Donuts to Dollars

The GPP/MME playbook is more or less a foundation to build upon for your Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) tournament strategy and mass-multi entry (MME) adventures. The following approach is how I am going to MME the main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Hit me up on Twitter  @DFSnDONUTS and you can also find me on YouTube | Twitch  | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching.

MLB DFS Pitching Pool Strategy for MME (5% minimum exposure set on each)

Max Scherzer has a 32.4% strikeout rate in 188 plate appearances versus the Phillies. They just have a 0.175 AVG and 0.233 wOBA (and just a 0.242 xwOBA for you bigger nerds). His FIP sits at 2.79 and his upside is unrivaled by anybody on the slate.

Zack Greinke is a mixed bag against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies as a team are batting 0.238 with a 0.296 wOBA and a 23.7% strikeout rate over 363 plate appearances. However, they do have 14 home runs against and 24 more extra-base hits. While I think Greinke gets the better of them I might hedge a bit with some Tier 2 stacks of the Rockies. The temperature is also supposed to be over 100 degrees!!! Hedge this play.

Rich Hill has scored 33.00 or more FanDuel points in six straight starts and has twice scored 58.00 while scoring 43.00 and 40.00 in two of the others. He has a high floor and high ceiling matchup against the weak and feeble San Francisco Giants. Hill is likely one of the safest options on the entire slate.

Lucas Giolito continues to pitch well no matter who he’s facing. He has scored 32.90, 30.75, 20.75, 43.65, 33.00, 35.50, 40.25, and 22.70 DraftKings points in his last 8 starts. That’s absolutely INSANE. He has a win in 8 straight starts and a quality start in 7 of those wins (the only one he didn’t get it in was rain-shortened and he was yanked after 78 pitches). As a matter of fact, he’s thrown over 100 pitches in the other 7 wins. The guy is an absolute machine and is polar opposite right now from what he was in 2018. Lock and load even at his high price point. It’s cold and the wind is blowing in. Giolito could explode again at low ownership due to other options on the slate looking nice with cheaper prices.

Adam Plutko (DRAFTKINGS ONLY) has three good starts and one bad one in 2019. He averages just a hair under 15.00 DraftKings points per game and has a quality start and win in 3 starts while being shelled in the other against the Tampa Bay Rays. Plutko doesn’t have tremendous strikeout upside but he has great control of his pitches and has just 3 walks in 23.1 IP this season. I don’t need a ton of upside at his super low price point. He’ll be low owned against the Texas Rangers, too. I really like this play and love his price.

Eduardo Rodriguez has the unfortunate matchup against the dangerous Minnesota Twins, however, he’s been great this season. E-Rod has 13.35 or more DK points in 7 out of his last 8 starts while reaching 21.55 or more in 5 of those 7 games. The Twins represent a dangerous matchup but E-Rod has the upside at his current price point to return significant value at a very low ownership rate. Nobody wants to target the Twins if they don’t have to and that means he’ll be low-owned because of the other pitching options available.

Single Entry GPP Pitchers

Rich Hill has a superior floor and ceiling combination that at his price point cannot be matched by anybody else on the slate. He has upside on both Fanduel and DraftKings due to his strikeout potential and win potential (QS on FD, too). He is a massive -236 favorite and the Giants have just a 3.1 implied run total.

Tier 1 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams). Daily fantasy sports are not just about being contrarian. A key strategy is to also have contrarian exposure to your plays.

Washington Nationals 40-60%

The opposing pitcher, Nick Pivetta has been rocked by the Nats through his career. In 94 plate appearances against him, the Nats have a 0.497 wOBA and 0.402 AVG with just a 17.0% strikeout rate. His FIP is sitting at 8.54 and the launch angle is 17.1 in those batted ball events. There is literally nothing pointing towards downside unless the weather doesn’t agree.

Los Angeles Angels 50-75%

They look so much more potent with Justin Upton in the middle of the lineup and Aaron Sanchez, the right-handed pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, has been destroyed by these Angels in 61 plate appearances. They have a massive 0.441 wOBA and 0.346 AVG and just an 8.2% strikeout rate. They already have the leagues lowest strikeout rate and I think they absolutely RAKE in this matchup and against the Blue Jays bullpen.

Tier 2 MLB Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible. My strategy is to have the volatile stacks paired with the Tier 1 stacks that have a higher success rate.

Los Angeles Dodgers 20-40%

Drew Pomeranz is annoying this season to opposing teams. He has only given up 4 or more runs on four occasions and in 14 innings against the Dodgers in 2019 he has allowed just 5 ER (but 3 of them were HRs). With the home run upside that the Dodgers have and a few of their bats heating up finally, I think they get the better of Drew in the 4th matchup against him.

New York Mets 20-40%

While I think people will be on the Braves today (they’re on fire) I think I want to target the other side and roll with the Mets against Max Fried who looked like he was turning a corner until he got ripped up in his last start. The Braves have a 5.3 IRT and the Mets are sitting at just 4.3 implied runs. They’ll be super low owned and have upside with Cano swinging the bat well.

Atlanta Braves 20-40%

Yes, they’re in play because their lineup is supernova right now and Ozzie Albies is the hottest hitter on the planet. He’s still too cheap, too! This lineup is easy to stack and too cheap all over.

Pittsburg Pirates 20-40%

Jordan Zimmerman looks like he’ll get the start for the Tigers on Wednesday night. He was horrendous in 30.1 IP in his first six starts of the season. He hasn’t pitched in the bigs since April 25th but he had given up 20 earned runs and 6 home runs in those games. Yikes.

This is my personal strategy to use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer for MLB MME

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8CFJIHayzg

1. Cut all pitchers out of my player pool that I know I 100% DO NOT WANT

   1. Add in all the pitchers I am okay with the optimizer using and then put 3-5% minimum exposure on my favorite pitchers (the above pitching pool). This ensures that they show up in at least 7-10 out of my 150 lineups.

2. Identify all teams I want to stack

   1. If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters for MME
   2. If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 160-180%
   3. Leave 20-40% stack exposure to allow the optimizer to fill in some random optimized stacks according to your pitcher pool to have some unbiased lineups

3. Prepare my 150 entry settings

   1. 3 uniques
   2. optimal mode
   3. DFS Army points
   4. Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
   5. Maximum exposure cap of 60% is how I roll with it. The higher the exposure cap the more “all-in” you will be on a player or two (which I am not a fan of for MLB right now)
   6. Set random stack setting to 4-3 for FanDuel and 5-2 for DraftKings
4. Run the optimizer
   1. Look at the batters used in the stacks. Did I create 100 Houston lineups and only get 5 George Springers? Okay, use the like/love/adore buttons or boost his projection until I get more of him. Did I get 50 out of 50 Boston stacks with Jackie Bradley and no J.D. Martinez? Boost Martinez and potentially use the dislike buttons on Bradley until he’s a bit lower and Martinez is involved.
   2. You have to tinker a bit to get the higher upside guys sometimes ^^^
5. Re-run the optimizer until you get what you’re looking for
   1. Go watch Netflix until the games are over and your daily fantasy sports entries are final
   2. Make a plate of chips and salsa, too
      I slapped this video together during the kiddos’ nap time to show you the ease of use with the DFS Army optimizer. I hope it helps seeing it on video in conjunction with the article

Closing

I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
Twitter me @DFSnDONUTS