Donuts to Dollars

The GPP/MME playbook is more or less a foundation to build upon for your DFS tournament strategy and mass-multi entry (MME) adventures. I personally am a full-time MME player across all major platforms each night. The strategy I have laid out for you is where I personally am with how I plan on attacking the slate. Hit me up on Twitter  @DFSnDONUTS and you can also find me on YouTube | Twitch  | iTunes with supplemental commentary and teaching. You’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports.

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MLB DFS Pitching Pool for MME

Kyle Gibson has a nice matchup against a team that can’t hit right-handed pitching very well but his price tag is nothing special. I think there are guys priced cheaper today that are more volatile but have a similar or even a higher ceiling at less ownership. It’s a great day for MME and an even better day to target the volatile mid-tier price range of pitchers. Let’s toss him in our player pool on FanDuel and leave him out on DraftKings.

Merrill Kelly is another mid-range pitcher with a solid ceiling and a decent floor baked into his price due to his soft matchup against the Blue Jays. Kelly has limited opposing hitters to a 28% hard hit rate over his last two starts and has scored 14.95, 19.80, 12.80 and 35.65 in 4 out of his last 5 starts. He had a horrendous outing where he scored -9.65 mixed in there but that appears to be the outlier since May 11th.

Zach Plesac has a tough matchup against the New York Yankees and is currently an underdog. Plesac has some good stuff and has scored 11.00 and 24.75 DraftKings points in his first two MLB starts against the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox. He’ll be extremely low-owned against the Yankees and clearly has a solid ceiling at his price point.

Brett Anderson has a tough draw against the Rangers in hot weather with the wind blowing out. He’ll be 1-2% owned tonight while the Rangers batters might carry moderate ownership. Brett is a great DraftKings target as he has scored 19.9, 11.3, 13.0, and 18.3 points in 4 out of his last 6 starts. The concern is that he also has scored -0.5 and 5.2 points in his other two starts and plays in Texas tonight. Embrace the volatility!

MME Pitchers I’ll give a minimum 3-5%

Brandon Woodruff is priced so nicely on DraftKings at 7.8k. He’s likely going to pop off in our DFS Army optimizer at that price point against the Pirates and their 3.6 IRT. Woodruff is currently a -252 Vegas odds favorite at home, too. Recency bias might keep his ownership down because he was beat down in his last start but the four prior starts in May he scored 31.10, 23.90, 23.00, and 39.40 DraftKings points. He’s my favorite pitcher on the entire slate on DraftKings specifically. He can be in your pool on FanDuel, but I prefer Kyle Gibson over him if you are keeping your pitching pool a bit tighter.

Tyler Mahle fits the mold perfectly for the type of MME pitcher I like to target. He has upside, he’s affordable, and he’s volatile. His ownership will be low, the Phillies are -155 favorites and have a 5.3 implied run total. Mahle has scored 25.10, 18.05, 23.30, 2.65, and 21.05 DraftKings points in his last five starts. His score is buoyed by the fact that he has 34 K’s in his last 28.1 innings pitched.

Lance Lynn continues to show up in this article because he’s way underrated this season and has elite statistics and fantasy scores with just an upper-middle tier price tag. While his price tag does continue to rise, I prefer him over Kyle Gibson and Jacob deGrom in the same price range. Lynn has scored at least 21.55 DraftKings points in 5 starts starts! He has 41 Ks in 33.1 IP since May and has not given up more than 3 ER in any start (5 straight quality starts, too!).

Andrew Heaney was very good at the end of the 2018 season and he has picked up where he left off in 2019. Through two starts this season, Heaney has pitched 11 innings, thrown 85 and then 92 pitches, and struck out 8 and 10 batters. While he has given up 2 HRs in both starts, he has only allowed 8 men to reach base, meaning 50% of the hits he’s given up are home runs. There is no way that stays for the remainder of the 2019 season. If I am paying up tonight it’s for Heaney and Lynn and fading those elite priced arms.

Single Entry GPP Pitchers

With Lance Lynn being super low owned every single time he’s on the mound (people are not forgiving his past as easily as I have) combined with his floor and upside he has shown, he’s my number one FanDuel option. He’s everything I look for when targeting a single entry pitcher and I am not going to overthink this one.

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Specific Daily Fantasy MLB Stacks and Teams to Target for Stacking for GPPs and MME

When I select my stacks I like to run through the trending tab, batter matchups tab, top-10 lists for a bunch of different stats, and the top rated players within the Research Station. I set the FanDuel stacks to 4-3 and the DraftKings stacks to 5-2 in the DFS Army optimizer.

 

Tier 1 Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I want to stack with my highest exposure. Whether you decide to use the controlled stacks (example below) or the randomized stack exposure (as I do, the example provided), I’ll have my highest percentage on the Tier 1 teams).

Los Angeles Angels 40-60%

Marco Gonzales has turned back into a pumpkin, allowing 25 ERs and 49 base runners in his last 30.2 IP (including 10 ERs in 4.2 IP in his last start against these same Angels). The Angels bats get to see him in back to back starts and he’s in poor form as it already is. Yes, please!

