Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! To kick things off, if you aren’t familiar with how I do things, you can get up to speed here: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets. If you have any questions, reach out to me in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
Here’s the initial carnage report for the day. You can keep an eye on it right here to get the most up-to-date information as the day goes on, and the final version for the main slate should be ready by around 4:30pm central time.
My top pitchers today
Main slate
Lucas Giolito – My top arm across the board tomorrow is Giolito. My Royals have struggled a lot with dominant pitching this year, and that’s exactly what we get here. He struck out 10 the last time they met, and while I can’t say I could guarantee the same results, I do expect him to have a very solid outing here. His 3.80 carnage rating and 549 KSCORE (best on the slate) sweeten the deal. Solid option in all formats with a solid floor and elite upside.
Blake Snell – This one is a little riskier, as he is facing the Yankees, but Snell does offer elite upside and I don’t think many people will want to roll him out against this team. Save him for GPP, but don’t be afraid to go here because he could potentially be the highest scoring pitcher when it’s all said and done.
James Paxton – Like Snell, I don’t see many people wanting to go with Paxton against the Rays here, but as we saw last week, he offers a high ceiling against them. I’d lean GPP here as well, but don’t overlook him and his 10+ strikeout potential against this team.
Max Fried – Between the Brewers cooling off and Fried having a solid game against them back in May, I like his chances here for another good outing, and like Snell/Paxton, I don’t see people wanting to go here. Like those two, save him for GPP.
Luis Castillo – This is a tough matchup, as can be seen by his 6.35 carnage rating, but that 530 KSCORE and low x/wOBA scores tell me he’s worth taking some shots with in GPP. As is the trend here, I don’t see a lot of people going here, so don’t be afraid to grab a few shares of him and his high ceiling for GPP purposes.
Joe Musgrove – With the best carnage rating on the board (3.69), Musgrove looks to be a decent lower-budget option today, but he’s definitely a bit of a gamble since he can be really on or really off. His last outing against the Cardinals didn’t go overly well, but he also walked 5 that game, which is by far the most he’s allowed all season (I don’t see that happening again here). Right now I’m leaning GPP here as an SP2 on DraftKings, but keep an eye on the coach’s notes page for any updates regarding him.
Offenses to target
We have several offenses in matchups with pitchers over a 6 carnage rating, including the Cubs, Indians, Rays, Dodgers, and Red Sox. Two of them are going up against pitchers I noted above, which means if you take one side of those matchups, it’s worth considering the other side to hedge them. We’ll get to the specifics with each game, so let’s get to them now!
Early slate
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
The Giants and Rockies have a double-header today, and it starts here with Pomeranz and Marquez. First of all, there looks to be some potential weather concerns here, so be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather for any important updates. Second, this game has a pretty low total for a Coors game, and we know both pitchers have been fairly sharp. My hope here is that this game is a bit of a dud for the offenses and plays to the under, which might help to keep ownership on the main slate a little lower than it could be otherwise (mainly for the Giants as they have a pretty good matchup tonight).
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Sandoval, Belt, Crawford
GPP note – This is a tough matchup and I don’t see Marquez allowing much here, so I would look at BvP for indicators of those that might get a piece (mainly the three noted above)
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Iannetta, Blackmon, Story
GPP note – Iannetta has a homer off of Pomeranz, so definitely give him a look. Otherwise, look at the righties here mostly, but don’t be surprised if they don’t go bonkers here
Main slate
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
We get our first ace of the slate here with Kershaw, though it’s hard to want to pay up for him considering his lower ceiling this season and the matchup he’ll have. You can always consider him in GPP, but honestly, I’d rather go somewhere else for a higher ceiling. The Dodgers’ offense is in a decent spot here, and you can always load up on the lefties here as they are always a threat for a home run or two. Muncy is 3 for 5 with 2 homers against Eflin, so be sure to give him a look.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Bellinger
Dodgers 4 star plays – Muncy (BvP), Pederson, Verdugo, Seager, Turner
GPP note – The usual lefties are in play here, especially Muncy with his BvP. Full stacks are in play here
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – Tough matchup here against Kershaw, but they’ll be low owned, so they make a contrarian option if you want to go here
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
We have an interesting one up next; two aces (with recent struggles) going up against two dangerous offenses at a ballpark that has been friendly to the long ball. I don’t think we need to go to this one in cash, but you can make an argument to all four sides of this one in GPP (both pitchers and both offenses). Feel free to get creative here; hedge both sides, game stack, stack an offense + their pitcher, etc. There’s bound to be some fantasy goodness to be had here.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Pham, Garcia, d’Arnaud
GPP note – Tough matchup, but they started the second half hot and might be a low-owned stack going up against Paxton. Good contrarian target
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Sanchez (BvP), LeMahieu, Judge, and all the other power righties
GPP note – Even if you don’t stack here, consider Sanchez. He’s 5 for 15 with 4 (yes, 4) home runs and makes an excellent one-off
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
We get one of the higher totals on the day here (opened at 10.5), and really, both offenses make good targets here. The Red Sox get the highest carnage rating on the board, and we know that Porcello can implode like nobody else. The Red Sox might be chalky, so if you stack them, consider some other lower-owned options to help to differentiate from the field (i.e. game stack with the Blue Jays or add in some lower-owned options like TBR/SFG/PHI etc)
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Smoak (BvP), Galvis, Sogard, Gurriel, Biggio, Guerrero
GPP note – If you go here, go all out with big stacks, as Porcello tends to implode when he has a bad game
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Vazquez
GPP note – They might be chalky, but they’re in a great spot here. Don’t be afraid to eat some chalk
Protip: always be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather and our MLB Weather Station Tab throughout the day!
