Adam Plutko – Pitching is not great on this slate so punting with your SP2 may not be the worst of options. Plutko gets a nice matchup with a Royals team that has an implied run total of 4.7 runs. The Royals have a pretty average strikeout percentage right at 20% on the season. Plutko has faced them twice this season and is averaging 15.9 Draftkings points per game and this is more than serviceable at his price tag.
- Wade LeBlanc – LeBlanc is my punt SP2 option of the day with a matchup against a horrid Tigers offense. LeBlanc has just a 17.6% strikeout rate on the season, but the Tigers k rate of 28.6% more than makes up for that. We don’t have a run total on this game yet, but it’s hard to believe the Tigers will come in with much more than four given the park downgrade and weak lineup.
- Honorable Mention: Ariel Jurado – You know pitching is bad when Jurado is an honorable mention. But, I just wanted to write him up as a cheap SP2 option on Draftkings given the massive park upgrade for him. It’s a price play, but it could make the rest of your lineup work.
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Full Count Article:
San Diego Padres (+190) @ New York Mets (-208)
The Padres get a tough matchup here with Jacob deGrom, so we can pretty safely avoid them outside of large field GPPs. deGrom is an elite option here if playing the early slate or a showdown, he’s simply one of the best pitchers in the league and gets a strikeout happy team. The Mets get a matchup with Eric Lauer who really hasn’t been awful this season. I like a mini-stack for the Mets more than a full one.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: Nothing outside of one-offs against deGrom for me here.
NYM 5-star plays: Peter Alonso
4-star plays: Wilson Ramos (DK), JD Davis
GPP Note: I like a mini-stack of the power righties here, Pete Alonso is a phenomenal play he is destroying lefties with a .660 slugging percentage on the season.
St. Louis Cardinals (+109) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-118)
This game features two pretty average pitchers, but they do see a nice ballpark in Pittsburgh. If picking which pitcher I want from this game it will be Joe Musgrove. Mikolas just doesn’t have any upside, and Musgrove just went for 30 Draftkings points against the Phillies. Although I don’t want to pitch Mikolas, I really don’t want to stack against him in this park either, he’s good at getting out of trouble.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neil
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me here against a pitcher who is in good form in a big ballpark.
PIT 5-star plays: Josh Bell
4-star plays: Starlin Marte, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: These two early games are kind of blah from an offensive standpoint, but the Pirates are probably my favorite stack on the early slate just because of the home run potential with guys like Bell and Marte with the speed and consistency of Reynolds, Marte, and Frazier.
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Colorado Rockies (+260)@ Washington Nationals (-287)
Max Scherzer is the best pitcher on the day and it’s really not close here. The problem is that this game is in it’s own time slot. The Rockies strikeout at a 24.4% rate on the season to go along with Scherzer’s elite strikeout rate of 35.2%. Don’t overthink it if this game is on the slate you’re playing, play Scherzer. As for the Nats bats, they’re in a pretty good spot as well against Hoffman with a 5.8 implied run total.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Just power one-offs if you really feel the need to go there
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Matt Adams, Victor Robles, Kurt Suzuki (DK)
GPP Note: The Nats are one of the better stacks of the non-main slate teams. I like wrapping it with guys like Suzuki and Robles to get a little contrarian.
New York Yankees (-115) @ Boston Red Sox (+106)
The main slate starts with the best rivalry in baseball. Both teams have an implied run total of over 5 runs here, but I think the Yankees are in the better spot against Rick Porcello. Tanaka is a very solid MLB pitcher and we can be picky here and side with the away team who is guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats. In two starts against the Yankees this season, Rick Porcello is averaging -5 Draftkings points per game… yeah that’s a NEGATIVE FIVE.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu
4-star plays: Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Edwin Encarnacion
GPP Note: The Yankees will be one of the top stacks on the board for me given the great matchup against Porcello and his struggles against them this season. I don’t love the bottom of the order with Gardner and Higashioka, but outside of those two, everybody is in play here.
