Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @mutt_18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Count Breakdown:
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (-180)
This game is opening at 8 runs, so Vegas doesn’t expect much offense here. Shaun Anderson will make another start for the Giants, so far he’s 1-1 on the year with a 4.09 ERA. His K upside isn’t anything to write home about, but the Mets are a decent opponent for strikeouts as they K at a 24% rate. Zack Wheeler on the other hand, has had a really solid year and gets a Giants team that hasn’t been an offense to fear at all this year. His strikeouts are way up this year and he gets a really solid matchup against this bad hitting San Francisco team. This isn’t a game I’d stack with hitters on for either side. A few one offs are all I would use here, Anderson in GPPs or as an SP2 on DraftKings and Wheeler is a great play on both sites.
SF
5- star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Shaun Anderson
GPP Note: SF is striking out at just above a 24% rate against RHP this season.
NYM
5-star plays: Zack Wheeler
4-star plays: Michael Conforto
GPP Note: The Mets are striking out at a 23.5% rate against RHP this season. If you’re going to attack Anderson, do it with the Mets left handed hitters.
Atlanta Braves (-130) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
This game opens with a total of 9.5 runs. I like Foltynewicz a bit in this matchup as the Pirates do strikeout against RHPs, however they also hit them very well and he hasn’t been very sharp all year as shown by his 6.10 ERA. Chris Archer is now someone that we can pick on these days, his ERA is just under 6 and he’s been giving up a lot of HRs since joining the Pirates. For bats you can stack both teams here. I’d try to stack most of the LHB’s on each team with a few exceptions for the Braves power hitting RHBs.
ATL
5- star plays: Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers, Mike Foltynewicz
GPP Note: Atlanta is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
PIT
5-star plays: Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: The Pirates are striking out at under a 21% rate against RHP this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
This game looks like it’ll open around a total of 9 runs. Daniel Norris actually gets a decent matchup here, as the Rays have really struggled against LHPs so far this year. The Rays are still undecided on a starter, but we’ll likely see an opener with a long reliever who I really won’t have interest in given the size of the slate.
TB
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 30% rate against LHP this season.
DET
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Norris (GPP only), Niko Goodrum, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: This really isn’t an exciting game by any means for offense. If anything I’d use Norris in some GPP lines with some one offs.
Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals
This game looks like it’ll open with a total of around 10.0 runs. Ryan Weber offers no upside as the starter, as he won’t go deep into the game, and he got lit up by the Indians in his last start. Duffy is a bit more intriguing though, as he has been pitching decently this year, and the Red Sox haven’t been crushing lefties like they were last year. I think you can make a valid argument that you can stack both sides, specifically Red Sox righties, and Royals lefties with this run total.
BOS
5-star plays: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis, Christian Vazquez for value.
GPP Note: Boston is striking out at just over a 20% rate against LHP this season.
KC
5-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon
4-star plays: Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert, Danny Duffy
GPP Note: The Royals are striking out at over a 22% rate vs RHP this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-150)
The game looks like it’ll open around 9.5 runs. Both of these pitchers are very hittable, especially Mahle who is averaging almost 2 HRs/9IP so you can stack up those Cardinals for sure, with a special emphasis on their lefties. Mikolas HR/9 is actually a bit higher than Mahle’s so he is someone that we can target as well. Stack up both sides in this game. I like the Reds lefties here a lot.
CIN
5-star plays: Derek Dietrich
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Senzel, Jose Peraza
GPP Note: The Reds are striking out at over a 25% rate this season against RHP.
STL
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Matt Wieters, Dexter Fowler
GPP Note: The Cardinals are striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
The game looks like it’ll open around 9-9.5 runs. Caleb Smith has actually been really good so far this year, but gets a tough matchup against this powerful Brewers offense who always performs better at home. Brandon Woodruff has been really good this year, and after the Marlins offensive explosion on Tuesday, they should go back to their year long numbers which is bad against both RHPs and LHPs. He has a really good matchup here with some K upside as well.
MIA
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Caleb Smith
GPP Note: Miami is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP this season.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Brandon Woodruff
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal, all Brewers LHH’s.
