Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Eric aka @Razzle11Grinds on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Count Breakdown:
Chicago White Sox @ Washington Nationals (-175)
This game has a total of 10.5 runs. Covey has been atrocious on the road so far in 2019 while Sanchez was really sharp in his return from the IL last start. Covey has more walks than strikeouts on the season so we have to have some GPP interest in the Nationals bats in this one. The total being so high is extremely attractive.
CWS
5- star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: The White Sox have a 27% strikeout rate against RHP in 2019.
WAS
5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Anibal Sanchez, Matt Adams
GPP Note: The Nationals are striking out at just under a 25% rate against RHP in 2019.
LA Dodgers (-155) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
This game has a total sitting at 9.5 runs. Maeda has struggled a bit away from LA this season and the Diamondbacks got to him early in the season for 3 HRs. This is a tough spot for Duplantier to be making his second career start. The Dodgers offense is extremely dangerous, especially when it comes to facing RHP. I like this game to play over the total.
LAD
5- star plays: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Max Muncy
GPP Note: The Dodgers are striking out at less than a 20% rate against RHP this season.
ARI
5-star plays: Ketel Marte (BvP)
4-star plays: Adam Jones
GPP Note: Arizona is striking out at just under a 24% rate against RHP in 2019.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115) @ San Diego Padres
This game opened with a total of 8.5 this morning. My first look into this game has me on the Philadelphia side quite a bit. I really like their LHBs and I think that Arrieta has a chance to see an uptick in Ks against a very RH heavy lineup. Quantrill has been strong to RHBs, especially in drawing groundballs but has struggled mightily at the ML level with LHBs.
PHI
5- star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Jay Bruce, Jake Arrieta
GPP Note: Philadelphia is striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
SD
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: SD is striking out at over a 27% rate against RHP this season.
Atlanta Braves (-125) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
This game opens with a total of 9.5 runs. I actually like both of the pitchers in this game so it makes it tough to decide where I want to go in a game with a 9.5 total. Gausman is my preference of the two pitchers but Pittsburgh isn’t striking out against RHP this season. The LHBs of the Braves are in the best spot of the game tonight.
ATL
5- star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Kevin Gausman, Nick Markakis
GPP Note: Atlanta is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
PIT
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte
GPP Note: The Pirates are striking out at under a 21% rate against RHP this season.
New York Yankees (-210) @ Toronto Blue Jays
This game opens with a total of just 9. This is an interesting game as Paxton is a huge favorite on the road, even though he has struggled horribly on the road in 2019. Thornton gets absolutely smashed at home so far this season. I am wondering if we might not see an HR barrage in this one!
NYY
5- star plays: James Paxton, Luke Voit
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks
GPP Note: The Yankees are striking out at just a 22% rate against RHP this season.
TOR
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: The Blue Jays are striking out at nearly a 25% rate against LHP this season.
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Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians (-130)
The game opened with a run total of 9. The Twins have a TON of at-bats against Carrasco as a roster, 207 to be exact. They have done quite a bit of damage to him over the years and this season is a strange one for Carrasco as he has already given up 14 HRs. Perez has shown some kinks in his armor recently and while I believe in his adjustments, I do see some regression continuing.
MIN
5- star plays: Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: The Twins are striking out at just a 20% rate against RHP this season.
CLE
5-star plays: Carlos Santana (BvP)
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: The Indians are striking out at a 24% rate against LHP this season.
San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets (-135)
This game has an initial total of 8.5 runs. This game is really tough to figure out and my initial thought is to just ignore it. Both teams aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard, while both starting pitchers aren’t exactly full of fantasy goodness. Beede looked solid his last time out against the Marlins while Vargas has looked solid in his two starts since returning from the IL.
SF
5- star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria
GPP Note: SF is striking out at just under a 25% rate against LHP this season.
NYM
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jason Vargas, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: The Mets are striking out at a 24% rate against RHP this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-175) @ Detroit Tigers
This game opened with a total of 8.5 runs. This looks like an excellent spot for Morton to rack up some strikeouts while his offense could stay hot. I am a big fan of Turnbull overall and I think he could surprise in this one a little bit. I have a feeling that TB is going to carry some stack ownership on this slate.
TB
5-star plays: Charlie Morton, Austin Meadows
4-star plays: Avisail Garcia, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: TB is striking out at a 23% rate against RHP this season.