BOS 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Christian Vazquez (DK), Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Tanaka has one start against the Red Sox this season and he didn’t even make it out of the first inning before giving up 6 earned runs. I don’t suspect he’ll be that bad here, but the Red Sox have one of the best offenses in the league in a great ballpark for hitting.
Minnesota Twins (-144) @ Chicago White Sox (+133)
I wrote up Jose Berrios in my pitcher’s section and think he is one of the top options on the slate. Giolito is a serviceable option as well but I just respect the Twins offense too much to want to really pull the trigger on him. This will likely be pitchers or nothing game for me due to the fact that both pitchers have great talent and can easily shut down any lineup on any given day.
MIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: Just one-offs here for me, Giolito has proven he belongs at the big league level this season.
CHW 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Berrios is my favorite pitcher on the slate and this lineup is incredibly weak, no thanks.
Cleveland Indians (-136) @ Kansas City Royals (+126)
I feel like these two teams have been playing for a week and a half now. This time it is Plutko vs. Mike Montgomery. I will have a decent amount of interest in Adam Plutko here given the pitching options on this slate. And I will have a ton of interest in the Indians bats here. If they can get to Montgomery early like they did last time out, this will be a massive spot for this offense.
CLE 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Jordan Luplow, Roberto Perez (DK)
GPP Note: The Indians are up there with the Yankees as my favorite stacks of the slate. The Royals bullpen is just egregious and Montgomery really isn’t a whole lot better.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: I’ll likely have a good amount of Plutko here, but I don’t mind taking a shot on a power guy like one of the three four-star plays.
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Texas Rangers (+160) @ Oakland Athletics (-173)
I wrote-up Jurado as a pitching option as a cheap SP2 if you need to squeeze some bats in. I never really mind targeting pitchers in this ballpark because it’s a park that makes Mike Fiers look like a better than average pitcher, which he is not. There is a ton of foul ground here which cuts down on strikeouts but also cuts down on runs. Don’t go too crazy with Jurado, but I think he’s playable. As you can tell I don’t love playing offenses in this park, but if you play a decent amount of Jurado, you better get yourself some Athletics hedge stacks to be safe.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Hunter Pence, Danny Santana, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: As I said, I don’t really target offenses in this ballpark, but Brett Anderson isn’t exactly good. You can make a case for stacking up this team for large field GPPs.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: I will for sure have some Jurado shares on Draftkings meaning I will have some A’s stacks as a hedge. Khris Davis has to break out at some point… right?
Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels
I can see Jose Saurez drawing a good amount of ownership here just because he gets a matchup with the Orioles, but I don’t see him being worth this price tag. Yes, the Orioles are bad, but they are still capable of getting to MLB pitching. It’s hard not to like the Angels here against an Orioles pitching staff that is among the worst in the league.
BAL 5-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Renato Nunez, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Just because I won’t be using Jose Suarez here doesn’t mean that I’ll be stacking this team fully. I think they work best as a mini-stack with guys like Villar and Mancini leading the way.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton
4-star plays: Kole Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons
GPP Note: The Angels are third on my stacks list behind the Yankees and Indians on tonight’s slate. It’s just hard not to like a matchup with such a bad pitching staff. The O’s have the worst bullpen in the league, let’s hope they can get to it quick here.
Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners
I wrote-up Wade LeBlanc as a pitcher that I find pretty interesting here. I will likely get a bunch of him due to the great matchup with a bad lineup in the Tigers. Seattle gets a pretty good matchup against a guy with a 15.00 era this season across multiple games. This will likely end up as a bullpen game for them making this an intriguing spot for the Mariners.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I love Wade LeBlanc here and think the Tigers are the worst offense in baseball, so no.
SEA 5-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Domingo Santana
4-star plays: Mallex Smith, JP Crawford, Omar Narvaez (DK), Tim Beckham
GPP Note: I like the Mariners a lot for GPPs, they have a nice balance of power and speed and in this matchup hopefully can take full advantage.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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