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
This game looks like it’ll open around 9.5 runs. We’ve got two solid starters here, as Jon Gray will face off with Jose Quintana. The Rockies are a completely different team on the road, but they do hit LHP’s much better. Depending on how the wind is blowing their power RHH’s can have a really good game here. Gray can have some success against the Cubs here as he has a bit of K upside in this one, and I like him more if the wind is blowing in.
COL
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia, Ian Desmond, Jon Gray
GPP Note: The Rockies are striking out at a 26.6% rate against LHP this season.
CHC
5-star plays: Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Jose Quintana
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP in 2019.
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Houston Astros (-185) @ Seattle Mariners
This game opened with a total of 8 runs so it doesn’t seem that there’ll be much scoring here. People will be running to Houston against a LHP here, the problem is that they just aren’t the same team right now with how many injuries they have right now. I still like them but I think we can be selective with our stacks here depending on how the order shakes out. For the Mariners side I’m maybe using Vogelbach as a one-off incase he gets a hold of a fastball, but other than that Verlander is in a great spot here.
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander
4-star plays: Jake Marisnick
GPP Note: Houston is striking out at under an 20% rate against LHP this season.
SEA
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Seattle is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season and Verlander is still one of the best in the game.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians (EVEN)
The game opened with a run total of 8.5. Both of these pitchers have had their struggles this year, but Bauer is better at home and I expect some positive regression coming his way but the Twins are still a powerful offense. I like the Indians LHH’s here as a low owned stack as Berrios is very susceptible to HRs away from his home field.
MIN
5- star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Jose Berrios
GPP Note: The Twins are striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.
CLE
5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Trevor Bauer, Carlos Santana, Jared Luplow
GPP Note: The Indians are striking out at a 23.6% rate against RHP this season.
New York Yankees (-195) @ Toronto Blue Jays
This game opens with a total of 10 runs as neither pitcher has been sharp this year. J.A. Happ has looked absolutely lost this year, and faces off against his old team that know his tendencies better than anyone. Edwin Jackson really shouldn’t be pitching in the bigs right now as he’s been lit up every start he’s had and I don’t expect it to stop here. You can stack both sides in this one.
NYY
5- star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, D.J. LeMahieu, Luke Voit
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
TOR
5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Justin Smoak, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: The Blue Jays are striking out at nearly a 25% rate against LHP this season.
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (-170)
This game looks like it’ll open on the higher side of 10.5 runs which is a bit surprising in my opinion. Cashner faces off against his old team and for the most part has actually been limiting the amount of damage so far this year, aside from his last start. He doesn’t have the K upside you want at all even though the Rangers strikeout at a high rate. Jurado is just so-so but has a decent matchup against the O’s here as they’ve struggled to hit right handed pitching.
BAL
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dwight Smith Jr.
GPP Note: The Orioles are striking out at 22.4% rate against RHP this season.
TEX
5-star plays: Shin Soo Choo
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Asdrubal Cabrera
GPP Note: The Rangers are striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
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Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. Mike Fiers is a fly ball pitcher and the Angels don’t strike much at all to righties or lefties. I expect him to get touched up a bit in this one. Skaggs being a lefty also doesn’t play in his favor as the A’s are a very right handed heavy lineup, so there should be some fireworks in this one.
OAK
5-star plays: Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Steven Piscotty
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Oakland is striking out at under a 21% rate against RHP this season.
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani, Cesar Puello, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: The Angels are striking out at only a 17% rate against RHP this season.
Washington Nationals (EVEN) @ San Diego Padres
This game opened with a total of 7.5 this morning. We have two solid lefties squaring off here in Patrick Corbin and Joey Lucchesi. Corbin however has the better matchup here as the Nationals have some right handed bats that can get to Lucchesi. Corbin also had a rough start his last time out and gets a major park upgrade in San Diego, so I expect him to bounce back.
WAS
5- star plays: Patrick Corbin, Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Howie Kendrick, Trea Turner, Victor Robles
GPP Note: Washington is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
SD
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 27% rate against LHP this season.
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