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
We get a divisional game with a 10 (at opening) implied total, which isn’t too far behind our previous game. What does that mean? It means you can look here for some lower-owned fantasy production. I would lean towards the Indians here as the stronger target, as they have the better carnage rating (6.60), but the Tigers won’t see much ownership if that tickles your fancy.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Reyes, Stewart, Candelario, Goodrum
GPP note – Lefties and switch-hitters are the better targets here, and they won’t see a whole lot of ownership
Indians 5 star plays – Lindor
Indians 4 star plays – Santana (BvP), Ramirez, Mercado
GPP note – Smash spot for the Indians, especially the righties. Full stacks are squarely in play here
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
We get a couple of other pitching options here with Castillo and Hendricks. I like Castillo for GPP (as I mentioned above), but while I’m not high on Hendricks, some other coaches are, so be sure to give him a look as well. I will say he’s a good game manager, so even if he doesn’t put up a huge score, he may dampen the Reds’ ceiling a lot here. Castillo may do the same against the Cubs, so looking at one-offs may be the way to go for the bats here.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto (BvP), Senzel, Dietrich
GPP note – If you aren’t stacking, consider Votto as a one-off for his BvP (10 for 24 with 3 homers). Dietrich makes a decent one-off target too, as he likes to have the random big game
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Rizzo, Schwarber (BvP), Bryant, Baez, Heyward
GPP note – Schwarber (3 for 11 with 2 homers) makes an interesting one-off target if you aren’t using full stacks
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
This game may have only opened with a 10 implied total, but this game definitely has the potential to go well above that. I say potential, as the Brewers have been pretty quiet, but they may be a bit motivated here since the Braves like to put up some runs. That makes this one a decent game stack option if you’re looking for a way to get different on this slate.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna, Freeman
Braves 4 star plays – Donaldson, Albies, Swanson
GPP note – Acuna is heating up again, so be sure to give him a hard look even if you aren’t stacking here. If you are, look at him, Donaldson, Freeman, and the other lefties
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Braun, Grandal, Aguilar
GPP note – Yelich and the righties are the target here, and you’ll definitely want to be on this team when they erupt again. They offer an elite ceiling at lower ownership than they might normally have
The starting lineups page is a useful tool to get a quick view of all of the teams, and I especially like the home run predictor to use for Monkey Knife Fight props!
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals
Another game with some potential rain, be sure to keep an eye on #dfs-weather to see what Mark has to say about it. Aside from that, this one has a pretty low total (opened at 8.5), with two pitchers who are capable of holding down an offense for a while, so both of them are in play as an SP2 on DraftKings (I’d prefer to pay up for an elite ceiling on FanDuel). That does mean both offenses risk putting up a dud, but I do think it’s worth stacking some Pirates since they’ve shown a lot of signs of life lately.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell, Frazier (BvP), Reynolds, Moran
GPP note – Give the lefties a look here for any stacks you may run
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Fowler, Carpenter, Martinez, Goldschmidt
GPP note – This looks like a game where Musgrove could hold them down, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take some shares of him and hedge with a few stacks with the lefties and power righties (noted above)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Next up: my favorite pitcher of the day going up against my Royals (some fan I am, huh?). Like I mentioned earlier, Giolito is my guy today and I don’t think KC will have much of an answer to him. Junis is capable of a decent game, but I think the White Sox know him well enough that they can keep his ceiling in check (I don’t see him having a ton of strikeouts here).
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Moncada (BvP),
GPP note – I don’t love full stacks here, but whatever you do, give Moncada a hard look (7 for 14 with 2 homers)
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Soler, Merrifield, Mondesi, Cuthbert, Gordon
GPP note – I see Giolito dominating this game, so I don’t recommend full stacks. Rather, consider a one-off from the home run hitters or guys that can get on and steal a base (noted above)
Playing some cash games today? If you haven’t already, be sure to check out these 7 Tips for MLB Cash Games!
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
The second game of this double-header will feature Rodriguez and Gonzalez, two pitchers who are in a spot to get blown sky high. Coors is always a bit chalky, but really give the Giants a look here, as a lot of them are showing up on the classic batter sheet. Otherwise, all of the usual guys are in play here for the Rockies.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt, Vogt, Sandoval, Yastrzemski
GPP note – Pretty much everybody is in play here against Gonzalez, so feel free to stack away here to go with the lower-owned side of Coors (you can also game stack)
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Arenado, Story, Murphy, Dahl, Wolters…everybody!
GPP note – It’s a Coors game, so they’ll be chalky. You can eat some chalk here and still be different, as there are plenty of other good places to attack today
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
And finally, our hammer game features two dangerous offenses, a Houston bullpen, and a decent middle-of-the-road pitcher (Canning). I don’t see Canning really offering a high ceiling here, so I’m down for ignoring the arms in this one, but definitely give both offenses a look as they are capable of putting up 10+ runs.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Gurriel, Alvarez
GPP note – The usual righties are in play here, but I really like the lefties against Canning
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Fletcher, Ohtani, Upton, Smith
GPP note – Valdez looks to be the PLR here, and he’s really struggled as of late, so be sure to target him with some of your stacks tonight. I really like Smith for a lower-budget catcher
Alright guys & gals, that’s going to wrap this one up. Again, be sure to keep an eye on the coach’s notes page to see where everybody is leaning today, and I hope you all enjoy your week. I’ll see you all in Slack!