DET
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Turnbull (GPP leverage), Niko Goodrum
GPP Note: The Tigers are striking out at just under a 27% rate vs RHP this season.
Miami Marlins @ Milwaukee Brewers (-240)
The game has an initial total of 9 runs. The Marlins absolutely waxed the Brewers on Tuesday night. That will put me right back on the Brewers bats in this spot, even if it’s not as sexy of a spot for the LHBs that Tuesday night was. Jimmy Nelson is making his return to the majors after a lengthy absence following shoulder surgery. It will be interesting to see what they say about his cap in this spot as I think he offers some upside if he’s able to get us 6 innings.
MIA
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Miami is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP this season.
MIL
5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: MIL is striking out at just under a 26% rate vs RHP
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (-170)
I am surprised to see this game open with a total of 9.5 runs. Means has been a really solid SP for the Orioles so far this season. My initial thought on this game is that there are going to be some K’s had by the pitchers. I will be interested in seeing what the weather is like in Texas. An LHP is very capable of holding down the Rangers offense, outside of a couple of guys.
BAL
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: John Means, Renato Nunez
GPP Note: The Orioles are striking out at just over a 27% rate against LHP this season.
TEX
5-star plays: Mike Minor, Hunter Pence
4-star plays: Logan Forsythe, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: The Rangers are striking out at a 28% rate against LHP this season.
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Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs (-115)
This game opened with a run total of just 7.5 runs. Looking at our weather station, this game is going to be a bit cool at the start and the wind should be blowing in as of this morning. I have a hard time trusting Yu Darvish to do anything but walk batters at this point, especially at home. With the hitting environment the way it is, I don’t see myself trying to get some game stacks at this point.
COL
5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
4-star plays: German Marquez, David Dahl
GPP Note: The Rockies are striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP this season.
CHC
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward
GPP Note: The Cubs are striking out at just a 23% rate against RHP in 2019.
Boston Red Sox (-240) @ Kansas City Royals
This game opened with a total of 8.5 runs. This game is pretty simple in my mind as we get Sale against a team that some people thinks doesn’t strike out. We know the upside Sale offers and the Boston offense offers us a lot of HR ability, especially against a pitcher that has given up 12 HRs so far in 2019. Junis gave up 32 HRs in 2018.
BOS
5-star plays: Rafael Devers, Chris Sale
4-star plays: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Boston is striking out at just under a 21% rate against RHP this season.
KC
5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: NONE
GPP Note: The Royals are striking out at over a 25% rate vs LHP this season.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-140)
The game has a total set at 9 runs. If we go by BvP, we should be targeting both offenses in this spot. The problem I have with going only off of that is the fact that Hudson has been really solid of late and DeSclafani has been tough on RHBs aside from giving up HRs to them. I definitely would prefer Hudson and his massive groundball rate over DeSclafani at this point.
CIN
5-star plays: Derek Dietrich
4-star plays: Anthony DeSclafani, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: The Reds are striking out at over a 25% rate this season against RHP.
STL
5-star plays: Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Dakota Hudson, Marcell Ozuna
GPP Note: The Cardinals are striking out at under a 23% rate against RHP this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels (-120)
This game has opened with a total set at 9 runs. We will have to pay attention as the day goes on because both of these teams used an opener the last time the games projected SPs were used. We know that both teams rarely strike out so there could be some sneaky offense in play as part of the late night hammer.
OAK
5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Khris Davis
GPP Note: Oakland is striking out at under a 21% rate against RHP this season.
LAA
5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Shohei Ohtani, Cesar Puello
GPP Note: The Angels are striking out at only a 17% rate against RHP this season.
Houston Astros (-155) @ Seattle Mariners
This game opened with a total of 9 runs. If Houston was perfectly healthy, this would be a great spot to stack as the late night hammer. I still like them but I think we can be selective with our stacks in this spot. We definitely need to see the lineup they run out there with guys like Straw, Fisher, and Kemp.
HOU
5-star plays: Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley
4-star plays: Brad Peacock, Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Houston is striking out at under an 18% rate against RHP this season.
SEA
5-star plays: Edwin Encarnacion
4-star plays: Kyle Seager
GPP Note: Seattle is striking out at over a 25% rate against RHP this season.
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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