Milwaukee Brewers 40-60%

They have a massive 6.0 IRT and their bats look like they might be waking up. They should have Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustaka, and Christian Yelich all in the lineup against Rookie Davis. That’s a murderers row of left-handed hitters for Davis to face off against.

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Tier 2 Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings

These are the teams I am generally using to hedge my pitcher investment and/or don’t have a clear read on what might happen but understand extreme outcomes are possible.

Houston Astros 10-30%

They are not hot right now and their lineup is full of guys you’d be surprised to be dawning an Astros uniform. However, because of the misfit lineup they will likely be lower owned and their price tags are all pretty affordable. It’s rare to get a Houston stack at an affordable price in a nice matchup. If the Astros can power through Gabriel Ynoa early in the game, then they should get to feast on that miserable bullpen of the Orioles.

Washington Nationals 20-40%

The opposing left-handed pitcher, Nick Margevicius, has allowed 25 men to reach base in his last 12 innings pitched. You can’t put that many men on base against the Nationals who have a few guys with speed on the base paths. On top of that, he’s allowed 6 HRs and 15 ERs in those 12 innings. Did I bury the lead there?

Los Angeles Dodgers 10-20%

Drew Pomeranz has given up 13 ERs and 3 HRs in his last 4 IP. He hasn’t made it through 3 IP since May 19th and the Dodgers can light up the scoreboard with home runs in a hurry. While I think their potential might not be as high as other teams on the slate due to the park factor and form their bats are in, they are a viable MME option.

Kansas City Royals 30-40%

Ian Nova has given up 15 ERs and 7 HRs in just 23 IP since May 11th. He’s actually given up multiple HRs in 2 out of his last 3 starts and 14 ERs and 6 HRs in those 17 IP. It looks much worse when we view it like that, doesn’t it? With how poorly he is pitching combined with how low-owned the Royals likely will be, we have a perfect MME situation to target their bats.

Chicago White Sox 30-40%

Homer Bailey is back to living up his reputation as a batting practice pitcher. He’s given up 14 ERs, 4 HRs, and 26 base runners in his last 9.2 innings pitched. That’s right, in barely just 1 full game of pitching that’s what he has allowed. The White Sox are a volatile offense but their matchup is as good as it gets.

Remaining Exposure Percentage

Any remaining exposure percentage that is leftover I am going to allow the optimizer to fill in at random. Baseball is incredibly volatile and hard to predict. While we can project outcomes, predicting them is inherently a losing battle. Allowing the DS to plug in stacks embraces the random factor that MLB DFS has to offer.

Or if you want to have controlled stacks and select the specific players you want to be used and in what type of stacks then you can used the controlled hitter stack setting. This is just an example and I randomly clicked through quickly and was able to pump out 50 lineups in a flash. I would also make sure the stack percentage was at 100% on each side for a real optimized CSV file.

Domination Station DFS Optimizer for GPP’s and Mass-Multi Entering (MME)

This is how I personally use the DFS Army Domination Station optimizer for MLB MME

1. Cut all pitchers out of my player pool that I know I 100% DO NOT WANT

   1. Add in all the pitchers I am okay with the optimizer using and then put 3-5% minimum exposure on my favorite pitchers (the above pitching pool). This ensures that they show up in at least 7-10 out of my 150 lineups.

2. Identify all teams I want to stack

   1. If using controlled stacks then create my player pool of hitters for MME
   2. If using the randomized stacks (which I do) then I begin to create percentages for all my favorite teams to target adding up to 160-180%
   3. Leave 20-40% stack exposure to allow the optimizer to fill in some random optimized stacks according to your pitcher pool to have some unbiased lineups

3. Prepare my 150 entry settings

   1. 3 uniques
   2. optimal mode
   3. DFS Army points
   4. Make sure allow opposing pitchers is unchecked
   5. Maximum exposure cap of 60% is how I roll with it. The higher the exposure cap the more “all-in” you will be on a player or two (which I am not a fan of for MLB right now)
   6. Set random stack setting to 4-3 for FanDuel and 5-2 for DraftKings
4. Run the optimizer
   1. Look at the batters used in the stacks. Did I create 100 Houston lineups and only get 5 George Springers? Okay, use the like/love/adore buttons or boost his projection until I get more of him. Did I get 50 out of 50 Boston stacks with Jackie Bradley and no J.D. Martinez? Boost Martinez and potentially use the dislike buttons on Bradley until he’s a bit lower and Martinez is involved.
   2. You have to tinker a bit to get the higher upside guys sometimes ^^^
5. Re-run the optimizer until you get what you’re looking for
   1. Go watch Netflix until the games are over
   2. Make a plate of chips and salsa, too

What’s Next?

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Closing

I really hope this helps you get your feet under you at the beginning of this MLB season for Daily Fantasy. Please subscribe to me on the following platforms and I would love to hear from you on Twitter or in our member service in my #Donut-Shop coaching channel!

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